Hi,

I'm looking for thoughts on the following hand. It's 2/5 at MGMNH and effective stacks are $1,300. Villain is young(ish) regular who has played solid for the past few hours. He's 3-bet quite a few hands and shown down mostly winners -- he hasn't really seemed to get out line. Hero is also likely perceived as a solid, aggressive player. Hero has opened twice on the BU and folded to Villains 3-bet from the SB. Hero also caught Villain bluffing in a small pot.

Hero is dealt Kd Kc in the HJ and opens to $20. Villain calls in the CO and everyone else folds. (Pot is $47)

Flop: Jc 7h 3s

Hero bets $15. Villain raises to $60. Hero Calls. (Pot is $167)

Turn is Qd

Hero Checks; Villain Checks.

River: 3c

Hero bets $110. Villain raises to $400. Hero (?)

I'm really confused by the Villains line. I'm certain he 3bets Jacks and Queens almost 100% of the time, so I'm taking those holdings out. There aren't many two pair combos other than QJ that make sense. Maybe he got out of line with bottom pair on the flop and now has three of a kind but that also seems unlikely. But it's also difficult to find bluffs on this board other than maybe a gutter with backdoor flush potential on the flop. My bets have also been raised twice, which clearly signals strength.

Thoughts?

Agreed, completely bizarre line especially given the runout and no obvious missed draws.

I think solid player here is not over-valuing any 1 pair here hand here, so its 2p+ or an outright bluff. Given reads, solidity of player, and a general prior that River raises tend to be uber strong, this feels a fold.

Pocket 7s seems the most likely holding, and when the turn is Q completing rainbow, perhaps it feels safe for him to check behind (but that also begs the question, why he didn't just call flop, if he has that reasoning)

I think V would 100% just bluff catch river with Jx.

I also think he would barrel river with a set for value and to build a bigger pot once you call his flop raise.

The only river value I can see is if he was getting tricky and raised flop with A3s or something.

That being said, I can’t find bluffs.

I’m indifferent here. I may just pay him off to find out what he does this with lol. They usually have it though.

There are a few 2p combos that V can have but probably shouldn't. Depends on what they think their range should be from LP when they call. There could be some J7 or J3s in there but highly unlikely. Villain could have called with 77 or some other middle pocket pair. Then there is always the top pair weak kicker combos like J9 or J8 that could be making this raise. They could be doing this with some bottom pair hands like A3, but in general I don't think that their raise on the flop makes very much sense.

The turn shouldn't really change much in terms of their range. No draws come in and you already stated that you don't think that V would have just called with QJ. The x is good for pot control but then you bet on the river. On the river there are some trips and full houses that came in that you now lose to. It should be a blank but lets think back to when V raised on the flop, what makes sense for them to have now that we arrived to the river? Personally I think once you are raised on the flop you can pivot to bluff catching and x the river too. As played I think you have to consider paying him off because it just doesn't make that much sense.

What did you end up doing?

This line makes no sense besides 3x. Then again no one takes this line as a bluff..I would call, get shown A3 and file away the flop action for future use.

Pretty sick spot, nice post. I'd bet bigger/check on the flop but whatever. Would also overbet river, he is very capped and the runout is very nice for your overpairs, you could also have A3s, 33, 77, JJ. AP I'm not folding, he could have a rare tricky value hand, but to me it seems more likely that this is some random Jx lol blocker fps bluffraise from an overly aggro youngster. Odds are very good too.

Agree that it is very hard for V to have a meaningful bluffing range here.

The value hand which makes more sense is QJ, then 77 (although I'd expect V to continue betting ott with that), possibly A3 (in which case V went pretty frisky otf).
We beat what I think is V's main value hand, so I'm calling river.

You are top of your range here as played. V line makes no sense. Call.

Bet/3bet flop imo.

Also, wtf are you doing with these 25% pot cbets? Of course you got raised! Man up, go for value and bet 40ish and see if he still has a 3x raise in him.

For value, I can see villain having A3s, 63s, 53s, 43s. The flop raise is attacking a small bet on a flop you likely missed, where there are no draws. Once you call, he's like ok you've got a hand, let's take a free card.
That's the story he's telling but nothing else makes as much sense.

Is it possible this is Jx getting fancy and trying to rep the 3? Maybe...I guess you know the player and the extent of his creativity/boldness. Could also be some suited conn with gutshot+bdfd.

When solid thinking players pull a weird line and there's no obvious bluff it's just not a bluff. Solid players aren't raising this flop w/a J, it plays much better as a call in position. Only bluffs I can see are T9 or 98 but then why check back the turn just to bluff raise the river? That doesn't seem like the well though out plan of some solid player

That's my guess, flops the set puts you on Jx and checks back the turn to be tricky b/c he's afraid your going to fold when the overcard hits. Then fills up on the river and is trying to load you on the bus to valuetown

He could always be bluffing some but is he bluffing 25% of the time? IDK, this line seems super strong and I would guess underbluffed by the general population

Thanks for the responses everyone. Hero ends up making the call and villain shows 77 for a flopped set. It was one of those spots where I really struggled to make a decision, so I really appreciate the insight the from the group.

One of the thought processes that gets thinking players into trouble is “This line makes no sense for a hand that beats me so I call”. It’s not that thinking this way is bad, it’s that it’s only half the puzzle. The other half is “can he have bluffs here or could he be getting tricky? “

Before you make a call like this you need to put him on a range that includes at least few reasonable bluffs and not just spazz hands. But if he’s raising the flop with a gutter, why check the turn to raise the river when it misses? Just doesn’t make sense