Full ring, 1/2 NLH. Started the hand with ~500, Villain covers, has maybe 700.
Villain is a regular in the game, but very very bad. Plays 80 pct of hands easily, hates to fold.

He is in the HJ, and calls with 2 callers in front. C/o folds, Button, and SB call. I am BB with QQ. I raise to $20. 2 Calls one being Villain.

flop
822

I lead for $60

player between us folds, Villain calls.

turn
9
I bet $60

he calls pretty quickly.

River
T

I'm not a fan of this river, although im not sure what I was hoping for. at this point the pot is large, around $300. He is the type of player that would have called 60 once with overs, hoping to hit, or AK thinking it was possibly the best hand, and possibly twice since it was relatively cheap on the turn.

right now i have his range at JT-AK and all pairs. I have no clue where this guy is. so I elect to check, not wanting to lead out and get shoved on. Hoping he checks behind or makes a smallish bet that I can maybe call.

He bets $100. About what I was expecting/hoping for, now what?

JT-AK and all pairs? you're just naming stuff without thinking at all whether it makes sense

what kind of lag limps AK or pairs here preflop?

What do you mean now what? You call. What else would you do?

As played, you call, although I prefer a bet/fold on the river.

His hand looks most like a low to medium pair or something like 87, 98, T9. You'd assume he would realize that he's counterfeited, but stranger things have happened.

I'm kind of missing the LAG part in any of V's play here, but anyway. Bet less flop, bet more turn, c/c or bet/call river. I think V lets you know about any 2 on the turn since he must have done something aggressive in the past for you to peg him as a LAG.

Given this board against a player who "hates to fold," does anyone else like a value checkraise to Villain's river bet?

standard call

he had deuce i guess?

First, I bet more on the turn, something like $140 instead of $60. Aren't we pretty much always ahead here? He doesn't have KK+, and a 2 is unlikely given our pre-flop raise. As played, river is an easy call.

uhhh snapcall? even very bad players fold a deuce to $20 pf and something like 76 otf with that board.

Can we get your reasonings for bet size on flop and turn?

Grunch

If I'm reading this correctly, there's about $68 in the pot and you raise for $60. That's a good bet.

I'd bet a little more there. There's already $120ish in the pot, and you've shown aggressive behavior on previous streets. I'd bet around $90....maybe even a PSB since our villain is a calling station. Depends on my feel for him.

I hear what you are saying, but this feels a bit like MUBS to me. If he did get runner-runner then it's just bad luck for you - He played the hand horribly and got rewarded by two perfect cards. But for a 4:1 price, I doubt I'm folding here. If you think he has you beaten, then fold. But given action and villain, I'd probably call. I'm not sure I would be thrilled with it, but I'd probably call.

If we keep Villain on this exact range, you are crushing it:

Board: 8d 2s 2h 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 17.630% 17.34% 00.29% 30 0.50 { 22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 82.370% 82.08% 00.29% 142 0.50 { QcQs }

There's about 188 in the pot on the turn. 60 is definitely not enough here.

As played at leat call the river. Feels like you left a lot of value out there against villain's range.

@pjhpmc

You included almost no deuces into villain's range. I agree in principle that we have villain's range crushed, but there are definitely some deuces in his range (A2s and maybe also A2o, K2s maybe...) Hard to judge exactly, but some deuces need to be included i assume.

Seems to me like villain is a LAP, Loose and Passive.

Call as played.
I would bet more on the turn, about ~$130-150.

call.

I mean, isn't that what you do with calling stations?

You are correct sah, I left out $60 bucks in my pot calculation.

I didn't put any 2x hands into the build because of our OP's original range estimate of JK-AK and all pairs, which seemed reasonable to me at the time. Our villain flat called the BB PF and then called our 10xBB PFR, so I would like to think that his range would exclude all Ax2x-3x2x kind of hands.

However, if we take OP's original statement of "He plays about 80% of the hands out there" our range significantly changes - But it seemed rather silly to me to include almost every hand in the deck in a calculation. At that point, we might as well hit the "Random" button on PokerStove:

Board: 8d 2h 2s 9c Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.448% 11.39% 00.06% 92 0.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 62s+, 52s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J3o+, T5o+, 95o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 54o }
Hand 1: 88.552% 88.49% 00.06% 715 0.50 { QcQs }

Realistically there are not many 2x hands that would call a 10bb PFR - A2 suited is the only "reasonable" hand I can see in this spot, and even thats a stretch for me. Still, we are dealing with a crazy head person here.....so who knows?

I think calling is the only play. Pot odds are so good, there just arent a ton of hands in his range that really beat you. If he shows up with a hand here then good for him. IMO you got away from it cheap since you kept the pot so small on the turn by only betting 60.

Ya sorry about having no in depth stats or history on the villain, i guess youll just have to trust that in the majority of his time at the table that is my read/his rep.

I agree, bet sizing on the turn was bad, I was too concentrated on not scaring away a med pair/overs, i bet too small.

I was tanking and he said he'd show me one, i picked, he shows a K. (He does things like this as a mindgame and its generally indicative of weakness for him) I thought that was a very odd line for KK, especially for him. I was thinking KT, K9, AK possibly. I decide he bet because he couldnt stand a showdown and not for value.

He tabled k2o, lol. Aside from his loose call and lucky flop, I was just kinda lookin for a line check and if there was anything i could do differently etc. i dont expect to see K2 there very often (or anywhere) but he's bad and mostly loses, so he can have his win

I'm check calling that river all day. I don't like bet folding as we don't get a chance at value from the bluffy hands in his range. check call errr day IMO.

unlucky he had K2... but alot of LAG players are never folding on a paired flop vs. cbet.