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line check: top two on flop facing shove line check: top two on flop facing shove

09-15-2011 , 10:37 AM
2/3 nl 9-handed

V has ~$460 pre, Hero covers

UTG raises to 12
UTG+1 calls
V (MP) calls
CO Hero KhTh calls ??
BB calls

Flop (62) KcTs3c

checked to V who bets 60

Hero raises to 165 ??
folded to V who shoves
Hero (pot 392, 280 to call) ??

my initial reaction was that V had 33 for a set, or multi-draws. very difficult to read his bet sizing here. V is in his 40s. i'd only ever seen him make waaay undersized bets at 3-way or HU pots in the past, and a pot sized bet was very much out of character, but then I'd never seen him react to this particular 5-way situation b4. there were two absolutely drop dead gorgeous gen-Y girls that had just joined the table, so the testosterone may be kicking in also.

Hero's image is LAG, but certainly solid. I'd run up $700 profit in the first hour, sat fairly static and patient during the second hour, but was finding hands again in the third. he didn't like me having position, but tbh we hadn't locked horns in any major pot to this point except for an early hand where i'd raised pre over limpers with T9hh, found a T-high flop and c-bet flop, shoved turn to win against his missed flush draw.

happy to hear thoughts on any street.
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 11:48 AM
I think this almost always a call. I'd expect AK to be a big part of his range here. Do u have any other preflop reads on him? Does he 3bet AK? Slowplay big hands like AA?
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 12:13 PM
Can't say for certain, but would certainly expect a 3bet from kk/aa. He is certainly capable of flatting AK in position, but smaller bet on the flop is likely. I wasn't thinking AK when he bet 60.
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 01:23 PM
Call. AK and sdfd represent the majority of his range.
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09-15-2011 , 01:34 PM
*Grunch*

I think there're enough Axc's and Q9s plus bluffs in his range that you have to call here. Even against 33 you still have outs with 2 cards to come. I would fold pre, though.
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 02:33 PM
Do you really think that a flopped set would bet the full pot on the flop here? Usually 1/2 players get more "creative" than this and give their hand away. I think a combo draw is quite likely, something like AcJc or maybe AcTc for 2nd pair, top kicker + NFD. Either of those has ~12 outs against you (and you have 3 or 4 cards to hit the full house).

You need 41.7% equity to break even, I think you easily have at least that amount. I feel pretty good that you're approximately flipping here against his range, so I make the call. I'm not super excited about it though, but I think it's a call... and a good example of why it's important to have some semblence of BRM IMO.
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 05:18 PM
i think you played this hand well.

I call pre, I raise the flop, I'm not folding to a shove. I think I raise the flop a bit more ~180-200 but I think that this still is good.
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 06:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by francois8
Do you really think that a flopped set would bet the full pot on the flop here? Usually 1/2 players get more "creative" than this and give their hand away. I think a combo draw is quite likely, something like AcJc or maybe AcTc for 2nd pair, top kicker + NFD. Either of those has ~12 outs against you (and you have 3 or 4 cards to hit the full house).

You need 41.7% equity to break even, I think you easily have at least that amount. I feel pretty good that you're approximately flipping here against his range, so I make the call. I'm not super excited about it though, but I think it's a call... and a good example of why it's important to have some semblence of BRM IMO.
BRM is not an issue for me, although losing momentum (and nearly 50% of stack) when I'd been crushing it would have really sucked.

In any case, I'm rarely putting in 1/3 of effective stacks and folding. I sigh-called ...

Spoiler:
and what happened next was irrelevant to this thread, but bizarre:


Me: "do you have the set of 3s?"
V: shakes his head
Me: happily, ok
2c hits the turn
V: "were you A high flushing?"
Me: "nah, top two"
V: "im good then"
Me: "damn, oh well it was part of your range"
River bricks
V confidently turns over his hand...and shows Qc3h
Table is completely stunned. I flip over kt for the win.
V is genuinely stunned."I was sure I had qcjc"

The thing is, as weird as it sounds, I think he did believe that. He'd also been so conservative to this point that he was the last player on the table who I'd expect to spew chips here.

I'm just happy he didn't hit a club river, or this would be an epic BBV thread
line check: top two on flop facing shove Quote
09-15-2011 , 06:37 PM
I liked it the whole time
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09-15-2011 , 07:51 PM
call
Vs range includes to many draws (FD & STR8) and AK to consider a fold. Sets would be in his range but most 1/2 players (wrongly) make their move OTT with flopped sets.

call
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09-15-2011 , 08:11 PM
Nh, wp
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