Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
Every bet, on every street is too small. With 100BB stacks and AK, Plan A should be:
Get to flop with SPR <5, Flop top pair, tip the dealer. It doesn't always work out perfectly like that, but it should be good enough for an initial plan.
So $20 would have been a better pre-flop raise.
You didn't give us much of a read on the villain, but if he's an older ABC player then I wouldn't expect him to continue past the flop with out JT, a queen, or a good nine. Maybe KJ or KT. You beat some of those, and some of those beat you but would realistically find a fold by the river. So a 1/2 PSB is inadequate, both for value and as a semi-bluff. With our hand, and $34 in the pot on the flop, we need to bet $25+, not $17
The turns a great card for us. Now we beat pretty much everything he continues on the flop with, except sets and AQ. He'll raise with one of those hands at some point, and call down with everything else that we can beat. So bet/fold the turn and river. I'd go pretty close to pot size on every street.
I'm always on board with trying to setup HU SPRs < 5 with TP type hands, but with $300 stacks this is typically going to be difficult (unless the table is fond of calling $30 opens, which admittedly some tables are ok with).
I really disagree with raising to $20 and then planning the hand to stack off postflop with TP against what we're assuming is a tightish old guy. A raise to $20 setups a HU SPR of 7, there is no way we should be stacking postflop to this guy with that SPR, imo.
I think the 1/2 PSB on the flop is perfectly fine. We offer 3:1 for him to hit his OESD/etc., and we probably won't pay him off if he hits, so he's not getting the correct implied odds. If he has an underpair and was setmining, he'll *probably* fold to any reasonable bet (which a 1/2 PSB is). He's never folding a Q to any reasonable bet, and probably ditto-ish for 9x.
When we hit on the turn, what hands are calling down pot sized bets? KQ? Turn is a weird spot. When an old nittish guy calls the flop, alarm bells really should be going off. There's only a couple of OESDs, and other than that, if he calls a turn bet, he's typically crushing us. The turn does bring the flush draw, so if he's scared of the backdoor draw he'll typically tell us where we're at; but if he's not scared of it, we could simply be betting into his nuts on the next two streets. I would again bet small on this street (1/2 PSB) simply to charge the OESD (which he'll probably fold at this point), and fold to a raise.
River is a bad card as it completes the most obvious OESD. Other than the busted 87, there really shouldn't be any other hands we're ahead of at this point, and it's unlikely a bet is going to get paid off by a worse hand. I'd probably check/fold against a straight forward player here, unless he can loosely float the flop with an AJ sorta hand or is a calling station with Qx (where a small bet/fold is ok too).
ETA: To be honest, we need more information on Villain than "oldie", because I think we're all reading into that what we think that may or may not mean.
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