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Originally Posted by pexw
(I have an Ivy league degree if that means anything
It doesn't mean a thing..
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I oftentimes feel that I am better than the average player at the games I play. I have decided to stop playing the 1/3 game for now because the competition there is much stronger. The 1/2 game is usually full of fishy players.
Are you certain of this, or is it wishful thinking? If they play worse, you should be able to tell exactly what mistakes they make, and should have reasons why you believe you're better.
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Here is my dilemma: I have been losing a lot (-$2485 in the last 30 days), and I can't tell if I'm actually a bad player or if it's just bad luck over the last several weeks. If I should expect to continue losing at this rate I need to stop playing because I can't afford it. The reason I play poker is because I want to earn a little side cash doing something that does not involve what I do at my day job - which I enjoy but I like to get away from the computer/desk. I am not a gambler, I always try to make the decisions that are supposedly profitable in the long run. I could do freelance work and earn a guaranteed $30-70/hr instead.
That's a
helluvalot to lose one month. I just got off nearly two years' worth of runbad, and I never booked losses of anywhere near that magnitude. If it's beginning to bother you, then that's the surest sign you should take a good long break to re-asses your game. If I were you, I'd take those freelance assignments, built back your playing 'roll, and advance your primary career for now. Jack "Treetop" Strauss could put his last dime on the table and play his A game. There aren't many who can do that (this includes some high level pros) and for the rest of us, it's a sure-fire disaster waiting to happen.
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I get ahead in almost every session, even when card dead, which I have been for many hours in the past few weeks. I feel that for 95% of the game I do everything very well. But then I lose one or two huge pots to monsters. Like flopping broadway and getting sucked out by a boat OTR. It's not like I'm just spewing and leaking away small amounts at a time, and I'm definitely not a calling station. There are definitely flaws in my game and I'm sure I make tons of mistakes, but overall I feel that I make solid plays. I know my bet-sizing could be better. There are also at least 2-3 BI's that were lost due to just straight up bad play, like shoving with JJ against what I knew was an overpair, and shoving on a 9 outer flush draw against good TAG players.
This looks contradictory. You claim to do 95% very well, and yet confess to making very elementary, very fishy, plays like shoving jacks into higher overpairs, or thin shove-bluffs against good TAGs. If you don't trust your own reads, whose will you trust?
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I have a pretty tight opening range which is position-dependent. I fold to a lot of 3bets. I avoid marginal situations, try to control pot sizing depending on the strength of my hand. I limp/call suited connectors and small pocket pairs in early position.
Another elementary mistake: these kinds of hands should be thrown away from the early positions. Limping in up front is generally a bad idea unless you know your table is unusually weak/tight. You don't know who's in and who's out, whether you'll be playing against big stacks or shorties, whether you're gonna get a look at the flop for the price of a BB, or if it's gonna cost you a raise. Then you have the dubious value of playing a marginal hand with the worst position.
When I get suited connectors up front, they hit the muck without a second thought. If you always fold to a raise behind -- which you should -- all you're doing is donating. Save those chips for when the BB comes around to you.
If I decide to play a suited connector from an early position, I open-raise with it like it was aces. I'd do that if I thought there was a good reason for that play. If I thought I had a good chance to smack around a table filled with FoF players post, if I needed to show observant vills that an early open-raise doesn't always mean AK+, QQ+ for an opening range. Otherwise, no, just no.
Being the first one in with a limp looks weak as all get-out. Even if you hit your long shot, you won't win much with it since it'll be real easy for the players behind to figure you flopped real good when you wake up with a flop c/r, or start betting big OTT.
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I have read a ton of material, most recently Sklansky's Theory of Poker, and am halfway through HOCv1. In other words, I'm pretty sure I have at least something of a grasp of the fundamental concepts of this game, and I believe that I should be handily beating the competition that I play against.
Here is another big mistake. There is no need to "read a ton of material". I have always said I can tell from your Poker library how much of a fish you are. An expansive collection of books, all with pristine pages, means BIG FISH! One or two good volumes with dog eared pages, cracked bindings, and pages filled with high lighter means you're probably someone I don't want in my game. It's more important to study the material, play some, go back to study some more, until you fully understand everything. "Something of a grasp" isn't good enough.
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A little learning is a dan'rous thing
Drink deep or taste not the Pierian Spring
There, shallow draughts intoxicate the brain
And drinking largely sobers us again
Looks to me like you're intoxicated with shallow draughts.
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Is it normal for a decent player to have the kind of bad run that I'm on? Or am I actually just a bad player in denial? In the last 30 days I have played 90 hours at an hourly rate of -$27.70 for a total of -$2485. Does even a bad player have this kind of bad run at 1/2?
I suppose anything's possible, but it's never happened to me.
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Yesterday was a really bad day. I lost two BI's with TPTK. The first one was against 97 UTG who called my raise and flopped two pair, then shoved the river. The second one was with AQs on Q34 flop. I tried to take the pot down with a $75 bet on the flop, but 56 called and hit his straight on the turn. I was ready to check/fold the river but then I hit the wheel and had to call villain's shove. I lost a third BI with T9 against AT on JQK flop.
Are you reflexively calling for stacks with TPTK? It's a better hand for fixed limit because it only costs you a few bets when it gets cracked. In NLHE, it can cost you your entire stack. TPTK is a good hand, but it's vulnerable, and most likely to win you small pots, but lose big ones. TPTK goes way down in value at no-limit. It's a hand you need to learn to get away from when things don't look favorable, or your vills are determined to defy all your efforts to keep pots on the small side, especially when stacks are deep.
"I was ready to check/fold the river but then I hit the wheel and had to call villain's shove".
There's no such thing as "have to" call! Given the vill's shove, what
else could he possibly have other than a six? If he was bluffing, a Wheel won't win a dime more than a pair of queens.
"I lost a third BI with T9 against AT on JQK flop"
You seem to have a weakness for dead end straights. Flopping a KQJ to a T9 isn't a good thing. AT has you nutted right there, and any AK, KT, QT, JT can certainly come along with their big pair, gutter draws. You should have realized that that flop hits a lot of hands, and 2nd nuts is nothing to get excited over.
I see a tale of woe punctuated by clear instances of dubious decision-making, failure to read the situation, failure to think ahead to later streets, unnecessary second guessing, tilted play, failure to take full advantage of the materials you already have.
I would quit for awhile, at least until you've given yourself the chance to fully assimilate HoC by really
atudying, not just reading, for a "some what" comprehension.
Then I would nit it up after returning. Don't try to get "fancy" at tables where the rest of the field won't understand "fancy". That definitely means passing dubious hands up-front. While you're nitting it up, you will sit out a lot of pots. Use that time to get a read on the active players. There's no better time when you have no stake in the action. It'll pay dividends when you finally pick up a "go" hand, and you're in there with them.