1/3 NLHE 9 handed

Table is loose passive with one or two NITs.

V - Station but I forgot that because I haven't played with him in awhile. He cannot fold TPGK. Pretend for a moment if you will that this is a vacuum. 500$. UTG.

H - Just started session up a bit and having fun. H has been listening to an upswing podcast on barreling theory and cbetting IP vs OOP and how boards like KJX favour the PFR. H just played a hand HU OOP vs a nit with KJs where flop came KJ8tt and nit called one street and so H is having fun applying his knowledge. This V is different though. Covers. UTG+1.

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V straddles UTG to 6, H sees A Q and opens 20, only V calls. HU IP.

Flop 40 - K J 8

Check, H bets 35, V calls

Turn 110 - 5

Check, H bets 85, V calls

River 280 - 4

Brief hestitation from V who then checks, H bets 360 AI for V...

Thoughts?

if your read is correct you either have the best hand on the river or you're torching $360.

hesitate and check often means a busted draw from a loose passive so i probably just check and expect to win.

So our default assumption for an unknown player at low stakes would be a station, so the fact you didn't remember is kinda irrelevant.

Given that I honestly I have no idea why we would run a massive river bluff on an unknown at these stakes.

Wow that's a big river bet. Why so big

If you are betting all aq with no spade on the end that's still 9 combos. You only have 11 value combos to bet. Maybe one more if you got funky with 76 spades. 45pc bluffs even at this bet size is too much. Plus what the previous replies said. You must have better bluffs like say T9 suited no spade that can go 3 streets. What is your opponents range given he should have folded some of it on flop and turn? What folds now that beats aq high. Realistically you have v few bluffs with no showdown value, and this board is good for your opponents range and you beat his draws. Maybe bet flop check turn and give up river.

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You are going to get called a lot on this river when all of the draws have missed. Betting big on flop and big on turn leaves Villain with a range of busted draws and TP+ hands. I would not count on Villain folding a hand like KT here, although betting will fold out JXss, 4Xss, and 5Xss. You beat a lot of missed draws in this spot so I think I would just check.

edit: I think this is an overbet or check spot on the turn as well (in theory at least).

PRE - seems fine.

FLOP - c-bet smaller, like 1/2 pot, if you're just always betting these two Broadway boards. $35 is too much.

TURN - if we c-bet smaller, I wouldn't hate a turn barrel for 2/3 pot on a brick. As played, when we bet big on flop and get called, it's time to pump the brakes and check back.

RIVER - I'd be checking back here a lot, both as played and how I think it should have been played.

Other than 76, all the draws missed. If we bet, V is going to be calling a lot with most or all his KX, and maybe some of his JX. But our ace-high is going to win often enough when we check back that we don't need to jam as a bluff.

Going 85%-90% pot, 75%-80% pot, 1.25x-1.3x pot over-bet jam actually looks bluffier than continuing the line of 1/2-2/3 pot, 2/3 pot, 2/3 pot.

But even at that, I'd think we'd be going smaller on the river, like 1/2 pot, to get value from V's 1P hands when we have KJ+ here. So V could be hero-calling a lot when we take this line. This isn't a good spot to run a huge three street bluff, IMHO.

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Result:

You've said he wont fold with top pair. If he's on a missed draw, he's folding to anything. I mean you beat A10 if it decides to call a bet. I see no sense in betting here.