Originally Posted by Bellezza
Yeah, my bad. I analyzed this hand, and please correct me if I'm wrong.
To bet close to 100% of our range on this board, we need to have approximately 55% equity (our range vs opponent's ranges).
If we discount the other two callers and play HU against only the MP caller, then:
Hero UTG open (77+, AJs+, KQ, AQo) — 56.54% eq
MP caller (JJ-88, AQs-A5s, KQs, QJs, T9s-76s, AQo, KQo) — 43.46% eq
So, against just one opponent, we can definitely bet here.
Next, let's add one more caller to the pot:
Hero UTG open (77+, AJs+, KQ, AQo) — 41.01% equity
MP caller (JJ-88, AQs-A5s, KQs, QJs, T9s-76s, AQo, KQo) — 33.28% eq
CO caller (JJ-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s-76s, AQo, KQo) — 25.7% eq
Now, we need to be more selective with our hands and start checking more often. KK is a clear candidate for checking here.
Finally, let's add a button caller:
Hero UTG open (77+, AJs+, KQ, AQo) — 33.68% eq
MP caller (JJ-88, AQs-A5s, KQs, QJs, T9s-76s, AQo, KQo) — 25.5% eq
CO caller (JJ-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s-76s, AQo, KQo) — 19.35% eq
Button caller (JJ-22, AJs-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s-54s, AJ+, KJ+, QJ) — 21.47% eq
At this point, betting is definitely a "huge punt." With only 33% equity against these opponent ranges, we need to check a large portion of our range. KK is a clear check here.