Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellezza
I just thought he had a ton of weak Jacks and draws. Not much I can do, I'm committed, so let's do it. His turn bet convinced me even more because he sized down—probably didn’t like the Q.
That turn bet screams that this guy has no idea what to do with his hand. I feel like QJ, 33, and 22 would shove here. For me, this was a clear indicator that he's full of it.
Well, first off, I respect your gamble.
I wonder if you didn't have more of a read than you gave us here. His bet sizing on flop and turn would lead me to think he's strong, not weak.
I don't think we're committed before calling his turn bet, but we would be committed after, so that's the critical decision point IMO. I may be confused about the bet size. Was it $50 on flop and $100 on turn? How is that sizing down?
He bet 1/2 to 60% pot on both streets. While his turn bet may have been a slightly smaller percentage of the pot compared to his flop bet, it's not a small bet when he's only leaving himself about a PSB behind.
I'm not giving him 33 or 22 when he donks flop for 60% pot. I'm expecting those hands to donk full pot or check raise, with the check raise being more frequent.
I was thinking he's got all the QJo, all the AJo, and occasionally shows up with KJ or worse JX. But I think most of his JX combos slow down on the Q turn, so his barrel mostly looks like QJ, or maybe occasionally AcQc that limped in pre. I don't see enough over-bet jams on the turn from passive rec fish to think he's only jamming QJ, never betting less than full pot. I could see him weighing his fear of seeing another club on the river against his fear that his jam looks too strong and we fold everything that might call a smaller bet.
Interesting hand, no doubt.