Villain is not x/r JJ or 99 here. He is x/r AQ+. So if you want to argue that our flop jam will fold out his 12 combos of AQ then okay fine. I don't believe it will, especially if he has the A
, but that's beside the point so let's move past that.
Villain's x/r range is polarized to nutted hands and weak draws/air that we dominate. We have zero FE against his value range, so what does shoving accomplish? We are never folding our hand, so let's take the line that maximizes our EV vs. his range.
If villain has a hand like J
9
we are an 80% favorite. If he is going to shove any turn with that hand, why would we want to fold him out on the flop when we dominate him? Similarly, if villain has a hand like 9
8
we are an 83/17 favorite; versus 8
7
we are an 85/15 favorite. Even a hand like 5
4
we have 65% equity against and we don't want him to fold.
And if he's got total air and will bomb the turn, then let's let him! If he magically turns a pair and jams and we brick the river then so be it. It doesn't change the fact that our line maximized EV rather than "taking down the pot on the flop."
It would be nice if someone in the shove flop crowd came back with some range analysis and EV implications supporting their position because I'm just not seeing the upside or benefit. Villain has massive RIO's with his weak flushes which you guys are neglecting in your analysis.
We need 34% equity to call off the turn jam. We have 30% vs. his sets and 35% vs. his two pair. So I kick it back to you guys to show how isolating ourselves against just his value range + NFD's is the superior play.