Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
GTO perspective...
We know that V's range (mostly) only contains bluff catchers. And hero has a mix of bluffs and value hands. So the river is easy to solve theoretically (GTO wise).
If villain folds more than 50% of the time to a PSB, you win. So he should call about 50% of the time to make you indifferent to bluffing. He's getting two to one on his money, so you need to be bluffing at least 1 out of 3 times to make it profitable for him to call. So you should have a bluff 33% of the time when you shove to make him indifferent to calling.
Suggestion would be to try not to look at this and just say, "oh great spot to bluff." Think about how often you actually have it here and how often you're bluffing, and try to make sure you're doing this less than 1 time for every 2 times you have it. If you exceed that, you're definitely bluffing too much and bluffing too much is generally going to be a bigger leak at LLSNL than not bluffing enough.
For that reason, to make sure you're not bluffing too much, I'd maybe just opt to take your line with the very bottom of your range... JQs and 78s (if you flat pre), maybe KJs. Or maybe only counterfeited pairs if you think you call flop with those.
This is kind of the discussion I am trying to have. I am wondering which hands are best to take this line with. Of course if I am doing this will all counterfeited pairs and all straight draws, I am bluffing far too much on the river. Also, is a shove the best sizing to use for my range? I would say yes, because I am fairly polarized. I do not really have any middling value bets which need to use a smaller sizing.
So, do counterfeited pairs make good flop calls? There is actually a pretty big equity difference between 88 and 22. I am not sure where to draw the line, though.
By the river, KQ really has no more showdown value than 77. A hand like QJ is pretty bad to check/call on the turn if it is in villain's range, IMO, so villain's range shouldn't contain any hands worse than A-high by the river. That means the better bluffs will be hands with positive blocking effects, so we need to figure out what villain's turn and river calling ranges look like.
Johnny, I would actually say exploitative play is strictly superior to GTO play, as GTO is a subset of exploitative play. I want to play pseudo-GTO here because I do not really know what all of villain's leaks are. I know he is c-betting far too much, and I can adjust to that by defending more than I need to against his c-bets, and moving some of my preflop value 4-bets into my calling range. Past the flop, though, I do not have a good idea and would like to try to play balanced from there.
When I get to the river in a spot like this with Tx and jam, I tend to worry that villain will be able to exploitatively fold his entire range to me. When I get to the river with a bluff, I tend to worry that villain doesn't think I'd jam for value here, but instead may use a smaller sizing, or thinks I am overbluffing like you do, so he'll look me up. I do not know what villain's strategy will be. I don't really like to treat poker as a guessing game. If I am close to balanced I do not have to worry about this, as I can just worry about ensuring my strategy as a whole is profitable. It is different against fish who are more predictable and have more apparent leaks who I can exploit pretty hard without worrying too much about being wrong.