Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I always cringe when I read someone has a huge post flop edge on the field. Most players wildly over rate their post flop skill.
The problem with calling is that with 3 players likely calling, someone is going to have a hand on the flop. If you assume that players have a hand about 1/3 of the time, the odds everyone missed is 30%. Pretty hard to out play someone when they have a hand and won't fold.
Therefore, I like a 4 bet under the circumstances. We'll either get it HU where can show our awesome post flop skills, everyone folds, or we fold to AA when it 5 bets.
As for the turn, either someone is taking a stab at the pot or has the flush. A tight fish that is underrolled for a game is rarely betting this. My guess is that it is -EV to call or raise this because he's going to have a flush a majority of the time. If you won, congrats.
I agree I prefer 4 betting. But it is close. In game, making fairly quick decision, I decide to flat. Mainly because yes I felt I had post flop edge.
Now by me saying I had an edge. Doesn't mean I am going to try and out play them. Just felt I would make fewer mistakes than they are. FWIW, alot of folks would have edge on these 3 villains.
Being a 3 bet pot 4 ways. Doesn't leave much room to outplay anyone. But it does magnify mistakes.
Just so happened the hand played out where my truly only easy decision is on flop. I would be folding every non K or Q turn.
Turn was bet by aggro villain. Not scared money villain. If scared money bets, then I am never raising. Contemplate folding.