Quote:
Originally Posted by fold4once
IMO the flush card on the river is rarely relevant in this situation. Would you say "straightforward" V's semi-bluff 2 streets in a limped pot only to suck bet river?
WRT recent discussion about 10% air comprising most ranges, this might sway it to be a marginal break-even situation. You're winning ~25% of the time vs trips+ with the minimum bluffing frequency we've discussed and you're getting 3.3:1 on your call.
If you can't answer some of the questions about V tendencies (can V 3x barrel with air? Will he semi-bluff 2 streets with FD, etc) then there may be some extra EV in looking him up but I'd expect to be beat almost always if "straightforward" means to you what it does to me.
Can V 3barrel with air? Yes, but it is rare.
Will he semi-bluff with a FD? Yes.
Even though he has those two things in his bag o' tricks, they are still not often enough to become a hero against him (and I can't hero anyways because the flush came in).
The only things I would expect him to bet the river with is Ax, flushes, and IF he has air he might pull a 'only way I can win this hand is if I bluff' bet.
A thing to consider, I just moved to this table, so what I know of him is hands we have had in the past. I don't know if he is tilting tonight or anything else. I believe my reads on him are pretty good. Maybe Garick will confirm.