It's around 6 handed at this point, folds around to CO who has me covered, I have $500 (so 250BB effective stacks), raises to $7, I 3-bet to $22, SB/BB fold back to him, he flats. I have A8

$45 Flop K66

Check, I bet $30, he calls.

$105 Turn K66J

Check, I bet $75, he calls.

$255 River K66J4

Check, I jam for $375~.

Not heaps of info on villain, but I know he is definitely at least decent (meaning he is at worst decent, could be very good etc), and is a thinking player and such. First time playing with him, not much history/dynamics but from the few hands that have happened so far I think he knows I'm capable of 3-betting light and probably sees me as at least somewhat competent/having a clue. I have 3-bet him maybe 3 times or so in the last 1.5-2 hours and he has folded 2/3 times, one time he 4b and I folded.

Pre obviously isn't the best hand to 3-bet, but also not the worst, has a blocker etc, not much else to say

Thoughts on all streets? I'm more than aware that I'm repping ridiculously thin BUT having said that I guess I'm (over?) relying on the fact that without more information, generally (good) players tend to give the benefit of the doubt, that is to say he's more likely to assume I have it rather than I'm capable of 3-barrel -> overbet bluffing. Also just generally don't give his range is pretty weak in my eyes, I mean I thought he folds virtually everything (such as Kx/pocket pairs etc). Not sure what he calls with OOP anyway, other than MAYBE stuff like AK since we're so deep and some suited broadways or whatever. Anyway other than that maybe a few combos of quads/JJ that turned it planning on c/jam river or something... Anyway I do realise that the overjam at the end might not fold out more than a smaller bet does, although stuff like maybe AK might fold to an overbet but not 3/4 of pot or something.

Sorry this was explained poorly, anyway thanks in advance.

Would like this better if you had the A as you cold rep AKhh. More history is warranted before trying this play. Since he has folded to a 3bet pre he is opening light but since he called his range should be narrow. This V is probably 4betting aces and kings every time but probably not AK.

May have 67s, 56s this deep would not be indefensible to call a 3bet with (clearly his IO are there ) other hands simply don't make sense except for 66 or JJ as you said, I can't imagine he's calling two streets and this board with QQ, TT-77.

Turned heart draws with K's are very possible though, any KJs, KQs, KTs, K9s.

Your river shove looks spewy and bluffy but could very well work against a nitty enough, monsters under the bed opponent but I would expect V to call with any 6 and any flush and probably AK so if you think he has something else that beats A8-high, then it's a good play but super high variance.

Tbh I think I MIGHT have Ah but don't remember, for the most part I don't think it's a huge difference because essentially all it means is we have a blocker for him not having it, in other words we "could" have AhXh as it is, unless he does. I agree he could possibly have 76s 65s and maybe A6s (doubtful). Broadway KXs are possible, especially with hearts like you said but I'm not too sure if villain necessarily would call AK any 6 any flush.

I mean what I said about me (over) relying on the fact that better players might be more likely to give credit than doubt in a spot like this without more information/history/dynamics essentially I assume means I'm more likely to be "repping" a (thin range) of boats or whatever rather than something like AA or a weak flush.

Not terrible, since you were flatted on 2 streets and rep a range that contains AhKh, KK, and JJ; your opponent is showing weakness and discretion when you are showing constant strength.

The only problem is that your villain may be unable to fold AA, unable to fold AK, or could be slowplaying a boat, himself, feeling invulnerable and not seeing a need to raise the flop or turn (flawed live logic FTW). Although this is unlikely given his check on the river; villains with monster who check/call 2 streets typically donk the river.

You defined your opponent's range as weakish and your own range is consistent with having a monster on this board with a high probability. Now, all you have to do is rely on your opponent to fold AK or AA if given the chance.

If you would have bet half the pot on flop and turn. I would have thought I was looking at a Viktor Blom HH. Looks perfect, besides the fact you look like you were betting for value. Then you shove I like it, reads or not he can't call with a full house and a back door flush draw.

Do you expect him to fold Ak here?

He usually has ak/kq/kj here. U rep nothing

He reps KK, AKhh, AA in a merged range, and JJ (although I would probably check behind the flop, personally).

He 3bet, has an exceptionally-strong range, and has narrowed his opponent to a hand that likely would prefer a cheap showdown. Whether or not he will call a shove depends upon his reads and his skill level.

For me the bet-sizing on the end doesn't work--its too much. I have found a small value-size bet to be a much more effective line than a shove. I would put $160 in on the river. Also, other than AA and maybe AK I also can't see what you are repping. As a villain, I would have a harder time putting you on KK. It woudn't shock me if V called as light as KQ.

And this is why I would not bluff here without an extensive history of the villain making good, tight folds.

It's not terrible. I think we rep AK+ well with our line, and it's pretty hard for us to be bluffing unless villain knows we 3-bet light and barrel. I'd expect to get folds from as strong as AK a lot of the time.

250BB bluffs are fine, but not is spots where you need to ask 2+2 if it was good.

I think it was okay, but I want to hear more thoughts ldo... I do think he would have folded AK.

I think it's pretty terrible, no offense intended.

The only hands you're credibly representing are KK, 66, JJ, perhaps 44. I highly doubt you'd play 44 this way.

It's possible you played some funny K6 AA/QQ/AK this way, but very unlikely.

You said he was a thinking player. Because of this reason, he's a lot likely to see a huge over-bet shove as fishy. He'd have to a very high level thinking player to think that you may want him to see it as fishy and actually want a call.

You're basically giving him a reason to call with hands he otherwise wouldn't, which would actually be a good play if you had a hand.

I think he's calling a lot of hands here on the river. People love to make hero calls. You'd need a read that he's a nit/conservative player, not a thinking player, to make this kind of play.

How are we representing AK or AA here? Who in their right minds would bet $30, $75, then shove against their typical opponent on that board with AA? You're only going to get called by hands that beat you.

My guess is he called with whatever he had. But even if he didn't, he'd need to fold a very high percentage of the time here for it to be profitable. And because it's a very suspicious play, I don't think he's doing that. You're way more likely to get a fold here if there was a flush draw on the flop that got there.

im confident he views it as polarized, and it could be a value or bluff bet. anyway v old hand lol but ty for response

I think you probably fold out AK/KJ with the overbet where he may have called for 3/4 pot. I think it is likely he would fold KQ either way. I'm neutral on it overall mainly because I think a 3/4 pot bet will still accomplish a lot. Also I think if the K on the flop is a heart I like the shove a lot better, because it is pretty much impossible for him to have back doored a flush.

Exactly. We're not trying to make him fold better than AA obviously. But everything less than AA is going to have a hell of a hard decision calling here, and probably fold. He's not going to know that we wouldn't shove AA here 'cause we only get called by better. It doesn't really matter that we're polarized because our whole line represents strength starting from preflop to the river.

well I think literal's point was that you wouldn't play AA or AK like this so a thinking player will know that your range is very narrow like KK, JJs and the rest of your range is bluffs, so he will prob look you up with AK, KQ, KJ and flushes...i could see it working if you are playing scared money, but against a thinking player its spew and against ppl with stationish tendencies (most ppl at 1/2) its spew...

It seems to me that if villain is really a thinking player, he's not going to call the turn out of position without already having a plan for the river. Therefore, once he calls the turn, I would expect him to call river a great deal of the time with whatever he called the turn with.

EDIT: To that end, you are bluffing $375 into $250 on the river. Your opponent has to fold more than 60% of the time for this to be profitable. Given the above I doubt this will hold.

SECOND EDIT: I just noticed that your 3bet was for less than 5% of the effective stacks. Villain can easily have been slowplaying trips here. Do you think your opponent can fold trips?

He can have trips here obviously and I don't expect to fold them (or at least definitely not more than 60% of the time when he has them) but he also has other things in his range which he can/will fold

This is fine IMO, given reads that he is a competent enough player to fold top pair. I don't think its unreasonable at all for us to have played AA/AK like this so I'd expect him to fold almost all Kx's except KJ. I would 3b larger PF though, something like 27 would be my sizing for my entire range.

fair enough, i'm guessing it's because we're deep.. so not too used to sizing i guess. also generally not a great hand to 3b for obv reasons

I fail to see any reason hero would play ak like this?? Its gotta take some extensive history/dynamics other than a cpl 3bets to pull a range merge 250 bigs deep?? I think he's reppin kk, jj and doodoo

OP, honestly if u do fit the online kid look irl im calling off kq here.

yeah that's why buddy

-i would take this line vs random stationfish with ak/aa and probably never as a bluff
-villain can reasonably expect me to take this line vs everyone including him with ak/aa and probably never as a bluff, and i doubt he'd read much further into it than that for fear of levelling himself

players like you are the reason for some of my biggest swings up... and down.

AA, AK never jams river for fear of a 6. If I'm villian I'm snapping off with 77-TT, and AJ (QQ would have played differently, possibly bet/folding turn). More often than not calling with a mid pair here will be successful at live 1/2. Obviously not always the right call, but def enough to make up for when hero has AK here.

3betting A8o is awful here. Serves no purpose other than to win the dead $. Once villian called the $22 you should maybe cbet flop and give up when he calls.