fyp.

It may be buried somewhere ITT, but I do think he is a decent player for the most part.

Like the idea we need to chr to prevent him from turning a draw is laughable, also going on stove and lol clicking top 25% is so bad because most people don't value K7s but do value 65s while K7s is top 25% iirc whereas 65 is not

Like your logic is right Richard but the hand we have is bad to use it for

Sigh...I'll just leave with these parting thoughts.

There are no cards that would come on the turn, against 25.2% opening range, that would call a bet with less than ~25% equity, in addition, board texture will add higher bluff equity for V1. Combining both: > 25% equity + bluff equity = bad spot for hero OOP.

Then type out what you think villain's range is.

God, you seriously add nothing to these discussions beyond bunch of:

"oh this is what I think..."

"lol"

22+, 86s+, 65s+, KJ+, A9s+

Anyone care to run the EV on c/r flop vs. c/c assuming V doesn't bet turn without a better hand?

3betting here as APD describes the range isn't terrible by any stretch, as (in my experience) we can often fold out V1 and iso V2. I am basing that on maybe a wider range than APD intended with his description.

After reading the discussion, I am more intrigued by the c/r discussion than I thought I would be.

Like the line. Would consider c/c river and c/r river. If he's a decent player I think it's conceivable to think he would value bet but not be able to call hands like aj, at.

And you lose money in your game, how?

Fwiw what is your fear of getting called by a range you have >50% vs with 1 card to come????

This has to be a level...if it is wp sir wp

Fear of making less money?

Like the bigger question is what is his continuing range and that we are oop with the other guy in the pot. If I 3b I'd size it smallish so they both call.

That being said calling here is so profitable and 3b can make the hand harder to play and we are 100xbb so I'd prefer to just nit call.

Also hero has said he's had trouble with villain before and stuff like that plays head games with you so again I'd prefer a flat.

subbing so I can read this novel next dark bathroom break....

I do appreciate the comments thus far, but please take the shenanigans else where... And not even for my sake or the sake of the thread. Any more soap opera ish ITT will cause bip! to take an unusually long bathroom break at work and he might get fired.

C/r for the sole purpose of protecting your hand?

If only better hands are continuing, then c/c (even if he isn't db wide) is better.
What am I missing?

I like the turn check, but I see the argument for donking. I'm probably ck/folding river.

Would you like me to simplify it more?

if we are c/r this otf, it is because we think he cbets decently wide and continues with a lot of that range (including some air) vs a c/r. i really doubt we will be able to profitably valuebet KQ on later streets after c/r, so we have to be able to bluff catch and get to showdown cheaply a fair amount on later streets if we want this to be okay.

without reads that these things would occur, i would probably just c/c flop and turn with KQ and also probably c/c rivers depending on runout and sizing. his range contains enough strong hands (KQ+) and is polar relative to our hand (worse hands have little equity, better have lots) so that i dont think c/r will play well on later streets as said before. also KQ is actually like the nut bluffcatcher here, since we block QQ/KK/AQ which makes up a bunch of his value range

the issue of c/r vs c/c lead is a relatively minor one here, because the flop is pretty dry/static, and range equity is not going to change much from street to street, as it might on more connected boards, so "giving a free turn card" is not a driving issue in how we choose our flop strategy

on the hand as played: river is close between a c/c and c/f. KQ is probably the best hand you can have here, so if hes good enough to know that then probably just call so you dont have to fold 100%; alternatively check some stronger hands on the turn and river.

Think about this. If villain cbet bluffs 100% of flops with x%+y% of his range which includes x% bluffs and y% value, and bluffs zero % ott, how much equity does his air have to have against us to make us want to c/r flop.

If he does continue with a smaller % of the x% bluffs, but we can't continue (with 87 for example), how does that factor in to us "winning the hand outright" otf?

I used to think betting/raising "to protect" or to "make a hand easier to play" was horrid, but I think that's really semantics. When we c/r with 87 on this flop we play optimally vs. villains range OOP.

I know I am a Raptor fanboy and ya'll are probably sick of it but in a recent vid I watched he talks about this in extensive detail.

He c/r 33 on a low flop, villain folds. Raptor comments "yea he has air there alot and I'm not going to bluffcatch him with next to nothing and 2 outs to improve, people say stuff all the time like was I bluffing or value betting. I don't know, I don't get caught up in all that bs. I was winning the hand"

I hate the turn check. You've basically given him the old barrell with air so he can check the turn back & when he gets a big back door draw that gets paid off near 100% when he hits the river.

We need to bet the turn. For the reason I posted above

Ps. When he c bets flop with AJ and then we check turn (10) and the river is a K We are lost in the hand and deffo paying him off hard.

When he C bets AK and we check turn (J) river is (10) were probably still paying him off.

PPs when he C bets JJ TT and we check turn (2) river is (T) (J) we pay him off.

Fwiw yes im scared of him hitting his 2 outters and runner gutterballs because we have just given him 2 chances to get there free

Ava, I think that's a good explanation. It's basically like 87 is being turned into a bluff/folding out more hands that have equity to improve (that we can't profitably bluff catch against).... I agree with your logic. I think it also emphasizes why a c/r with KQ doesn't make any sense.

It's mainly a function of his barreling frequency and how your hand playa versus his range. Think of it like bluffing with the top of your calling range because he has to much dangling equity in the pot.

Top of calling range isn't the right way to put it, I'd say middle to bottom. I've watched that raptor video and I think it's fundamentally better to do it with a non pp hand (like 87) because we have way more equity versus a likely calling range.

Would agree that this hand is a lot different than the 33/87 example.