1/3 NLHE. 1-500.

V - massive whale. Playing all the time, from out of town. Says he's up big but H has only seen him lose lose lose over the past weeks. Trying to LAG and failing. Straddle for 6 all the time. Likes big sizings, bets draws, keeps his foot on the gas when checked to but can read a board (folded 99 after an open and a call from a loose passive who then donked on a K-Q-X flop). Not a total maniac but way too loose pre and post (45/10/3 approx.). Whale is steaming as H just nutted whale for his whole 500 buy in on a J-7-4 rainbow flop where H opened 77 pre and V called with J-4. Whale has now rebought and is visibly tilted.

H had K-J and covers V with about 800, V has 500.

V opens for 12 when folded to (his usual) from MP, H calls in LP, all else fold.

Flop 25 - Q 8 5

V bets 15, H calls

Turn 65 - 6

V overbets 75, H thinks and calls

River 215 - Q

V checks, H bets 110.

Thoughts?

This isn’t GTO approved but… I HATE bluffing a guy who just got felted. All of their impulses are going to be to call (“it’s the only way I can get back to even!”) so if he has any piece of it he’s gonna look you up.

That’s really the only issue I have with it, your line looks like 3 queens, and there’s almost no chance Villain has a big hand. I just…..”game flow” is one of the only reads I put any stock in, and “game flow” suggests this is not a guy you want to bluff. (This is also why your call on the Turn is good: BECAUSE he won’t fold, you have huge implied odds, bigger than normal.)

But I hope it worked!

Preflop you said he is opening 100% when checked to preflop? 3bet this $40 if that is the case and fold to large 4bet sizing. Bet $30 on flop after the three bet.

What are you trying to fold out? AA? KK? Because $100 wont do it. If you are folding out A high flussh draws or something like 75dd I think you can bet much smaller. Im not sure what you heed to bet to fold out AA or KK here. Maybe 1.5x. Im also concerned thisV put you on a flush draw after he pounded the turn for value with AQ, a straight or a set and handed you some rope on the river. I would bet $70 on the river some of the time and check the rest. All read dependent. Body language and timing on the river check, im going with my intial feeling without thinking about it.

Seems fine.

Strongly prefer Hero 3! pre though.

I'm fine with flatting preflop. 3betting does give us the advantage of likely isolating at a slightly higher rate. But flatting in LP is still going to isolate a lot and meanwhile create a much more desirable SPR.

Flop call is pretty speculative but I guess with an over and some backdoors not horrendous. I think I'd prefer at least a gutshot though.

We're getting fairly horrendous immediate odds on the turn, especially when we account for rake. We'd probably need a PSB bet on the river called a huge percentage of the time when making our flush (which is admittedly well disguised) to actually make any money. K might be a good card or a bad card. Pairing flush cards might be bad. I guess we might be able to steal on some 4-to-a-straight cards, maybe? I think both flop and turn are a bit dicey, imo.

I'm fine with our river bet. Our hand reads exactly like a Qx and there's not really any busted flop draws that we can be on that he's attempting to induce bluffs from.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I think it's fine vs. some players, but I'm not sure this guy is the type to fold any pair right now, so all we beat is A high. I hope I'm wrong or that he doesn't have a pair.

Would you normally just call flop/turn w/ a Q? (Not that he would probably know.)

Edit: If you just felted him for $500, what happened to the other $200 in such a short time? Could that affect anything?

Pre seems fine to me if V is playing 45/10, we have no clear range advantage to 3! and when he calls which is always, we play a bloated pot. If he was more like 45/30 yeah we have to 3!.

Flop is a little frisky if this guy doesn't slow down after cbets because we have to fold many turns.

What is our plan when calling the turn? We have to fold to a river bet unless we hit our flush or K, neither of which are nut outs, so I think this has to be a losing play to an overbet.

Bluff seems good in a vacuum OTR since V presumably never has Qx and rarely AA/KK. This type is likely to look you up light though. If he has 86s/65s/85s for counterfeited two pair he may spite call.

Overall the turn is the only street I outright dislike, flop is OK in a vacuum but I think doesn't play the player and pre / river are good except that I question whether we should skip the bluff vs. this guy - you were there and I wasn't though. If he can fold, river is well played IMO.

3bet pre

Flop is fine
Turn is a snap fold vs this sizing

River i’d go much bigger (near pot) or give up, leaning more towards giving up.

This. I don’t mind the river bet but you gotta make it bigger if you’re going to bet.

I don’t usually advocate for being a jerk because A) I try to treat people the way I want to be treated as a rule and B) I think it’s, in general, higher EV to be kind, but if you bluff and he folds, I show it to maximize future tilt.

Can you elaborate on this?

Result:

If we assume that he raises the top 10% of hands, KJ isn't necessarily crushing that range.

I think river is weird, slight overbet on turn in theory V is repping 97s and maybe all the sets. Maybe 65? Maybe tilt betting big with AQ? AdQd/QdTd makes some sense, if you don't think about what it's targeting. 97/sets unlikely with the river check, as it's not really a board to be scared of full houses on (unless he's hoping you bluff).

On the "bluff" side, maybe Ad5d/5d4d/Ad7d/7d5d (other *d7d that gets here?). Expecting overbets with all 76/75/87 seems ambitious, but tilt is a great drug.
I guess other *d*d hands that decided to fire twice, but gave up assuming you have a Q. Which is something like: AdKd/AdTd/Ad9d/Td9d, maybe Ad4d-


River doesn't seem much better than checking. Yeh, he probably folds random A high or maybe a random 5 ... but he's never folding Q+, and I doubt any 8 is a good fold even if he makes it. 76 is in a bad spot, but might also be a call.
You are also repping exactly KQ, maybe QJ? If you went bigger then maybe KQ and a slow played set? Which goes really bad if he decides to x/r with A7/75/etc.

KJs is behind a top 10% range. I don't see the point in 3betting here when we have a range disadvantage and very little fold equity.