Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
It doesn't scream as much weakness as it would in a single raised pot, but not really in a 3 way 3 bet pot. I would be happy getting to SD as is, he's not likely calling with anything we beat (only a chop pretty much).
Allow me to admit that yes, there is a chance he has us beat.
My suggestion to jam river acknowledges the possibility, but is based on hand-reading. Not wanting to be pedantic, perhaps it would help if we just looked at the hands we lose to, and consider what his range looks like at each decision point, to decide if any of the hands that beat us would appear to be in his range when the action gets to us on the river.
We lose to QQ (1 combo), AA/KK (12 combos), and any 8x (? combos). Now let's look at V's decisions in sequence...
1. He limps in from EP.
I'm immediately ruling out all unsuited 8X combos, and almost certainly QQ. I'm heavily discounting AA/KK going for a limp-rr.
2. There's a smallish (?) raise from HJ, and a 3.5x 3B from the BTN. V flat calls, with the HJ still to act.
This is definitely not AA/KK, almost certainly not QQ, and probably not many 8Xs combos. Maybe he has A8s-86s, if he's playing really loose-passive. But Q8s and 86s are probably pretty far down in that list, in terms of frequency. Most players will call with A8s and 98s/87s more than combos like Q8s and 86s.
This could also be PP's from 22-TT, maybe even JJ, and some other SC's that flop a flush draw, straight draw, or both.
3. He donks flop for a little less than half pot, around 40%.
That could easily be Q8s, or 86s, betting for value and protection on a two-tone board, but usually protection bets would be bigger. Occasionally maybe A8s would bet to "see where I'm at", but that bet would usually be smaller. Doubtful he's donking any other 8Xs combo for this size, like K8, T8, 98 or 78, so I'm ruling those out, but if you want, we can keep them in until the turn.
This could also be weak QX, or 99-JJ, possibly even 55/77 betting for value and protection, or a flush draw, straight draw, or combo-draw.
4. He barrels the turn for the same bet amount, now less than 20% pot, when he supposedly makes trip 8's, on a two-tone board with six potential straight draws.
A8, K8, T8, 98 and 87 would want to bet bigger for value, and to protect against the flush draw and straight draws, so I'm ruling all of them out. That leaves Q8/86s, but even those combos that are now boats would likely size up, at least some of the time, to build the pot, and in case a scare card shuts down the action on the river.
His sizing is more consistent with a weak 1P hand, or a draw still hoping to get there, or praying for folds.
5. He barrels the river for the same size yet again, less than 12% pot now, when he supposedly makes quads with the case 8, despite being called by both the HJ and hero on the BTN, on the previous two streets, after all the draws brick out.
Okay, maybe once in 50 or 100 instances, this is quads, but it would be extremely rare for V to get to the river with 8x, and play it this way. It doesn't matter how small he bets, no one is going to call with a busted straight draw, and very rarely will anyone call with a busted NFD. I'm guessing the HJ was considering making a play with AXhh.
But any pocket pair, Qx, and 6x are all boats on this board, and a lot of those hands may have a hard time folding, even to a big bet. If he has 8x, he'd have to be a total loon to play it this way.
V might have lost his mind with entitlement tilt after flopping bottom set with 66. Maybe he's just praying this insane triple-barrel bluff with a busted draw will fold out every better hand. If he's bluffing, his bluff only needs to get through 11% of the time for him to auto-profit, with this sizing.
Maybe he's got a Q, which he may or may not fold. But he could also have 77, 99, TT, and JJ that will pay us off if we jam, thinking we'd never play 8x this way ourselves, and not believing we have a Q we played this way.
Let's not forget that we could have some QQ here, making for the 2nd nuts. Even if V has Qx, he can't be sure we don't have the case 8, or QQ, or AA/KK, the way we played this. Even if V somehow got here with AA/KK, how the hell does he call a jam, the way this was played?
If we jam, and he calls with QX, so be it. If he somehow played AA/KK this way, and folds, or we get him off a chop, that's a huge win. If he folds a worse hand, and we take the pot down without having to show our hand, I'm good with that, too.
There's so little risk in jamming here, and so much potential reward. He should never have a hand that beats us in a 3B pot, the way this was played pre and post.