2 limpers

Hero raises AdTd 12$

UTG+1 ($22) calls $12
MP ($112) calls $12
Stack sizes are before calling the raise

Flop 9d7d6c

Villians check Hero bets $22

UTG+1 goes all-in for $10

MP raises $54

MP is a huge nit that is likely to limp AK raise all big pairs and limp everything else when he raises he has 2pair, a set, or a straight every time. Is it correct to go all-in here as if i´m calling the flop raise i will have immediate odds on the turn to call again.

my play is to call(all-in) $78 to win $168

With a gutshot and nut flush draw this is a pretty automatic shove. When you play those suited cards you're trying to flop a big draw right? Now you have it so get it all in there.

looks like you are 50% to win and the pot is giving you 2-1. You win this matchup half the time and double your money.?? (someone check my math)

Therefore it looks like a coin flip. I don't like coin flips.

I hope you're kidding here. I think 50% is pretty generous equitywise since there is a 3rd player all in. Probably closer to 35-40 which is fine because he is getting 2:1 to call. That means he triples up his money when he wins.

With a gutser and the nfd it's an easy jam on the flop.

V2 is never folding to ur shove...

...that said, when all the money goes in u'll be getting ~2.25-to-1 on the last $78 u put in the pot w/~40-45% equity (if an ace or ten doesn't help u.)

Your math is kinda right but your conclusion is wrong. Let's go with your original assumption (which might be a little overly optimistic, but probably not enough to change our conclusion much) and say we win the pot 50% and therefore lose 50% (so, in that sense, it is a coin flip). But when we lose, we only lose $78, whereas when we win, we win $168. We're coming out WAY ahead.

ETA: I'm also going with OP's statement that we need to call $78 to win $168. (some of the numbers in the OP don't add up, imo)

Taking OPs numbers at face value (I agree they don't seem to add up quite right)... The pot is laying you a little over 2:1. For the combined Main and side pots.

If you assume hitting the flush or gutshot will win both pots (pocket 10s is the only hand I see in villains range that would cause a chop if you hit the gutter JTd is out since you hold 10d).

You have 9 flush outs and 3 additional gutshot outs unless a Villain has 99.

Since A set is a possibility (in which case 2 of your outs make villain a full house) and potentially another flush draw you need to discount at least 2 outs IMO. So assuming there are 7 flush outs + 3 gutshout outs = 10 outs.

10 outs gives you about 40% or 1.5:1 against hitting either the gutter or flush with 2 cards to come.

So you are 1.5:1 dog to win 2:1 on your money.

Worst case you are up against another flush draw or 9-9 and a set in which case your reduced outs would make you about 2:1 dog to win 2:1 on your money.

You didn't say what your starting stack was but it sounds as if you are saying if you call the $54 you will have $24 left so yes we either fold or put it all in on the flop.

Correct me if I am wrong. But this still sounds pretty much like a toss up.

Only the worst case scenario is a toss up. The average case is ez money.

Assuming OP's original numbers of needing to call $78 to win $168, and let's assume we're a 1.5:1 dog on average (a fairly reasonable estimate):

Win: 40% * $168 = $67.20
Lose: 60% * -$78 = -$46.80

So, on average, every time we make this call in this situation we make $20.40. It's not a toss up, it's a gravy train.

Gallaboardthegravytrain,toottootG

Im never folding this with 100bbs, let alone when villain only has 61bbs.

Exactly I think the 10 out assumption is very reasonable and therefore this is +EV.

Our pot odds are 78/(78+168) = 32%

With 13 outs, we are around 46% to have the best hand by the river. Even if MP has a set (which is unlikely) we are still 30% to win.

This is a clear call because our equity is clearly better than our pot odds.

shove for value

We should have a bankroll which is large enough to sustain variance so that we can always make the mathematically correct play. That is how we will make the most money over time.

If its a coin flip heads up but there's dead money in the pot (meaning we have pot odds of less than 50%) then its always profitable to commit.

Only reasons to fold would be if losing the hand would give us bankroll problems or send us on tilt and cause us to play badly (in which case there are other issues we need to address).