Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Like night and day Like night and day

07-28-2011 , 12:39 AM
i def agree with flatting the flop and raising the turn is definitely seeming like the way to go. your line really doesnt look like anything here after flatting the flop. and like most said i relaly doubt that V2 has a monster here it just doesnt make sense to not use his image to his advantage. i also think that most old people that are tight and straight forward bet bigger with a hand that is stronger than yours. definitely looks like some sort of 1 pair hand and he doesnt really know what to do at this point so he says to himself, "ok i guess ill bet again i have top pair" and just throws chips in the middle
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sknight
I think that if I call turn I keep a ton of draws in my range so v2 should be less likely to go crazy on a scare card unless he has it. I was very sure v1 was checking any river and the ideal scenario would go checked to me on a blank and I can value. The other option is to raise turn and see if I can play for stax with v1 who may shrug call out of frustration. This also charges v2 who most likely has some type of draw, god knows which one.
I support a raise here on the turn, and I don´t like a call. V1´s bet looks very weak (don´t know if he´s the kind of guy to bet small with a fh--and there´s really only three combos). His 150$ bet looks weak --V2´s calling twice also looks weak , especially his flop call on such a wet board. The paired 9 reduces set combos and as someone else said, it moves us ahead of a hand like KT. Wouldn´t V2 be raising at some point to build the pot if he had a monster?

Looks like someone has a draw and another has a K. Time to raise. The pot is about 825. What about a raise to 950? I´m honestly not sure about the right size though.

By the way, I like the flop call. Don´t like it when a straightforward guy leads for 3/4 pot into caller and raiser. But his weak turn bet changes things for me. Could be wrong though.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 04:22 PM
Call flop and draw to a brick which u hit. Bet sizing tells ftw on the turn. +1 to raising the turn for value after both show weakness. V1 pretty much almost always has KQ/KJ (maybe AK) here and V2 probably has the QT/JT end of things and can hardly ever have a monster, especially with his propensity to pounce on weakness -- despite his action image he does have pretty good poker instincts. Raise to $700.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 04:35 PM
Ok, so the consensus is to raise turn, which is what I did. At the time I did it more as a reaction to the tiny lead and flat call by v2 than any other reason. The only question left is how much to raise? I made it 450. I thought this would keep hands that were drawing to 2 outs in and maybe induce spew with a weakish draw. Maybe I should have made it more so I don't have any problems with the river if v2 flats?
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 06:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sknight
Ok, so the consensus is to raise turn, which is what I did. At the time I did it more as a reaction to the tiny lead and flat call by v2 than any other reason. The only question left is how much to raise? I made it 450. I thought this would keep hands that were drawing to 2 outs in and maybe induce spew with a weakish draw. Maybe I should have made it more so I don't have any problems with the river if v2 flats?
I tossed out 500 because it's just shy of actually committing you but larger than a straight 3x, so it might look like you're hoping for a fold by attacking the weakly sized turn bet. I thought it might be more likely to induce V2 to assume he has FE if he comes back over the top.

If V2 flats and is turns a non-showdown winner into a bluff as often as you describe you're kind of forced to call the river but depending on his actual river bluff frequency would help that decision.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sknight
Ok, so the consensus is to raise turn, which is what I did. At the time I did it more as a reaction to the tiny lead and flat call by v2 than any other reason. The only question left is how much to raise? I made it 450. I thought this would keep hands that were drawing to 2 outs in and maybe induce spew with a weakish draw. Maybe I should have made it more so I don't have any problems with the river if v2 flats?
I´m not sure about 450. I think it is too small. The pot was 525 at the beginning of the turn. V1 bet only 150 and V2 called, so pot is 825. If you raise to 450, the pot grows to 1275, and it is only 300 to call. V1 is getting over 4 to 1 to call, and V2 would be getting over 5 to 1, and one of them very likely has a draw.

Of course if V1 just ships, it´s ok then given his likely range.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 07:21 PM
Before I decide how much to bet on the turn I would obv decide whether I was committed to the hand or not. I am assuming, from the fact that you raised the turn, that you had decided you were committed (correct me if I'm wrong).

If so, I would shove the turn. I am not trying to avoid "playing pokers" here--this is very player specific (and therefore may not have much generalizability)--it is my belief (based on history) that this particular Villain tends to believe that big overbets are a sign of weakness. He is, imo, much more likely to "hero" call you down (like with one decent pair) if you shove turn than with any other action you might make. If he folds, he is likely folding draws that have reasonable equity against you anyway, so I don't think there is that much to lose.

I don't care much about V1 here--he is almost certainly weak--he can call or fold (probably will) to your shove. I guess I'd rather win a medium sized pot now (if V2 folds), than lose a big one on the river.

Going back to your original post-- My read above is based on behavior I've observed when V2. was NOT drinking. However, it sounds like you believe that he is even more likely to call lightly with EtOH on board. Even more reason, therefore, to consider a "weak" shove (in Villains eyes). IME he'll probably give a little speech just before he calls (i.e. "so you really have a monster, huh? I don't think so.") and then, if he's beat, he'll verbally chastise himself (i.e. "and they say I'm supposed to be good at poker!").

Edit: My bad on previous post when I called your pf raise of 50 a "min raise". I was mistakenly thinking that this was 10-20. Agree that 50 is standard here.

Last edited by Finister18; 07-28-2011 at 07:43 PM.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 10:03 PM
your raise size is fine imo.

you should play to maximize the 80% times or so that you end up winning the hand. Not to shut out the 20% completely by raising a size that makes v1 or 2 less likely to call with hands you are crushing.
Like night and day Quote
07-28-2011 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aggo
your raise size is fine imo.

you should play to maximize the 80% times or so that you end up winning the hand. Not to shut out the 20% completely by raising a size that makes v1 or 2 less likely to call with hands you are crushing.
The raise is fine vs the player who has a pair and is getting crushed, but what about the other player that very likely has a draw. I´m not saying something like pushing all-in, which would be stupid in my opinion, but I am saying that the raise should be bigger because of the draw.

If it was just the V1, I would say the raise would be fine, but that is not the case. I think the raise gives odds that are too good to the draw that is so likely to be out there (5 to 1).
Like night and day Quote

      
m