1/2 Casino 300 effective, villain and hero have a lot of history and respect each other's game. Villain is tight sometimes weak.

OTTH

Hero KQ MP open 10, Villain calls from MP+1, SB calls, BB calls, pot 40

Flop: JT9
Hero cbet 15, villain raises to 40, SB fold, BB fold, hero calls.

Turn JT9J
xx

River JT9JQ
Hero x, villain bet 45, hero ai for 250.


Reason for not 4bet on the flop:
Based on the history with villain, villain's range has near-0 FD or combo draw, and are consisted of mostly strong hands that include 2P, sets, 89s, and QK, most of them would continue barreling with a clean turn.

Don’t like as a bluff. He never folding a full house here. Edit: just call

4 bet flop

I think he's trying to get him to fold a straight, not a full house... could be wrong though.

I'd def 3b flop OOP.

AP i think is read-based but I think is quite spewy. Some people would check back their full houses ott and you're not blocking any full houses, plus since you're deep this bluff has to work at a decently high % of the time to breakeven.

Cbetting 15 into 40 with the nuts on this texture is horrendous and then not 3-betting flop when facing a raise that consists of entirely two pair/sets/straights and basically zero bluffs according to our read is even more horrendous. You're rarely going to see a clean runout.

Why do people flop huge hands and all of a sudden start thinking its smart to play super sneaky?

Pot flop. Shove if you get reraised.
Turn. I mean you have a soul read on him so now its pretty much check fold since you know what he has here right? Im going to assume you meant he could have 87s and not 89s.

You flopped a dream situation, played a monster hand the weakest way possible on the most dangerous board you could think of, put V on a soul read of hands that mostly crush you on the turn. You then think its a good idea to bluff on a terrible runout against a guy who just river bet on this board who you describe as "tight and weak"?

Fold the river based on your reads.

Some cutting responses to the OP, but they are all correct unfortunately!

size up flop bet. worth asking, what did you choose the size that you chose?

if you know he never has FD or combo draws in his raising range (he sounds bad) and therefore has 2pair and sets only it makes it a re-raise (3bet) absolutely mandatory. Think reasons for not 3betting stated are the exact reasons for 3betting!

AP calling flop, the turn check is fine.

AP checking river for check/call would have been fine also. Turning hand into bluff however..

If you think that he has a big made hand on the flop, just get it in then since it sounds like he's calling. What's the point of waiting for the turn to get it in? On the river, you were getting good odds to just call, and your hand had showdown value. Based on your read, AJ should still be in his range, as is KJ and KQ which would give you a chop.

I think you really overthought this one.

I'd just call river. Terrible reaction to reading 15 on the flop, make it 35. I shove to the c/r. Get it all in with the best hand. It's 1/2. I wouldn't worry about being predictable.

Results:
Villain quickly folded 99 face-up.

You are very lucky that 1) V has the bottom full house, and 2) he was tight enough to fold it. A lot of 1-2 players would call with 99 here (even though they should fold).

Personally, I would just fold to his $45 river bet. A weak tight player has a full house here almost all of the time, and the times where he just has a K, you're chopping the pot. You would have to hope that V has AJ, that's super thin.

On the flop, you have to bet more.....bet the pot. You have the nuts, a super wet board, 3 opponents in a raised pot. You want to GII on the flop. If you bet $40, V raises to $100, now you can ship it and V is getting about 2-1 odds.
As played, you have to 3-bet to $150 or shove. Too many cards could cause you to lose the pot or kill your action....any diamond, pairing the board, K, Q, or 8.