1/2. ~100 bb eff. No reads on villain, only been at the table for 20 minutes and he was gone.

Villain comes back to the table and posts the blind in the hj. Mid 30's white guy.

1 limp up front, villain posts, I raise AQo from CO to 15. Villain calls.

Flop A89r. Pot $35. Villain checks.

I'm not one for slowplaying but villain posted and didn't raise so he cant have much. I don't see a whole lot of value in betting.

I check back.

Turn Ar.

Villain bets 15, I raise to 45. My read is villain seems surprised. He thinks for about 20 sec and calls.

River 10. Pot $125.

Villain bets 50.



So, we're never folding. Against a random 1/2 villain, Do we call or raise and why?

Call river.

First, I'd bet flop. Not sure what you're hoping will develop when you just check behind. You don't necessarily want to see a Q, J, T, 9, 8, 7, 6, or 5 on the turn. Those cards can improve villain to better hands (and he would have given you value on the flop), kill your action against various worse hands, or significantly improve villain's equity.

Betting the flop gets you value from various hands. If he has total air, what can you do.

If you had, say, A4, I'd check the flop a lot because I don't want to build a huge pot.

I'm betting AQ for value.

The river is really close. You got it - never folding.

The problem is that it's really hard for him to have the case A.

With only 1 A left, there are 4 combos each of A2-A7, AJ = 7*4 = 28 combos.

There are gonna more combos of hands that beat you in his calling range.

All considered, I think you have to call. I want to raise for value, but I just don't think there are enough possible worse combos of Ax to make a raise +EV.

BTW, if you do raise, it really has to be a shove.

Grunch

I'd bet the flop and go from there. How much extra value do you get for waiting until the turn? I don't see it.

What's your plan if villain bets into you on a wet turn and bombs the river and you are left with just a pair of aces. That's essentially what you are opening yourself to by checking flop. On that board, you aren't winning much more money from middle pairs if turn isn't ace, but you expose yourself to losing a big pot. Stop fancying things up and just value bet when value is there. As played, call or if you do raise, shove but shoving isn't getting anything better to fold or many worse to call

I'm betting this flop for value 100% of the time against an unknown V.

A/p Calling the river. Don't see that open trips is a great place to value raise. there are enough Ax boats in his range that makes this a poor spot to raise

Occasionally checking back made hands on very dry boards is ok.
Esp if we have reads to back it up based on player tendencies.

And I would like it much more on a A94r/Q83r type board. But A98r has a lot more pair+bd straight draw, oesd, gutter ball combs we can get value from. Let alone weak Aces.

As a result I'm betting this flop close to 100%.

You haven't explained anything that would allow anyone to comment.

To start off with: What made you decide that the Villain had to have "much" on the turn and could not have "much" on the flop?

I'd bet the flop, JT/Ax/9x are calling. V only has $140 left otr? I shove. It looks like a scared bet otr, you guys put in $45 each ott and now he bets $50, I think it's a bigger-than-normal blocking bet. If V had you beat I think he bets bigger otr.

Grunch.

Bet the flop, we get value from draws and worse A's.

Turn is fine.

River, AT gets there as does QJ. We can't raise/fold given the effective stacks so without reads I flat here.

cbet the flop you are getting called with any Ax, even worse pairs and draws

my read is he is could also be hollywooding or giving off a reverse tell. The lead on the river is begging you to raise so he can gii. We look smoked but its going to be hard not to call.

PF: OK

F: Heads up. Pot is $35. SPR is 5.3. I think there is much value to betting. He certainly could have Ax hands. He certainly could have 67, JT or QJ; we should be charging these draws. He certainly could have K9 and would call a bet here. I see all sorts of reason to bet. We should bet. If he doesn't have anything (say he's got 55), then he's not going to put money in the pot anyway. I'd bet.

T: Pot is $35. V donks $15. Well, we showed weakness so the donk here is not surprising. If he's got a 9, he likely thinks it's good. Unless he's got an Ace, you probably aren't getting anymore money out of him. As played on the flop, I'd probably just call this turn bet and try to squeeze a bit more value on the river.

R: Pot is $125. We've got $140 left. V donks the river for 40%P after we raised the turn. Man, that's a tough one. Well, we know he's either got a full house or trip aces. Very, very unlikely he's got QJ here. 67 is possible. This line is really making me think we don't have the best hand. We know he's not folding if we raise. This bet almost says "Please call with your trip aces, becasue I'm afraid if I checked you were going to check back". We lose to AK, AT, A9, A8. We beat AJ, A6, A7, A5, A4, A3, A2. My gut says just call.

Edit: After reading the other posts, I think raising the turn is the right thing to do. We need to charge those draws and get some value.

I guess I've had enough replies to give the results here.

For starters, checking back this flop is not my standard play. I do think betting this flop is much better than checking back. I think because he posted blind, and only checked his option, made me view his range as very wide and weak.

But I don't think the check back is terrible. I think checking back does a few positive things for us. He won't put us on an ace so:

1) He overvalues his mid pairs, thinking its the best hand

2) If hes aggro, he senses weakness and tries to make a play at the pot.



On the turn, I like my raise, but I think I should make it a little bigger, because I think it looks FOS and he doesnt think I have trips.


On the river, I just flatted after thinking for a little bit. My first instinct was to raise to get value from Ax, 10x. But then I just didn't think there were enough Ax in his range given its the case ace. And not sure how many 10x he folds to make it +EV.

so I just made the call and was shown QJ and he scooped the pot.


I hate his river size. I think he needs to shove in to me or go for the c/r after I raise the turn. And obv his call on the turn is bad, but I believe my flop check back completely induced his turn line. After the hand he said he didn't think I had an ace so he thought his Q or J would be good if he hit.