$1/2 - been playing about 30 mins, haven’t done or seen anything memorable.

EP 30’s BG just joined table from table change $500. Limps.
HJ 30’s BG $300 makes it $7. No real read - ABC I guess.
H BTN $300 sexy MAWG. AdQh goes $25. EP & HJ call.

Flop $72
Qd8h6h

EP $30, HJ call, H call. Standard I think?

Turn $162
Qd8h6h 8c
EP $30, HJ call, H call. Don’t love the lead and call on the 2nd card pairing but still can’t fold for price.

River $252
Qd8h6h 8c 8d
EP $30, HJ queues up a raise but folds after small tank.

H calls I guess? I don’t think EP would fold a Q to a shove.


Pretty standard or can be improved?

Kinda want to jack the turn for value. It's a small "same bet" which indicates medium strength hand or a draw using the "scare card," to set its price.

I’m raising the flop for value and don’t think it’s very close. He limped and cold-called a 3-bet and then donked into two guys on a neutral board—he’s clueless, just raise and make him pay, we’ll gladly get it in with TPTK.

—As played, yes, you just have to call down, raising either Turn or River is bad (raising the River would be horrendous—he’s never folding a Queen nor is he ever calling with worse.)

I'd raise flop at least some of the time. His bet isn't big enough to be better than TPTK often enough for me to worry about being beat. We want to charge his worse TP and draws to continue.

Turn seems like a mandatory raise.

River seems like an absolutely mandatory raise to rep the case 8 and push V off a chop with QX, or get value from non-believing 99-JJ. I'd probably jam, because what the f**k can he do about it? We're basically free-rolling by jamming the river.

id raise the turn. tbh i prob just jam turn for protection. many river cards suck for your hand and youre committed anyway if you raise. so might as well just jam.

flop is good to see what develops on the turn. when the turn paired the 8 and the donker bets weak and nobody raises, its time to turn on the gas.

i really dont like raising the flop here. donkbets can be either weak or strong and you really need to wait for the turn to pick up more info, which you received here when he bet the same amt. you can also get away cheap if the flush comes on the turn and someone bets big. the biggest mistake i see in 1/3 is people stacking themselves with one pair here vs two pair/sets by overvaluing their hand vs nebulous ranges.

So you know an 8 is not in his range? That he will believe an 8 is in our range given the betting so far? And what he can do is call with an 8 or a Q and fold everything else(Qx is very happy to see kickers no longer matter). Person you are giving a free roll to is V.

There's one 8 left. It would be hard for V to have it. V donked into us on a flop of Qd8h6h. This would most likely happen if V had a weak QX, or a heart draw, but could also be a PP betting for value and protection, or 66.

Since he kept betting, we can likely rule out heart draws. If V limped in with 8X, and donked into us on the flop, and kept barreling, and made quads, nice hand, good game.

Most likely, V flopped a set with 66, was betting a weak QX, or was betting 55-99 for value and protection.

For sure, he can call with an 8. It's harder to him to call with a Q or any other PP, but if he calls with a Q, so be it, we chop. If he calls with any other PP, we scoop.

This Villain will never fold a Queen and will never call with a worse hand, raising the River is LOLterrible.

This is $1-$2. He’s not folding a chop here. Here’s a recent one I played:

Limped pot I 4 ways check 72 in BB. Flop K77. I donk lead $10 and the first limper calls. Turn 7. I bet $100 into $28 and he calls. River whatever I bet another $100 and he calls again with K4 and says “shoot I thought we were chopping.”

There is 0 chance this guy will fold a Queen, and a >0 chance he has an 8. Raising is just so, so bad.

Is the EP guy UTG?

I think calling down is fine. When he bets 3 times he has to assume maybe one of you has AQ. This could also be a l/rr attempt who flatted a 3bet with KK who's afraid hero might have aces.

Did he come with 500 from a broken game? 25 pre to him could even be 68s or Q8s just tryna hit flops.

EP doesn't have KK. If he was going for a limp-3B, he'd have 4B pre. He's not aborting mission just because hero 3B, worried hero has AA. If he's scared money like that, he's not donking flop and barreling turn and river, or calling a jam. He'd just check-call the whole way.

If he doesn't ever fold a Q, that's fine. That's why it's a free-roll. We can't lose to a Q. But if he folds a Q any fraction of the time, we're free-rolling him off a chop, and our bet is auto-profiting.

It would be bizarre for V to limp in from EP with Q8 or 86, or any 8x combo, and flat call over a raise and a 3B, with the original raiser still in the hand behind him, and then take this line on the flop.

Like, why on earth would be donk-bet 2P into two opponents, one the original raiser, and the other the pre-flop 3B'er? This is a situation where he can expect one or the other of his opponents to bet this two-tone, fairly dynamic board at a high frequency. Why would he donk-bet middle pair, rather than just check-call?

I'd be more likely to believe he had 88 or 66 on the flop, and didn't want to risk the flop checking through. But he can't have 88, and we beat 66.

There's only one combo of 86ss available, and one combo of Q8ss. That's it, just two combos of 2P+ on the flop that we lose to, unless we think he's playing QQ as a limp-call pre. Even then, that's just one more combo.

Maybe he has one of the handful of 8Xss combos that might make sense here, if we want to give him credit for limp-calling pre and donk-betting flop with A8, T8, 98, or 87.

Meanwhile, he could have every combo of 99-JJ that might hero call, and a bunch of worse QX that might hero fold.

There's a decent chance V has 99-JJ or even 77/55 and hero-calls. He might even level himself into hero calling with ace-high. There's a decent chance he folds Qx. There's an extremely slim chance he snaps us off with a better hand.

This is such an amazing opportunity to auto-profit by jamming, it's hard to believe any thinking player wouldn't take advantage of it.

You seem to know this guy so well by giving him that much credit. It's 1/2, people do limp/call with 68s, and when he sees 3 people already in the hand, what's so horrible about an unknown, who just sat in a 1/2 game with 500 dollars calling 25 pre to try and stack aces? It's definitely possible, and saying a total unknown will "never" do this or "never" do that is just assuming he's a big winning pro when he's probably just a drooler gambler trying to hit flops.

I took into account that it's 1/2 and we don't have any reads.

My analysis still holds up, just based on doing the combo work and thinking about the low stakes live population reads.

The guy bet $30-$30-$30, even after hero called flop and turn. Wouldn't he want to size up at some point, if he has thick value?

There's just so much weird $h1t this guy would need to be doing for us to not want to jam here. He'd have to limp in from EP with some 8x combo (or AA/KK/QQ?), then call a 3B, then donk flop into two opponents with 2P or just middle pair, then barrel turn and river for the same exact size.

How is his line in any way consistent with a hand that's stronger than ours? His line screams weakness, or at the very least, uncertainty.

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It doesn't scream as much weakness as it would in a single raised pot, but not really in a 3 way 3 bet pot. I would be happy getting to SD as is, he's not likely calling with anything we beat (only a chop pretty much).

Allow me to admit that yes, there is a chance he has us beat.

My suggestion to jam river acknowledges the possibility, but is based on hand-reading. Not wanting to be pedantic, perhaps it would help if we just looked at the hands we lose to, and consider what his range looks like at each decision point, to decide if any of the hands that beat us would appear to be in his range when the action gets to us on the river.

We lose to QQ (1 combo), AA/KK (12 combos), and any 8x (? combos). Now let's look at V's decisions in sequence...

1. He limps in from EP.

I'm immediately ruling out all unsuited 8X combos, and almost certainly QQ. I'm heavily discounting AA/KK going for a limp-rr.

2. There's a smallish (?) raise from HJ, and a 3.5x 3B from the BTN. V flat calls, with the HJ still to act.

This is definitely not AA/KK, almost certainly not QQ, and probably not many 8Xs combos. Maybe he has A8s-86s, if he's playing really loose-passive. But Q8s and 86s are probably pretty far down in that list, in terms of frequency. Most players will call with A8s and 98s/87s more than combos like Q8s and 86s.

This could also be PP's from 22-TT, maybe even JJ, and some other SC's that flop a flush draw, straight draw, or both.

3. He donks flop for a little less than half pot, around 40%.

That could easily be Q8s, or 86s, betting for value and protection on a two-tone board, but usually protection bets would be bigger. Occasionally maybe A8s would bet to "see where I'm at", but that bet would usually be smaller. Doubtful he's donking any other 8Xs combo for this size, like K8, T8, 98 or 78, so I'm ruling those out, but if you want, we can keep them in until the turn.

This could also be weak QX, or 99-JJ, possibly even 55/77 betting for value and protection, or a flush draw, straight draw, or combo-draw.

4. He barrels the turn for the same bet amount, now less than 20% pot, when he supposedly makes trip 8's, on a two-tone board with six potential straight draws.

A8, K8, T8, 98 and 87 would want to bet bigger for value, and to protect against the flush draw and straight draws, so I'm ruling all of them out. That leaves Q8/86s, but even those combos that are now boats would likely size up, at least some of the time, to build the pot, and in case a scare card shuts down the action on the river.

His sizing is more consistent with a weak 1P hand, or a draw still hoping to get there, or praying for folds.

5. He barrels the river for the same size yet again, less than 12% pot now, when he supposedly makes quads with the case 8, despite being called by both the HJ and hero on the BTN, on the previous two streets, after all the draws brick out.

Okay, maybe once in 50 or 100 instances, this is quads, but it would be extremely rare for V to get to the river with 8x, and play it this way. It doesn't matter how small he bets, no one is going to call with a busted straight draw, and very rarely will anyone call with a busted NFD. I'm guessing the HJ was considering making a play with AXhh.

But any pocket pair, Qx, and 6x are all boats on this board, and a lot of those hands may have a hard time folding, even to a big bet. If he has 8x, he'd have to be a total loon to play it this way.

V might have lost his mind with entitlement tilt after flopping bottom set with 66. Maybe he's just praying this insane triple-barrel bluff with a busted draw will fold out every better hand. If he's bluffing, his bluff only needs to get through 11% of the time for him to auto-profit, with this sizing.

Maybe he's got a Q, which he may or may not fold. But he could also have 77, 99, TT, and JJ that will pay us off if we jam, thinking we'd never play 8x this way ourselves, and not believing we have a Q we played this way.

Let's not forget that we could have some QQ here, making for the 2nd nuts. Even if V has Qx, he can't be sure we don't have the case 8, or QQ, or AA/KK, the way we played this. Even if V somehow got here with AA/KK, how the hell does he call a jam, the way this was played?

If we jam, and he calls with QX, so be it. If he somehow played AA/KK this way, and folds, or we get him off a chop, that's a huge win. If he folds a worse hand, and we take the pot down without having to show our hand, I'm good with that, too.

There's so little risk in jamming here, and so much potential reward. He should never have a hand that beats us in a 3B pot, the way this was played pre and post.

Raise flop all day, Raise river AP

Results: H flats. EP proudly tables A6o and H scoops.

JFC.

How in the serious f**k does anyone argue we shouldn't be raising flop, turn and river?

Like I said (repeatedly) - his line screams weakness, most likely a weak 1P hand just trying to get to showdown.

We left about $500 on the table here. Should have raised flop, barreled turn, and bombed river.

How exactly did we "leave about $500 on the table here" ??

He's obviously folding A6 to any raise.

An UNKNOWN EP limper who then cold calls a 3bet in a multiway pot who donks out for 30 into 72 doesn't scream weakness because we simply don't know him. Players tend to play more ABC in these spots anyway and he could of easily slowed down once he filled or quadded up.

He's only calling raises with hands that beat us because as the 3bettor who's also unknown to him we still have all the over pairs in our range.

do people here understand that for a bet or raise to have value it has to either be called by a worse hand or protect your hand from a draw that would otherwise have equity to call? raising out A6 on the flop has neither going for it.

i dont care how bad the donker here is, nobody is calling a flop raise here with bottom pair. raising the flop wins you the minimum, and ensures you lose the max vs a better hand.

If the EP donker is playing A6 this way, we can't be sure he's folding to a smallish raise on flop.

I mean...you guys were convinced we should just flat the flop, or raise turn, and flat river, or whatever. Perhaps consider someone else's opinion.

The HJ also came along, calling both flop and turn, and apparently was considering at least calling, if not raising the river, likely as a bluff. For crying out loud, the EP donker limp-cold-called a 3B pre, and then donked flop, and went same-bet-same-bet on turn and river - with BOTTOM PAIR!!!

Clearly these two V's aren't splitting atoms when they're away from the table.

I'll admit it - even I was giving these guys too much credit. I thought there was a slight chance maybe the donker might have flopped bottom set!

Your assumptions are built around competent thinking V's. Nothing in the hand history here suggests V's are competent or thinking. They both appear to just be clicking buttons. I'm calling BS that a $30 donk into $72 against 2 opponents on a wet board is ever a monster. Neither is the other guy's flat call.

I mean...what the serious f**k is a $30-$30-$30 line here supposed to rep, if not a weak hand trying to get to a cheap showdown, or hoping to suck out? What is HJ repping when he flat calls the whole way? How are we losing anything by raising, much less the max??? If we raise and get 3B, it's a trivial fold, and we lose the minimum, since we're not getting taken to value town on the turn and river.

We could raise flop to $75, just 2.5x the $30 donk. With two hearts on board, very likely neither opponent is folding a pair, not even bottom pair top kicker, or any flush draws. There would be $207 in the pot, and they'd only have to call off another $45. Surely they'll both want to see at least one more card for such a fair price.

If we did that, and they both call, the pot would be ~$300 going to the turn. We could bet $100, and either or both would likely call again, getting 4:1 on a call and 5:1 on an over-call, when the board pairs, making them think we're even more FOS than we were on the previous street.

On the river, any pair is a boat. Zeebo theorem says no one folds a boat, to any size bet. If that's true, we should have been able to stack A6, and maybe the other guy too, if he was fool enough to play some other PP this way.

So, lemme see here...$150 on flop, $200 more on turn, another $350 on the river...nope, sorry, looks like we might have left $700 on the table. My bad.

But...hey, you guys want to fist-bump over winning $230, while letting two half-witted opponents try to suck out on the cheap, don't let me get between ya.

Agree hero didn't miss much value from vill's actual holding but there are other hands in his range we could've collected from.
There's the player in the middle too, they raise/called preflop and called flop and turn. They can easily have a 4-flush, gutter, weaker Q, etc. (and less likely to have an 8)

Only if V calls us.

Got to admit, I saw V showing A6o, and instantly thought, "No moniez left in live poker: everyone's too good."

I want to raise/fold the 1/5th pot turn, but shoving 242 doesn't make sense into 160-ish (does it?) And like we're folding if we pop it to 120?

When did we get so bold, raising top-top on Qx8h6h, after a 40% cbet? I mean, if that's what the solvers say, sure.

Edit: and when we're holding QhAx. What are people supposed to call us with? Besides stuff that's breaking us?

I actually thought I max valued it against both V’s. But obviously on different V holdings and/or different runouts that wouldn’t have been the case.

If we're being results-oriented, we could argue that you won the max because they might have folded to a raise on flop or turn, or we could argue the opposite, and say we lost value from draws that would have paid to chase and worse pairs that wouldn't have folded.

We don't know if they would have folded to a raise, or called a raise. But we do know that V1 limped in pre, and cold-called a 3B OOP, and then decided to take the betting lead with bottom pair and no draw when OOP in a multi-way pot. Knowing that, and assuming he would have folded to a raise is being results-ignorant.

We should try to look at each decision in isolation. Raising pre was pretty standard. The debate starts on the flop.

People can and will argue over how to respond to donk leads. As the PFR with TPTK on a wet board, facing a donk from a deep-stacked player who limped from EP and then cold-called a 3B, and a flat call from the other V, I just want to start piling the money in here. These guys are terrible, and I want them to feel pot committed as soon as possible.

The small donk lead is usually marginal showdown value or a draw. The big donk lead or check-raise is nutted. This was an almost half-pot donk, which just seems like a weak player unsure what to do with his hand, which is usually weak.

The same-bet size on the next street is almost always weakness. Even more so when it happens again.

If we had a reason to think V might be doing something fancy, to try to induce us to blast off, maybe caution is in order, but we have to filter each of his actions through our population reads.

The population tends to raise pre with big hands, not limp. If they limp EP with a big hand, it's usually with the intent to re-raise, not flat call, even when there's already been a raise and a 3B. The population tends to bet / raise flop fairly aggressively when they have thick value on a wet board, or when they put hero on a big over-pair, or both. The population tends to tip their hand strength on turn or river by betting bigger, to make up for lost value by slow-playing or under-sized bets on earlier streets.

Yes, maybe if we raised flop, V1 folds A6, and V2 folds whatever, but what I assume was a draw. But maybe not. We don't know what either V has. All we know is that we have TPTK on a wet board, where either V could have a draw, or middle pair, or a worse top pair, etc. We should also factor in some "random nonsense", like either guy deciding to come along with 65 or 76, because backdoor straight draws, or A6, because I could make 2P on an ace, or whatever.

But if we don't raise, we're losing value by not charging our opponents more to realize their equity, even at the risk they'll fold. If they fold, we need to realize that most of their folding range is going to be the weakest garbage that probably isn't going to be putting more money in on the turn. Anything that wants to keep putting money in on the turn is likely to call a small flop raise, which is why we should bump it up.

The 2nd 8 on the turn reduces the combos that are beating us even further. We should want to get stacks in by the river, right? How are we going to do that if we let our opponents dictate the pot size, and they're happy to keep it small until they make their monster, or get to a cheap showdown? We should raise turn, to deny equity and build a pot we're likely to win. Again, if they both fold, so be it. They probably folded trash that wasn't going to stack off on a brick river.

Not raising the river because we think we can never get called by worse is just torching EV. Would we say that if we had the case 8? Of course not. We'd bet, even knowing it's unlikely we'll get called. But even so, why not give our opponents the chance to give us their money?

Our hand is the 3rd nuts on the river, in a spot where our opponents are extremely unlikely to show up with the 2nd nuts (QQ, really?), and as played, it would be very strange if either of them had the pure nuts (same bet, with quads, really?). Why not go for value?