KJo on the BTN: Are the Implied Odds Good Enough to Call Straight-Draw on the Turn?
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,064
1/2. V (240) seems solid. He’s the only one on the table besides hero who has 3bet in late position. Hero is TAG and covers.
Limp, limp, hero raises to 15 with KsJh on the button. SB folds. V in BB calls. One limper folds, one limper calls.
Flop (42 after rake): TsQs5h
Check, hero bets 15, V calls, limper folds.
Turn (70 after rake): 4c
V donks 25. No more rake, pot is 95. Hero folds.
Bet more on the flop? Were the implied odds on the turn good enough to call? Does V donk with two spades? On the river, is As a bad card and the other aces bad too because they shut down the action?
Last edited by adonson; 09-19-2023 at 05:55 AM.
Join Date: Apr 2022
Posts: 651
I would say you are clearly getting the right odds to continue here. You're almost getting direct pot odds (you only need 20% to call), plus you have some implied odds, and your King is going to be live sometimes. You can also just have the best hand here sometimes against a hand like J9s or 76ss. In addition, you will have a great bluffing candidate if a Spade rolls off and Villain checks to you.
Villain's line looks weak to me here, so I might even consider raising turn. It's pretty hard for him to have a good hand here when he doesn't raise flop and then donks small on the turn. But I also have a tendency to make spewy plays in spots like this, so calling in position is probably the more sensible play.
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 1,721
Folding seems far too weak at these odds. Be grateful for position, take the odds, see a river. Yes some of your outs aren't clean but other than that you're drawing to the nuts.
Join Date: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,689
I would call, value bet if we bink a straight and bluff tons of rivers if checked to, maybe if we face another small bet on river. If we were deeper I would consider raising the turn, but if we get called and don't bink we don't have a ton of fold equity for the river.
Join Date: Jul 2021
Posts: 1,646
i mean definitely call, im unsure about EV of raise compared to call. this is usually marginal hand / draw that wants to see a cheap card. the size is too small to fold to - youre basically getting odds to draw to a K / straight and should be able to bluff on a spade at least. if he pots or something u can fold but here you're getting almost 3:1
Last edited by submersible; 09-19-2023 at 10:18 AM.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 11,491
Yeah, I would bet alil more otf like around 20/25. With an OESD, you wanna get at least 5 to 1 on your money, so with a little more implied odds they're there to call, even though the flush/ace will potentially kill the action but the fold isn't as bad as it looks, it's almost a break even spot anyway.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 15,247
I think 1/2 pot to 2/3 better on flop.
Ks and having a J should give you more fold equity.
The turn is a call at a minimum as you're getting direct odds to call and you might have more outs than just hitting a straight.
I think the decision is between calling and raising.
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,064
My leak is overlooking implied odds when the pot odds are insufficient. Slightly worse than 4:1 pot odds pushed me to fold. I told myself, if the house was not raking the game, the pot odds would have been better than 4:1. Maybe I would have called. Next time, I will. Thanks for your advice.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 2,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by adonson
My leak is overlooking implied odds when the pot odds are insufficient. Slightly worse than 4:1 pot odds pushed me to fold. I told myself, if the house was not raking the game, the pot odds would have been better than 4:1. Maybe I would have called. Next time, I will. Thanks for your advice.
What?