Quote:
Originally Posted by davomalvolio
Did both of your Kings match the suits on the board, or just one?
I’m leaning toward a call if so—we (and the board) would be blocking literally all of V’s AKs backdoor flush draw floats.
Granted, of course, he still has all the other suited ace floats, but it’s nice to block those. It’s also nice that the Ace that hit on the Turn did NOT complete a rainbow.
It’s hard to find many bluffs V has here since he raised UTG—JT and 78–but it’s possible he’s turning a hand like 88/TT/JJ into a bluff, correctly determining from your Turn check that you didn’t like the Ace.
Yeah, I think I’m calling this most of the time.
(I think I prefer betting the Turn, though believe it’s close either way. It is a better card for your range, and betting it again increases the likelihood that you can just go check-check on the River. I think I’m throwing out a small bet of around $500 on the Turn, and then checking back every River.)
i went through a similar thought process after the hand, although i also think checking back turn allows v to bluff a lot of hands that might otherwise c/f on turn, and we are way ahead / way behind so there really aren't a lot of cards we are worried about.
basically we are probably putting in just one more street of betting here a lot of the time, and if we bet turn, we can get check raised by better or by bluffs, get called mostly by better, or get folds from worse. by delaying to river we give him a chance to bluff when he's behind, pay a similar price when we are losing to if we just bet turn ourselves, don't get blown off by c/r bluffs, and occasionally get to bink a king.
this line of thought is less compelling if he 1) almost never check raises turn as a bluff and/or 2) rarely bluffs river. i didn't have enough of a read at the time to really say whether either of those is true, but i did feel like turn was a decent c/r bluff spot for him, even though the A is good for my range, since i should almost never have a 9.
