This is from a 2/5 home game. I've been playing very loose, but running well and getting hit with the deck. V is a young white guy, he hasn't gotten involved too much but is capable of making a move occasionally (I've seen some bluffs from him).

Effective stack (me): $1800

I raise to $20 from UTG+2 with KsQs (my standard).

2 callers in between (loose passives). V raises to $100 from BB. Hero?

His range is TT+/AQ+ for value and potentially a few bluffs (I've seen him 3-bet with A2s earlier). I call. Other players fold.

Flop ($240): 6d6c6s

V checks, I check it back.

Turn ($240): 8s

V checks and I decide to bet $150. I don't really expect many pairs to fold, but it'd be nice to get his A-high hands to fold and my flush draw is helpful against them. Is this a mistake?

He calls.

River ($540): Qc

V checks, should I be checking here or go for value against TT/JJ? There's of course the possibility that V has been trapping the whole time with AA/KK/QQ.

I bet $250 and he raises to $700. Hero?

Wait. What? Everyone says, "I have a tight image." You just said, "I've been playing very loose." I believe you more.

I think betting turn is preferable to checking. You want A4, A5,etc. to fold.

I'd be calling otr. The value range that beats you is soooo tiny. AA, KK, QQ, 88, 6x. He could be bluffing AK, AJ, AT, value-betting AQ or A8. (You say he can bluff. Some people don't bet so often with A-broadway hands, thinking they have sdv; if that's him, I'd err on the side of folding maybe.)

I'm not particularly concerned about 88 or 6x. Pretty much just AA/KK/QQ, but it also feels like exactly how he would play those.

I would honestly bet flop after checked to us. There are just as many pairs as non paired hands in his value range, so there's more unpaired hands if he has bluffs here, all of which I would expect him to fold on the flop.

As played, I like betting the turn, but I would only go $100, as it accomplishes the same exact thing as $150, but risks less.

River is a mandatory value bet. I would be absolutely shocked to see AA, KK, or QQ here, and would make serious note of it, as checking the flop and turn, then calling the turn and checking the river makes zero sense for either of those hands. I like the sizing on the river, and calling the river, and expecting to at least chop with AQ.

As played, I like betting the turn, but I would only go $100, as it accomplishes the same exact thing as $150, but risks less. [/QUOTE]

I'd expect him to call with AQ+ OTF. Good point about the turn bet though.

Why do you think it's that surprising? He essentially flopped the nuts with those hands and could easily decide to give me rope to hang myself with.

Fold pre and you dont have to face tough decisions like this. KQs is not a hand that is an auto call against a tight V but isnt as terrible in position. You have to realize that having extra callers isn't really what you want here especially because you lose position and KQs looks good but actually doesn't play amazingly well multiway. I would rather call with JTs or lower sc's/or PP's since we aren't going to be faced with massive RIO and a hand intertwined with ours that probably has us dominated.

The flop and turn check would make me cautious. The turn call sends my alarms off. You hit your card on the river and I dont blame you for betting and Id say V played his overpair perfectly here. If hes bluffing its an amazing bluff, if hes blowing you off a chop its a great bet as well. Id fold the river.

Because you have so many pairs and he's missing out on value. Checking once doesn't make sense, and checking again makes even less sense. He's never getting action from your non pair hands, and has to build a pot with his boats. It would be super out of the ordinary to check flop and turn with a hand that beats us on this river.

I'm not OOP, he raised from BB.

Agreed that KQs is often a fold pre but in this case his 3-betting range is wide enough that I thought it's worth taking a flop.

How much value is he missing out on though? It's not like I'm going to pay off a b/b/b line with 99 in a 3-bet pot.

If he checks, my pairs will probably take over the betting for him *and* he gives me a chance to bluff with my unpaired hands. Probably the river is the only spot I'd be surprised he checked AA/KK.

By your very own words his 3 betting range here is not wide at all. I edited my original post to reflect my mistake.

A 666 board is as dry of a board that you can possibly get. There are plenty of people who would check twice with KK/AA. As I said, the lack of betting on 2 streets worries me. AQ/AK would have probably bet the flop or turn.

If we had 99 we should be looking to check it down unless a 9 hits, given no worse hands pay us off

So you're saying people are much more likely to check bone dry boards than wet boards?

His value range isn't terribly wide, but he does 3-bet bluff and I could see him working in a hand like KQ/AJ as well (given my constant opens).

I agree it's a marginal spot, but in position I felt like it's worth taking a flop.

If I am against a TAG that occasionally bluffs I am always going to put him on some kind of a hand regardless. The 2% chance he is bluffing here is irrelevant and thats the strength of playing TAG. You can show a bluff or 2 and make people massively paranoid when you go back to nut peddling. I should know, this is my game.

I don't think AK will call this turn bet, we are repping 99-JJ here most of the times.

Him calling turn my turn bet, even if I hit my Ace or Queen, I'm checking back.

Are most 2/5 players folding an ace on a trips board? I’m only asking because most lower stake players are calling it down IME

smaller turn to force his Ahighs to make calling mistakes vs your range
river bets should be larger, but not Qx imo
this could fit into a smaller bet/fold range where you're betting Qx and bluffs with worse blockers, like AJs/Ats

$150 is too big if choosing to bet turn. I'd 100% check this combo, though. Actually, not even sure I have a betting range after checking flop. Every combo that is reasonable to bet on the turn can be bet on the flop for the same reasons.

If I'm not betting Qx, then is my river value range only 88/6x? That's an extremely narrow range.

I was talking about betting river big 3/4p+
you can bet on the smaller side with Qx 25-50%pot

this would be vs a competent opp but then again a competent opp isn't checking flop pretty much ever so yeah I'd say good river bet and I'd fold ap as a default, esp since you narrowed his range with the large turn bet

Calling $450 to win $1,940? I think V has enough worse value / chops / bluffs to make this a call. Kind of a shrug call I guess.