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KK vs strange run out KK vs strange run out

02-27-2013 , 11:24 AM
Playing 1/2 max buy in $300

I've been at table for 2 hours at this point. Table should be a money printing station, with a total station, idiot mini-whale (has bought in multiple times but buys in short), a drunk fish, a fit/fold type who plays too many hands and a couple of random fish. Only 3 competent players (counting hero) and one is a mediocre TAP. Unfortunately Hero has had terrible luck, I've chopped 4 hands with top two, folded JJ twice when multiple over cards hit on flop, lost to the fit fold when he boated over my straight on the river and generally just not able to make any progress.

V1 $324 TAP, making money slowly but not aggressive enough with TP+ against the multiple stations at table.
V2 $200 Total station, will limp 75% of hands and hates to give up on any draw or pair on flop. Only bets TPTK+ and only raises near nuts. Has only raised one hand preflop in 2 hours. Has more then once said "I'm beat but I have to see it" and called. For the most part he was right about being beat, but some of the fish keep trying to bluff him so he wins some. In for at least $500.
V3 $750 Asian good player - normally LAG but has cut way back at this super loose table.
V4 $300 Bad fish - Knows some poker but is generally bad. Like to slow play his big hands. Doubled up a couple of hands ago by slow playing AA the whole way to river. On second $200 buy in.
Hero $280 playing tight and getting a bit frustrated at inability to make money.

UTG+1 V1 Limps - likely medium suited ace or medium-small pair, probably some better suited connectors in range also.
MP V2 limps - just short of ATC
MP V3 limps - Anything with potential to flop well but not strong enough to raise station. Ace rag suited, small pairs, suited connectors and probably some one gappers also
CO V4 limps - wide after all those limps but not playing stupid bad hands
BTN Hero KhKc - Raise to $15
V1 calls
V4 calls

Preflop is standard, more then $15 scares off everybody but the station unless they have a big hand. Unfortunately the station folded and V1 didn't. A lot of V1's range for the limp/call is medium pairs, but small pairs, suited aces and suited connectors are possible particularly with V2 after him. V4 is harder to range but he would throw away most suited connectors and weak AX hands here.

Pot is $52
Flop is Th5c5s
V1 bets $25
V4 calls
Hero calls

I expect a lot of Tx in both villains range here and I don't want to blow them off. V4 could have a 5 and would slow play if he did.

Pot is $157
Turn is Td

V1 checks
V2 checks
V3 checks

I considered a bet/fold but figured I'm behind more then ahead. Both villains would slow play a Tx hand in a situation where any bet folds out all but the strongest hands.

Pot is $157
River is Tc

V1 checks
V2 checks
Hero?
KK vs strange run out Quote
02-27-2013 , 11:29 AM
I bet 75, hoping to get looked up by a smaller pocket pair or someone who thinks they're chopping. Think if someone had the other 10 they'd have made a move by now, so probably calling a reraise but would think about b/f.
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02-27-2013 , 11:30 AM
Pop flop man.

Turn is a check if flatted on flop pop.

River is straight value. Fearing quads is mubs. As played I think small value is best. $50 will entice other pp to call as well as any 5.
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02-27-2013 , 11:36 AM
I mean at this point only a T, 55 and AA beat you. It's prob a safe bet situation given player reads, and I'm not folding very often, a T is not likely given all the checks and come on it's 4-of-a-kind and unless I'm against some serious aggression i'm prob paying off the T if they have it. Other than that bet for value against these droolers who prob are playing the board. Also raising flop is prob a good idea given the villains, you said they were stations who will prob call a raise with there 10 and if one has a 5 you're hearing from him otf. Raise flop, AP bet river
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02-27-2013 , 12:02 PM
Bet. Based on the action, the odds of either V having the case ten (or 55 or AA) is virtually nil.

I also think you can bet on the higher side since Vs will have a high likelihood of thinking that you are just trying to steal the pot. After all, your line (raise/call/check) doesn't represent much at this point. Try $125; it looks like a bluffy amount.
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02-27-2013 , 01:55 PM
Pretty much agree with everybody here. On turn I thought I was behind, but on river when nobody bet I figure to be ahead. V1 would check turn a lot here but he is competent enough to not check river after checking turn. V4 could check quads here, he was the sort who slow played anything stronger then top pair but with only one person to act after him he would mostly try to get some value.

I'm more interested in bet sizing and what people think gets a call here. This sort of situation where I'm pretty sure I have the best hand on the river but I'm not sure what the best bet to get paid on are one of my problems.
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02-27-2013 , 02:02 PM
I'm in favor of smallish as stated previously. $50.

To elaborate:

1) Fish don't think in terms of pot size, they think in terms of last bet. Last bet was $25. Anything over $50 here is huge.

2) you are only getting called by pocket pairs and possibly any 5. These hands will easily find folds if you bet any decent amount. Turn was checked and river was checked to further show the weakness of our villains.

3) The whole "bet alot they think you're bluffing/chopping" is 2+2 logic and has no merit at an actual 1/2 table.
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02-27-2013 , 02:07 PM
If you have not already done so, see the overbetting COTM and various discussions around here along the lines of "it is more profitable to make a larger bet that will get called X percent of the time than a smaller bet that will get called Y percent of the time" (where B1*X > B2*Y). Also, we constantly see fish in the Donkalicious Hands thread calling way more with way less than we would ever imagine.

Which is why I am advocating a big bet. And you know what? With only $240 behind, maybe just shoving here makes sense. It only has to work 21 percent as often as a $50 bet to be more profitable.
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02-27-2013 , 02:12 PM
On the river, is this a bet/call or bet/fold?
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02-27-2013 , 02:20 PM
While I am a big fan of the Overbet and understand the concept completely, this is not the run out or opponents for it. A shove is not getting called by worse here. The turn and river were both checked through.
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02-27-2013 , 02:47 PM
The "you" intended was QuadJ, not avaritia - no offense intended to either.

Obviously I disagree with avaritia about what the Vs will call with and how much they will call. I think 66-QQ is calling large bets because there is a substantial chance that they are good here. I also think that both fish and solid players could easily level themselves into calling to play the board.

Yes, we are more likely to get two folds with a larger bet. But when we bet $50 and get called by a V who slaps down 88 like its the nuts or a V who says "I know you are just trying to scare me off the full house on the board", don't we wonder how much money we have left behind in his stack?
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02-27-2013 , 05:04 PM
Bet $85-90. It has to be less than $100 to make it seem like a callable bet. Anything less than $80 is just leaving money on the table.
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02-27-2013 , 05:07 PM
i dont mind a flop call but if you do raise it has to be with the intention of getting it in, if you raise/fold lol that would be horrific

otherwise played fine

bet 70% pot on the river and rake in the chips
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02-27-2013 , 07:00 PM
I like all of the first 3 streets for mostly reasons OP mentions.

After the last two streets check thru to us, I'm fairly convinced that no one has the ten. Which leaves 55/AA as the only hands which are beating us. I think I'd actually shove the river here. It's a bit of an overbet, but no one likes folding here when they think they are chopping in a biggish pot, plus any pocket pair > 55 is definitely going to call thinking they are good after our passive flop/turn play. Really looks like we're buying the pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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02-27-2013 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I like all of the first 3 streets for mostly reasons OP mentions.

After the last two streets check thru to us, I'm fairly convinced that no one has the ten. Which leaves 55/AA as the only hands which are beating us. I think I'd actually shove the river here. It's a bit of an overbet, but no one likes folding here when they think they are chopping in a biggish pot, plus any pocket pair > 55 is definitely going to call thinking they are good after our passive flop/turn play. Really looks like we're buying the pot.

GcluelessNLnoobG
Yes! Trust this man! He has played 1000 hours of 1/3! He is wise.

(Awesome semi-well, gg.)
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02-27-2013 , 08:20 PM
I do agree. "If" your read is you have the best hand here and nobody is trapping with a ten, thn I definitel agree with goblegeek. This seems like a very good spot to "overbet bluff" People love to put you on high cards like ak or something. I think a "nonbeliever" will look you up alot with 55 or a smaller pocket pair than yours will rarely fold given the action. If your betting a large bet is definetly the way to go. The only caveat I have to this is that if I'm playing with aggressive maniacs/lags I may throw out a very small bet meant to induce a spazz. These villians don't qualify though they are far to passive/weak tight in this hand.
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02-28-2013 , 04:23 AM
I think both a big bet and a small bet have merits. Whatever you figure is right at the time.
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02-28-2013 , 04:51 AM
perfect river to do b/f.
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