1/3 NLHE 9 handed.

Table is overnight on a Sunday, game is loose passive but some better recs are showing up so H is planning to take his winnings and buzz soon.

V - Late 20s white guy, friendly, loses at the game but is working on his leaks. Generally plays too many hands for too many streets and keeps calling chasing. Will raise chunky when he hits and will call all ins with non-nut draws even MW. Not a turbo station though, VPIPs 30-35% and can read the board. Shown down hands like KJo and QTo for a 15$ open. 600$ CO.

H - SB covers, has been winning.

---

One limp to V who opens to 15, folds to H who raises to 50 with K Q, limper folds, V calls, HU OOP.

Flop 100 - J J 3

H bets 55, V calls

Turn 210 - 9

Hero? V has just under 500 back.

I’d like a barrel a lot more if you’d bet smaller on this flop, a downbet to $20 or so. Then he could have some Ace-high floats that have to fold to a turn bet.

When you bet over half-pot on that flop and he calls, it narrows his range almost exclusively to pocket pairs or traps (trips/boats). And it’s hard to see why he would fold (eg) 77s on that Turn card. (If the turn was an Ace, then I would like a bet, because then he’s much likelier to fold his pocket pairs.)

One thing is you still do have a decent amount of equity against (eg) 77. Any K, Q, T or 9 gives you the winner, and you can still almost certainly bluff a river Ace. I don’t hate a tiny block bet here on the Turn—the amount you might but with QQ yourself—to “set your own price” and avoid letting him blow you off the hand by betting big himself.

I think I prefer that to a check. I don’t like a big bet here, at all.

OOP, I just fold this. I might call depending, but OOP I probably just let it go. How often does he raise pre? What do you think he called the 3bet with? I'd be a little concerned at this point. Is he doing this with TT or worse? Maybe. Is he doing it w/ AK/AQ? Doubtful. Will he fold QQ/KK on turn? Doubtful.

I might just check behind and get a feel for his action. If you bet, make it $75 or so. You will figure out pretty quickly what's going on -- or close enough.

Good point, I didn't think about that.

Check.

Very high frequency bet at about half pot. You have to think about your range. What are you bluffing if spades hit on the river? This is a good hand to stick it in on a rivered spade. If spades miss river, probably a give up.

Preflop I would go bigger, at least 60.

Result:

I would not be surprised if that is what he has. In 3b pots where 3 bettor is OOP and flop goes bet/call, turn goes check, this line is INSANELY overstabbed.

I think the best play here is definitely to barrel for half pot and jam if spades come in. If he did have the hand he said he had, you have 12 outs including KQT or 9. He might fold turn when you bet, and you have 9 spades besides the 7s that will likely allow you to get through with a jam on the river. Think of how many hands like underpairs villain can have on the turn when he puts you on ace king.

Agree that we need to be smaller on flop (1/3).
We pick up a gutter on the turn, we can represent spades on the river, we have 6 outs to top pair. I'm going 2/3 pot and evaluating river.

I think half pot flop, half pot turn, and jam if we decide to go for it in the river are fine sizes for bluff or value.

i dont think theres a point to betting 1/3 pot on the flop unless you follow through with a big bet on almost all turns. all you do is get floated. so imo you either have to check the flop, bet the flop big, or bet flop small and follow through on the turn big.