Quote:
Originally Posted by quesuerte
If villain knows us as well as is claimed you should have a good idea whether AQ is in his range.
There are definitely villains you can fold here against. 60BB is not THAT short and villain has 2 players behind him. There are villains who never have <1 pair here. You have to figure out which they are and the forum can't really help.
Against an unknown I never fold but you seem to know that so it is your ability to observe/range/read villain well that is the issue, not a check up of your line.
I think the problem imo is that there are just too many players who would ship here with KQ and ESPECIALLY AQ here for essentially a remaining PSB.
I mean, its not like we're talking about a $200 pot and a $400 shove.
Pot is roughly $85 on flop and then Hero bets out $65 so pot is $150 when it gets to Villain. V at this point has $280 behind. If V has AQ what would he do? If he calls, pot is now $215 with him having exactly $215 behind....
There are multiple ways V could play AQ in this spot so I'm not debating that. What I am saying is that out of the villain bell curve easily 90% of villains have zero problems raising/stacking off in this spot with AQ or even KQ. So for us to not feel good about our KK we need to:
#1 Be able to soul read V for ONLY being part of that 10% who would not stack off with TPTK for under 60bb on a great flop for KQ/AQ
#2 Realize that not only does he not stack off with TPTK but he's also willling to call a preflop raise with 33 or 55.
#3 He would call pre with QQ
Now, #1 and #2 are kinda contradictory. You gotta figure that if someone is nitty enough to NOT stack off with AQ here he'd also be too nitty to call a preflop raise to setmine with 33 or 55 when 60bb deep right? So finding someone who fits both molds probably cuts the player population of that 10% in half...
So, add everything up, and I just don't see how KK can fold here. The only way we can fold KK in this spot and feel good about it is if we are up against the nittiest Mcnitty nit in the universe who is calling our preflop raise w QQ. This same nit would NEVER call with 33 or 55 and conversely would 3bet AA pre some ridiculous amount because they would be afraid of getting "cracked". Thus, this super nit would only raise with the stone cold nuts.
And I do know of one nit player like this, I play with her all the time and you could comfortably fold anything to her raise because she ONLY raises with the stone cold nuts, and I mean that literally.
So I just don't see how for 60bb we can every fold KK here. 99.8% of the time, we should be comfortable calling.