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Let go of 2 pair or gamble in 1/2 NL

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12-30-2012 , 04:23 PM

sneg

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 7

Hero UTG with $700 with A

Villain sat down 4 hands ago. Asian middle aged player with about $150

Hero Makes it $12 to go and get 4 callers

Flop ($63) A

- Hero bets $55 Villain calls.
Turn ($173) 9

- Hero Checks, Villain bets All-in for $83 Hero???

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12-30-2012 , 05:28 PM

i4betfold

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 441

Call, Villain doesn't ALWAYS have a flush and will likely bet a lot of his range because he senses weakness.

Also we have to pay $83 to win $256. If we still have 10% Equity when he DOES have a flush, then we only need to call and be good 1/10 times.

Last edited by i4betfold; 12-30-2012 at 05:35 PM.

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12-30-2012 , 05:30 PM

HeroInBlack

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 3,200

I think there are enough times he has AQ, AJ, A7, A9, 97, etc. that you should call here. You are putting in less than 1/4 of the final pot.

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12-30-2012 , 05:48 PM

2OutsNoProb

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 15,991

Based on the fact that you already have committed $67 to this pot, and are getting 3.1 to 1 to call another $83, we're not folding. Get it in and know that he drew incorrectly the times he does show up with the flush, scoop the pot when he has A9, AxQh, AxJh, etc.

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12-30-2012 , 05:57 PM

Jibber

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 486

I'd fold if I took this line. But I'd probably just jam myself.

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12-30-2012 , 06:03 PM

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Never folding for these odds.

He's often scared of the third heart like you and is betting to protect his pair against a 4-flush.

vvv That too

Last edited by DK Barrel; 12-30-2012 at 06:13 PM.

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12-30-2012 , 06:11 PM

CallMeVernon

COTM Crusher

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 4,205

If you are heads-up on the turn, since Villain is too short-stacked for you to fold, you probably should just shove yourself--if you got outdrawn, you're getting it in anyway, but by shoving you make sure you still get value if he has a worse hand.

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12-30-2012 , 06:30 PM

locknopair

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 466

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2OutsNoProb

+1, and i would just put him all-in on the turn instead of checking. if he has it, he has it.

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12-30-2012 , 06:31 PM

i4betfold

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 441

Also side note OP.

ALWAYS consider the math and ranges; Don't be results oriented.

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12-30-2012 , 06:36 PM

#10

fogodchao

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 3,429

getttitttinnnnnn

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12-30-2012 , 09:14 PM

#11

sneg

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 7

I am happy I made the right decision and called him. He shows 8

... go figure, but I got lucky on getting another K on the river.

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12-30-2012 , 09:23 PM

#12

madlondoner

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 5,515

shove turn cause ur gonna call anyway and the turn getting checked back and a heart river would be hideous.

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12-30-2012 , 11:23 PM

#13

daveMASS

adept

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 784

Yeah I think you need to call here. Your so priced in, and there are so many hands that are scared of the heart too.

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12-31-2012 , 01:06 AM

#14

i4betfold

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 441

Quote:

Originally Posted by sosickman

thats why you have to shove first

sometimes youll get the lower flushes to fold to you when you dont have a single heart its all about reading your opponent

Lol, because villain says to himself: "I am going to flat a FD on the flop, hit my flush THEN just outright fold?" Highly doubt this LOL

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12-31-2012 , 01:46 AM

#15

SublimePoker

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 21

Quote:

Originally Posted by sneg

Hero UTG with $700 with A

Villain sat down 4 hands ago. Asian middle aged player with about $150

Hero Makes it $12 to go and get 4 callers

Flop ($63) A

- Hero bets $55 Villain calls.
Turn ($173) 9

- Hero Checks, Villain bets All-in for $83 Hero???

Tough not to out level self in this spot at 1/2.

The flat on the flop followed by the turn shove is pretty polarizing. Yes there are several hands he could be bluffing/drawing with but if the V is any kind of thinking player he has to know that you're not folding bc of the math. Unless you have a strong read on him, the hands play themselves after he flats the flop.

Grudgingly I'd call his shove thinking we'd have to catch to scoop. It always feels good to be on the right side of variance.

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12-31-2012 , 01:53 AM

#16

shadowdodger

adept

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 985

Why would we shove first? What is he ever folding that is better? Villains that play like this will never (read: one time in 1000) fold their flush here. But will jam more of their range than call I feel.
Aren't we only succeeding in getting worse to fold if we jam first?

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12-31-2012 , 02:02 AM

#17

bball fan 82

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 351

Quote:

Originally Posted by shadowdodger

We should still jam turn because there's no guarantee that V is betting his entire range OTT. If he has a hand like Ax-10

, we would rather charge him to draw to his flush than let a free card pass. Since we have no info on the V, theres a slim chance that he could be a big fish and called flop with a gutshot like Q

-J

. In this case, it would be horrendous to check the turn since he'll probably only call a river bet when he sucks out. (Obviously the 2nd scenario is less likely, but there are definitely quite a few LLS players who will gamble for $50 with a GS)

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