I've been playing a standard LAG game (3-5 at Lucky Chances), taking down medium-ish pots before showdown (usually on flop or turn). There were a couple of weak spots to my right (one in particular), who I was isolating an average of 2-3 times each round, and winning by cbetting - since most others at the table didn't seem to care unless they had a hand! Villain has been playing pretty snug. A standard winning Tight (aggressive/passive) player. He has been paying attention to the game, and knows that I've been playing LAGy, and making cbets with air quite often. But I haven't gone too out of line ever. For instance, after moving to this table, I never played any pot that was >250 bucks.

600 effective.

I open to 20 from UTG with KK. Villain in UTG+1 makes it 65, everyone fold. I make it 165. Villain tanks for a bit, says "I think I have you" and makes it 400 total. Hero?

While I was thinking, he said: "I'm pretty sure I have you now, but you might sickout on me".

I've very rarely seen live players 5-bet lighter than KK; occasionally I have seen QQ, and AK. So here's my evaluation:

I've to either fold or play for stacks. So basically, I need to put in 435 more to win around 770, so I need ~36% equity. He could have:

6 combos of AA - I have 20% equity
8 combos of AK - I have ~70% equity
6 combos of QQ - I have ~80% equity
1 combo of KK - 50% equity

The most interesting questions here are, what fraction of the time do you think he 5bets AK/QQ?

I guessed that even if villain is 5betting AK, QQ ~30% of the time, I am priced in to call. But I may be way off, and if he is 5betting them <=15% of the time, I must fold KK here even though only 120bb deep. (Obviously I didn't do all this math at the table; but I'd like to do this rigorously now, so I'm prepared for the future.)

in these situations against standard TAGs, it seems they have AA alot of the time, still i'm never putting in $165 of my $600 and then folding KK preflop, unless youre sure of your reads. is he good enough to be isoing you because he knows youre opening wide? if so ship it.

also, people at these stakes will do crazy stuff in these spots with AQ AK, QQ, JJ

you should know what youre going to do if he 5bets prior to 4betting imo.

as played ship it , if he has AA tell him merry christmas, and then spike king on river

Pretty tough spot. Your image is that of a complete maniac and does increase the odds of an observant TAG widening his range in general. But this situation is quite different from him 3betting light when you have iso'd a fish, for example. You are utg, he doesn't care and has put in 2/3 of his stack. I believe if he thought you were fos he would have just 5b shoved with AK. On top of that, you get the speech. I think this is AA at least 80% of the time.

For me it really depends on what level his table talk is at.
A lot of people will hollywood w/ AA tanking and then making a speech.

IME this is usually a sign of strength. Either way I'm pretty sure this player does this w/ AK almost never.

I would lean towards folding here, but it's really close.

ur hand just screams AA/KK (UTG 4b a 3b from UTG+1 is so strong), so it's really hard to believe he is doing this w/ AK or even QQ. Seems like a vast majority of the time his hand is AA. if there was ever a time to muck KK now is the time.

Thanks all, for the comments! I agree that a fold here seems the right play... I don't think a player is 5betting QQ/JJ/AK often enough for me to ship.

You probably didn't see me whispering during the hand since you were thinking about what to do, but my neighbors and I were discussing whether or not we could fold KK in your spot. My neighbors said no. I said yes (not trying to brag) b.c. your opponent is so freakin' tight that I would be >98% sure he had AA.

Also, I was down at the other end of the table yakking away, but I didn't pick up on you iso'ing, raising light, etc, so I'm not sure that he did either, and so wasn't "playing back at you".

Don't 4bet fold kk at this stack depth. Sorry he had AA

This is the right answer. You should be questioning why you are 4betting in this situation. If the answer is to get stacks in, a call will leave the pot at 130 with 535 stacks. That's close enough to a 4:1 SPR to guarantee you'll get stacks from JJ and QQ if the flop comes low. Therefore, raising is unnecessary. All it does is allow the villain to fold hands you crush while paying off AA. By 4bet/folding, you turned the second best starting poker hand into a bluff.

this is a trivial shove.

Flat call the 3-bet. As played, fold. I don't like the 4-bet but people that will tell you to shove here are nuts.

You're either making an awful 4bet or an awful fold. Its really the latter obv