1/3 NLHE 9 handed

V - Young white guy I've seen in the room that I forgot is a nit. I have very few hours with him. He's been folding at our table for two hours now and has opened only a few hands, he opened CO over an LPs limp once and I 3B Btn and he folded showing 96s so he can get creative. He's called a few times and 3B once but shown very little. UTG 500$.

H - Has been Lagging it up and shown hands like K7s and AJo for 3bets pre. Not sure if this V would notice. Covers UTG1.

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V opens 15, H raises to 55 with KK, folds to V who goes to 180, H tank calls.


Flop 360 - Q J 9

V pauses for 30 seconds then jams 320, Hero?

Even if you've been 3 betting light, tight player is not somehow gonna 4 bet you very light, but it might be slightly lighter than the typical 1/2, which is AA/KK, i.e. it could be as wide as jj+, AKo.

If you think he thinks you're FoS a 5 bet is worth considering, and hope he's gonna make crying call with QQ, JJ, AK.

Now we're here on the flop, you're crushed, especially since you block AK. Feels an easy fold.

I think you either have to fold or jam pre at this stack depth, committing 36% of your stack with KK doesnt make much sense.

Also 2 hours of live poker is like 60 hands lol the guy could just be cardead and you saw him raise 96s over a limp so he’s not a complete nit.

As played, this is a pretty trivial call in case your KK is no good you got 6 outs at least which is already 25% equity and you’re probably good alot of the times already.

An interesting topic. When should we consider a jam or fold preflop? Is it when the call costs us 30% of our stack or more?

I agree with jam or fold pre to the 4bet. As played, everything beats us except for AK and the other KK, so probably a fold, but it sucks and you shouldn't be here.

There is going to be less than a pot-size bet left on the flop. The only reason to call pre vs. jam is if we are planning to call/jam any non-A flop, so if that was your plan, call.

If he's nitty but creative he probably has noticed you lagging it up. So in this dynamic, I think I would just go with it preflop and shove. With my particular image against another well known nit, I would more lean to making my 5th ever preflop fold with KK, but I just don't think you can do that with your image. FWIW, at action tables this deep I would often initially flat in this spot and hope to get in the 'ol flat/jam (but again, with your image probably better 3betting).

Ug, literally the 2nd worse flop we coulda seen (only trumped by QJT). I mean, we probably shouldn't fold overpairs in SPR 1 spots, but I would consider it here (ETA: Although good point above regarding our equity even if behind, and we're not always behind, so probably forced to call).

GcluelessNLnoobG

My threshold is 1/3 of my stack so 33.3% is the max amount i would commit preflop instead of jamming.

Also we can only fold flop if V is only 4betting AA, KK, QQ , if we add AK, its a call already. 8 combos of AK, 6 combos of AA and 3 combos of QQ. Thats assuming he doesnt random spazz because he’s been cardead for 2 hours.

FWIW, just because we would consider ourselves committed if we continue preflop (due to percentages of stacks getting in) doesn't mean we are in a shove fold spot. AA is a perfect example of this. KK ain't too far off, so flatting isn't horrible as a committing tarp (especially if we think he can fold worse to a shove).

Gnothatin',justsayin'G

Yes, you can't fold the flop, because you have too much equity against AA/QQ with the gutshot.

I think push or fold preflop is best. Given the pot odds he is getting, you don't mind that much if he folds to a push.

Opening 69s from LP isn't being creative. If someone called him and he c/r'd them otf with 9 high, that's being creative.

"unknown nit" is an oxy moron. If he's unknown, how can he be a nit? nits don't open 69.

If he's seen you 3bet things so wide he might be playing back at you, so I don't see how we can fold otf. He cold have AK, AQs or TT in his range if that's the case.

with this stack depth I would 5 bet jam pre.

It's a good point people have made about equity so I'm going to correct myself; we are likely behind but there probably is just enough equity to call if we factor in some percentage of AK and random spew.

On the flop

With the additional gutshot equity we have roughly 30% equity against hands like QQ, KK, AA, and maybe 3 AK combos. If you assume he has ALL AK hands, then it goes up to 45%.

Here are the equity breakdowns for different scenarios:

Worst case: QQ+ = 25% equity

Medium: QQ+ and a few AK = 30% equity

Best: QQ+, AK = 45% equity


On a QJx board the situation is different:

Worst case: QQ+ = 14.5% equity

Medium: QQ+ and a few AK = 23.6% equity

Best: 40% equity

We need 32%.

JJ+ only, we're at 25% Add AK, we're at 40%. JJ+, AKs only, we're around 31%

QQ+ only, we're at 26%.

Just depends on how we're interpreting V's pause here. If we see it as, "Crap, now what?", call. If we're seeing it as, "Should I 1/2 pot with top set? Nah, shove." We fold. You were there, we aren't.

Probably calling.

yeah, I'm not usually one for reads/tells, but in very close situations like this, I think you can use it to sway one way or another. If we don't have a read, I probably lean call.

Seems like call or fold are about the same EV wise here. Fold is probably correct. Not sure I could at the table.

I agree w jam pre. This guy can just be playing back at you bc youre 3betting light a lot. And hes not a nit if hes isoing w 96s. Hes probably just card dead mostly. I get comments at the table about im so tight, but whenever ive had that its only bc im card dead.

I would say this guy can have AQ in his preflop 4bet range too. If he sees that you are 3betting very wide, im sure he would have AQ in his 4bet range against you.

And AQ is the hand that makes a lot of sense for him here. Its a vulnerable top pair hand, might as well just jam flop. I highly doubt he would just jam w a set here from up front. More likely in my opinion is AQ, AA, and maybe same hand that wants to just jam flop.

I would jam pre, but as played I'm calling. If he has aces we have outs. Im heavily discounting sets due to his flop action, but with partials of sets we still should call when he has AQ in there.

Jam pre, now call. If you get coolered pre, you get coolered, KK is when lag image is supposed to get paid.

You don't even know guy is a nit.

Result:

I think it's close preflop between fold and everything else vs. the 4bet.
Given description of V and that it's UTG/UTG+1 it's probably a fold, it's worth knowing the sizes he opened CO and folded to the 3bet in the previous hand though.
Also your 3bet is huge for UTG1 vs. UTG, even 3x his total bet is only $45 and you don't need to go that big.

Would 100% fold QQ/AK, but KK kind of sucks esp. if there's a shot he's tilted and doesn't believe you have it.


After you call the extra $125 nothing really matters IMO.

omfg

if hes a nit what are you beating on the flop?

AK. It isn't an issue of beating. You have 6 outs twice to beat AA/QQ/JJ, and an spr of about 1. With that much in preflop, it is hard to fold this flop.

So he stacked off AK vs KK last month, if anything this should tell you that you made the right move.

1. 3B'ing next to act over a UTG raise from a nit is always going to look super-strong. I don't love just flatting with KK for deception, especially not if the table is loose-passive with a bunch of half-wits that will call off a 3x open because pot odds, but I like it better than 3B'ing and playing our hand face up.

2. Why $55? Why not $45? Leave enough stack depth that you can flat call a 4B under $150 and see some flops. Related to the above, we could min-click it to $30, and probably fold out everyone else >90% of the time.

3. We can't fold any over-pair post flop at 1 SPR or less, so when V 4B's to $180, there's no calling. It's all in or fold. And if this guy understands that, his less than all-in 4B is super-nutted. I'm not saying we should fold KK, but if there was ever a guy we could fold KK to when he 4B's, this might be the guy.

4. Our range on the flop is basically AA, KK, AK, and MAYBE sometimes some slivers of QQ/JJ that just couldn't find a fold pre. I'm not saying we could or should fold KK to his jam, but he's got AA, KK, AK, and more QQ/JJ than we do, so he doesn't need to jam AK as a bluff, and MAYBE we can sometimes fold KK when the uber-nit jams after 4B'ing pre.

All the theory aside - it's 1/3, $500 deep. 80% of the player pool has a 4B range that is exactly AA/KK, maybe AKs, but not always AKo, and occasionally QQ when they get under $300 deep. This guy didn't fold for two hours just to suddenly get out of line by opening light from UTG, and then 4B light for over 35% of his stack as a bluff when he gets 3B next to act.

If we have KK, we're double-blocking AK, making it >40% that he has AA. A lot of AK is just going to flat the 3B and try to smash the flop, not 4B and pot-commit themselves to jamming any flop.