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K flush draw in huge pot

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07-30-2010 , 05:59 PM

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

1000 effective 2/5

2/5 live 1100eff

Hero in CO with K4s, 3 limpers, hero limps, Btn limps, BB fishy aggro tho raises to 25, all call. (I normally would raise here but I was talking to a friend not concentrating on hand at this moment)

Pot 150

Flop Js Td 9s

Fish fires 100, hero calls, BTN now goes allin for 100 + 900, Fish calls allin

So now its 900 for hero to call into a 2250 pot

Notes: Im never against a worse flush draw, and both villains will definitely have either NFD or made hands or combo draws containing NFD. KQ even, really is a very remote possibility for either on them.

Do you feel this call to be -EV, +EV or basically Neutral EV?

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07-30-2010 , 06:34 PM

cashgamepoker500

banned

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 2,094

id call if i had the A10s or something. im not calling and risking one of them having the NFD and making me basically be drawing dead. not worth the risk. you've invested 25bb's so far, i think you can find a fold, im not good with math though so im not sure if its +ev to call here, my hunch is its not. i wanna say its neutral/slightly -ev?

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07-30-2010 , 07:09 PM

Cbarton

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,304

1) Fold pre flop pre the raise
2) Fold pre flop after the raise, you are not closing out the action.
3) Fold the flop you have no pair and if the board goes brick, brick you may feel foolish.

You might win 1/3 of these to your EV question but if this is for $1000 and you lose and you lose the next for $1000 and you win the third one for $300, that is -EV. Calling gives you no fold equity.

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07-30-2010 , 07:11 PM

AintNoLimit

Coach live/online NLHE

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 6,399

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbarton

ok, now here is the real question. Are you serious with your reply here?

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07-30-2010 , 07:33 PM

Moses Mace

stranger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 11

Based on your reads on the other players, it sounds like you are giving them quite a bit of credit for at minimum two pair, likely set, flush draw, straight or OE+NFD. I'm a n00b, so check my figuring, please. Best case scenario is two pair and a set which gives you ~35% to win. So if you have to call 900 into 2250 or 2.5 to 1, the odds are close but not quite. I think adding in the likelihood that you are totally crushed by the combination of the two hands (A10s, QK with Q spades, Q10 spades in one hand, set in the other) the call seems -EV to me.

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07-30-2010 , 08:05 PM

KneedUrDough

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,210

Is this thread's purpose to figure out who's dopey and who's not? Is there a trick question here? I'm rereading it right now! lol

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07-30-2010 , 08:23 PM

Cbarton

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,304

Quote:

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

ok, now here is the real question. Are you serious with your reply here?

Yes K4 suited is not a playable hand.
If you feel confident playing and you know your answer, why post the question?

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07-30-2010 , 09:09 PM

KneedUrDough

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,210

Quote:

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

ok, now here is the real question. Are you serious with your reply here?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbarton

You might win 1/3 of these to your EV question but if this is for $1000 and you lose and you lose the next for $1000 and you win the third one for $300, that is -EV. Calling gives you no fold equity.

I think he was talking about this part

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07-30-2010 , 09:13 PM

MK7749

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,173

BB could easily have 87. i guess u are up against TPTK (if vil is that fishy), 2 pair (likely), str8s (more 87 then KQ IMO), and maybe a hand like AQss which is absolutely terrible for you.

I would fold. I dont think you have enough equity here maybe if the pot was closer to 2700 then yea i would think about it.

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07-30-2010 , 09:14 PM

#10

Cbarton

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,304

Quote:

Originally Posted by KneedUrDough

I think he was talking about this part

I still believe it is a factor. The question is it +EV and I say no, for the reasons I gave and a few more.

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07-30-2010 , 09:15 PM

#11

MK7749

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 2,173

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbarton

Yes K4 suited is not a playable hand.
If you feel confident playing and you know your answer, why post the question?

meh depending on Vil its ok. against Vils who play fit and fold, just about any hand is playable.

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07-30-2010 , 10:07 PM

#12

Cbarton

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 1,304

Quote:

Originally Posted by MK7749

meh depending on Vil its ok. against Vils who play fit and fold, just about any hand is playable.

Hero in CO with K4s, 3 limpers, hero limps, Btn limps, BB fishy aggro tho raises to 25, all call.

6 people in the hand here...

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07-31-2010 , 02:16 AM

#13

BobbyDurr

enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 98

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cbarton

Hero in CO with K4s, 3 limpers, hero limps, Btn limps, BB fishy aggro tho raises to 25, all call.

6 people in the hand here...

...makes the hand even more playable, you'd rather play a HU pot?!?!

ps I think your guttee makes it slightly +ev imo but I'd prob fold for $900!

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07-31-2010 , 09:01 AM

#14

KneedUrDough

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,210

This is a trick question...

...I would have said that this situation is resoundingly -EV (because of all the times u could be drawing almost dead) but then I 'Stoved' it putting in the range u gave ur opponents.

Quote:

Originally Posted by AintNoLimit

Notes: Im never against a worse flush draw, and both villains will definitely have either NFD or made hands or combo draws containing NFD. KQ even, really is a very remote possibility for either on them.

Code:

---
  10,225,572  games     0.407 secs    25,124,255  games/sec

Board: Js Td 9s
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     33.821%      32.64%     01.18%            3337756        120670.33   { Ks4s }
Hand 1:     33.089%      30.79%     02.29%            3148947        234625.83   { AA, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ, JcJd, JcJh, JdJh, TT, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9d9h, AsQs, AcJc, AdJd, AhJh, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, Q8s, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Jc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Tc9c, Td9d, Th9h, 87s, AcJd, AcJh, AdJc, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, Q8o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTc, JdTh, JdTs, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jd9c, Jd9h, Jh9c, Jh9d, Tc9d, Tc9h, Td9c, Td9h, Th9c, Th9d, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, 87o }
Hand 2:     33.089%      30.79%     02.29%            3148947        234625.83   { AA, KcKd, KcKh, KdKh, QQ, JcJd, JcJh, JdJh, TT, 9c9d, 9c9h, 9d9h, AsQs, AcJc, AdJd, AhJh, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, KcQc, KdQd, KhQh, Q8s, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, Jc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Tc9c, Td9d, Th9h, 87s, AcJd, AcJh, AdJc, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, Q8o, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, JdTc, JdTh, JdTs, JhTc, JhTd, JhTs, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jd9c, Jd9h, Jh9c, Jh9d, Tc9d, Tc9h, Td9c, Td9h, Th9c, Th9d, Ts9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, 87o }


---

So...

...if it's $900 to call a pot containing $2250 u only need ~28.571% equity to call and I would have folded lol.

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07-31-2010 , 09:54 AM

#15

jolyroger

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 657

LOL at villians never having smaller flush draw. With a gutshot I can never fold.

You can list a lot of drawing hands absent the nut flush draw that can get in here. If you are dumb enough to put $25 in pre on K4ss why can't QTss or 86ss.

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07-31-2010 , 10:13 AM

#16

KneedUrDough

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 3,210

Quote:

Originally Posted by jolyroger

LOL at villians never having smaller flush draw. With a gutshot I can never fold.

It's an made up scenario, no?

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