Hi Everyone,
This might be straight forward but wanted to run it by you for sanity check. Villain is fairly new to the table, not even an orbit in and is probably in his 50's. Basically i flopped 2 pair from the big blind, triple barreled and faced a river shove on the river which live usually means I am beat. I am getting about 3 to 1 but how often am I good here? Turning hands into bluffs just doesn't seem to be in older player's vocabulary so the question really is, does he EVER do this with just one pair hands like KQ or sometimes a limped AK?

LIVE POKER HAND TEMPLATE
*******************************************

EFFECTIVE STACK
###############
($ ) 230

PREFLOP
######## 5 way limp making the preflop pot = $10
Seat 1: BTN
Seat 2: SB
Seat 3: Hero in the BB has 69
Seat 4:
Seat 5: Villain
Seat 6:
Seat 7:
Seat 8:
Seat 9:
Seat 10:

FLOP ($ ) 10
#### K69
i bet $10, villain calls, another caller, everyone else folds

TURN ($ ) 40
##### J
i bet $35, Villain calls, other villain folds

RIVER ($ ) 110
##### 2
i bet $70 he goes all in after what seemed like 5 to 10 seconds. He covers me and I have $120 behind

So after his all in the is $370 in the pot and I have $120 to call which is ~ 3 to 1. Am I ever good here 1 out of 4 times? I don't think that he ever has a 2X two pair hand in his range so basically any two pair hand in his range bets mine like KJ or J9. Sets beat me, and imo he never shoves with a missed draw like 78 and he is shoving for value. I hate folding getting 3 to 1 but I can't find any hands I beat seeing that live players are showdown monkeys and will just call my river pair with stubborn top pair hands.

Why so much on the turn? You made this pot huge. Just bet $20-$25 there.

Unless this particular villain has given you some kind of indication that he might be donk-shove-bluffing riv, or thinking his TPTK is good enough to shove, then its a CLEAR FOLD imho. Since he just sat down & you don't know much about his play, you might be wise to wait for a better spot.

V almost always has KJ/66/99 if he's old and shoving river on a board like this unless he weirdly slow-played something like KK/AA, but he would probably just call with AA facing 3 barrels or else he would have raised earlier. No way is he shoving river with AK/KQ, he would probably just call with either of those and with AK probably would have raised flop. Seems like a pretty easy fold.

This is a crying call.

The simple fact is, AK, KQ, Kx, and a ******ed slow played AA can easily shove this river.

We get raped by KJ and K9 and J9 which are all hands definitely in our villain's range. But if we include the other hands we do beat, then this river is a crying call.

Or put another way, at 1/2nl, players are notorious for over shoving TPGK so whenever we can beat TPGK we will almost always be in the right calling.

We must play completely different 1/2nl games. Games I play in, villains are notorious for over shoving TPGK hands like its the stone cold nuts.

It is extremely rare for me to see someone river shove a one pair hand that's not an overpair when more than 100bb deep...especially someone over the age of 50 that is probably playing their own hand and not really thinking about what the other player might have.

Villain could have QT for nuts, or bluff gone bad, or could be overvaluing one pair. Gotta call considering pot odds. It never ceases to amaze me what these donks will shove their money in with.

On a side note, I'd bet less on turn.

Easy fold, I expect you're crushed. After he called your pot sized flop bet and nearly pot sized turn bet, what do you think he's calling with? Gutterball doesn't make sense. Set seems most likely. There's been no reason for him to pop you and risk slowing you down since you're firing large every street and he's in position.

New vill not even an orbit into the game, I'd rather give him credit than cash. Wait until you have a line on his play before making hero calls. Given the action post flop, you know he's got something he likes a bunch.

FWIW,

I will say that a fold is definitely not terrible by any stretch.

And I will also admit that a call is a helluva lot closer to 0EV than I would like.

So yeah, I could get behind a fold here.

I would definitely take a 25$ turn and $50 river bet line here. You don't want Kx folding.

Whenever I call in these spots vs older guys or nitty ladies they always have it. Just my experience.

Thanks for all the responses guys. At the time i shared the same sentiments dgiharris talked about in post #5. I was trying to find some hands he could spaz with or have misplayed/slowplayed that I beat which would be very few to make this a crying call. I guess I just hate folding after 3 barreling like that. It seems the consensus is that this is mostly a fold ... maaaaayyyyybe a crying call if we have any indication to include some spazz hands in villain's range. I know I have seen some people make spazz moves when the pot gets big and they just get stubborn and don't want to give up the pot (hmm could I be projecting here?) but thats is the exception rather than the norm.

Again, thanks for taking the time to offer your input.

Only one poster included QT for the nuts and nobody included K2 for the 'fish-river-nuts' on this board.

There are so many hands that have us beat that I would fold a nice two pair here.

Something similar happened to me on 2/4 recently. I got a free flop in the BB with Q5 and the flop comes down Q54. I bet 18 into ~24-26 pot and get two callers. Turn is 2 and I bet 60, get minraised and 'level' myself into shoving my remaining 190, because the 'reasonable' draws 67 and 23 did not get there and I have all two pairs beat, but villain shows down A3.

Never completely discount a particular hand that you 'priced out' with your flop bet. We like that villains call with those types of draws, but we need to listen when they scream: 'Hey I got you beat!'

I seem to think the opposite in LSNL games - I assume every player is a fish that will over value single-pair type hands and until they prove otherwise. Curious what others think of this...

In any case, two universal things in LSNL games that should always cause major warning sirens to go off in your brain:
- 4-bets
- river raises

You're facing a big river raise in a limped pot. That's almost never going to be a single pair. I'm too lazy to stove it but I'm almost positive that even if you put in a decent % chance of a spaz bluff from a busted draw, you still don't have enough equity to profitably call.

Stoved it anyway because I was curious :P
I put AA and 98s in V's range to represent the chance of a spaz on the river.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

59 games 0.000 secs 11,800 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.949% 16.95% 00.00% 10 0.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 83.051% 83.05% 00.00% 49 0.00 { AA, JJ, KJs, K9s, K6s, K2s, QTs, 87s, KJo, K9o, K6o, K2o, QTo }


---

990 games 0.001 secs 990,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.919% 91.72% 00.20% 908 2.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 08.081% 07.88% 00.20% 78 2.00 { random }


---


So in the absence of history that this player is tricky enough to bluff raise the river and no strong tells, this is a clear fold even with the 3:1 pot odds offered.



EDIT: Just for kicks, if you were to also include AK to represent an over-valuing of TPTK you improve to 30% equity. AK / KQ really don't make sense to me given the action though.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

71 games 0.000 secs 14,200 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.986% 30.99% 00.00% 22 0.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 69.014% 69.01% 00.00% 49 0.00 { AA, JJ, AKs, KJs, K9s, K6s, K2s, QTs, 87s, AKo, KJo, K9o, K6o, K2o, QTo }


---

71 games 0.000 secs 14,200 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.986% 30.99% 00.00% 22 0.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 69.014% 69.01% 00.00% 49 0.00 { AA, JJ, AKs, KJs, K9s, K6s, K2s, QTs, 87s, AKo, KJo, K9o, K6o, K2o, QTo }


---

59 games 0.000 secs 11,800 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.949% 16.95% 00.00% 10 0.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 83.051% 83.05% 00.00% 49 0.00 { AA, JJ, KJs, K9s, K6s, K2s, QTs, 87s, KJo, K9o, K6o, K2o, QTo }


---

990 games 0.001 secs 990,000 games/sec

Board: Kc 6d 9h Jd 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 91.919% 91.72% 00.20% 908 2.00 { 9d6c }
Hand 1: 08.081% 07.88% 00.20% 78 2.00 { random }


---

^ Thanks for doing the calcs! Fwiw, I desperately wanted to include AK and AA to make the math work. But as blargle mentioned, top pair hands usually just call the river as opposed to overshoving.

This is a fold. People rarely do this with one-way hands, especially considering that you've made a "serious" 1/2 NL bet of $70 into him on the river. There's no worse two pair and he does not have a naked King often enough to justifiably call.

KJ, K9, QT are all out there and pretty easy for him to have given the action.

Your turn bet was a bit too big, leading to this bloated pot. The odds you're being offered are insane, but you're literally almost never good here. This is a sigh fold.

It's not necessarily a bad assumption. However, it's a mistake of major proportions to make that assumption, then stick with it. That's something I see all the time: solid player playing plain vanilla poker against a table full of fish. I join that table, and the plain vanilla player doesn't realize that Kyuubimon is thinking along the same lines they are. They assume I'm a fish making fishy plays and they don't see it coming, and realize what hit them only after I've made a big dent in their stacks or felted them.

Five limpers in an unraised pot: the field wasn't thinned out at all; hands weren't defined in the slightest. Look at Hero's line here: $10 on a flop that's as dry as the Mojave in July, $35 on the turn, $70 on the river. That's a line that says he's milking this pot for all it's worth, and he still gets shoved over. That's no bluff, and Hero's bottom two can't be any good here. I would give the vill credit for a flopped set and move on.

I also think the vill made a mistake here. If I were in that pot with (9,9) or (6,6) I'd've made it $15 on top on the flop to represent TPGK, then the cat gets out of the bag on either the turn or river, depending on where I believe I have the best chance of getting a stack-off.