4 AM. 1-3 NLHE, 6 handed at the Aria.
I have only been at table for about 2 rounds so no real reads.
Effective stacks of around 280

UTG folds, UTG +1 calls, folds to me on the BTN.
I raise to 12 with JT
SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

3 players to the flop: JT9 (49 in pot)

BB, UTG+1 both check. I bet 30. BB insta raises to 100. UTG+1 thinks about it for a moment and calls. Hero???

While I'm tanking, UTG+1 says something like "let's speed it up here" in a way that conveyed weakness, not strength to me. So take that for what its worth.

Also- In hindsight I like betting 35-40 on this flop instead of 30, though that wouldn't really change the dilemma we are currently in

Call.

Call or shove? Whats your plan on any , K, Q, 8 turn card?

Its true that we don't have a lot (if any) fold equity with only 280sh effective stacks. But I think shoving is better than calling no? When we shove we are guaranteeing ourselves all five cards, and can't be moved off our hand when a scare card hits.

Shouldnt the pot be around 35-40? I like your bet. As played tough spot..

Pretty easy fold.

You are right. yeah the pot is like 37 I think. In which case, I like my bet size too

I think its between a jam or a fold. UTG never has a made hand here unless its KQs. Now you have to decide what the heck the bb check raised with. It could be a number of flopped straights which seems most likely. I suppose I am folding due to the fact that this is a 3 way flop and someone's gotta have the goods but I def don't like folding.

fold, you're not beating both of them. BB probably has a set, and UTG looks pretty good for KQ. Reads would obv help.

I've been overbetting the pot in spots like this a fair amount with hands this strong. still getting called by most draws, especially flush draws.

This is a jam or fold. You're not improving. The pot if you call is well over $300 and there is $170 left. You aren't stopping a FD or SD from calling, you're getting value from it. If you're behind, you've got 4 outs to hit. It is an easy fold.

Personally, I'm getting it in.

Raise a tad more preflop, 14-16
OTF just bet pot or slightly less, so many draws out there. I would most probably sigh fold in this spot, thinking that BB has a monster in this spot most of the time and UTG+1 NFD or similar

Folding here, BB insta raise into two opponents is a strong line. Possibly a set but most likely 78.

Reason? I think hero is behind most of the time against a raise and is possibly only drawing to four outs.

IMHO. I like calling slightly better then shoving because we have position and also for the same reason you mentioned above. Little fold equity...and whether we are shoving into BB with a better hand is unknown (T9/J9/draw). UTG+1 is also getting decent odds to (likely) call with his "draw"?

Whats your plan on any , K, Q, 8 turn card?
Likely Fold/Check.

Tough spot either way. Simply folding is also not bad.

Did you get to see the turn card?

A set is rarely c/r in this situation. We hold two blockers to the set. Neither is a straight They don't want the flush to hit.

If I'm going to fold top two to pressure when raising JT pf, I need to stop raising JT pf.

I don't disagree w this, but inexperienced players don't think ahead - it's against every fiber of their being to lead out instead of slowplaying.

That's one reason I mentioned reads would be really helpful, the other ofc being we can include/exclude hands like KQ/K9/78 from these players based on their actions.

I like both of these points actually and makes BB check/raise sizing more interesting to me now. Thanks.

I still think we should take advantage of our position, put pressure on V's and make a better decision on a "favourable" turn card

Which BTW we still do not know what it was

... What? Why is a set or straight never raising here if were playing against half decent villains?

I don't like folding or raising.

Call.

I know we'd be committing a ton of effective stacks without deciding to stack off, but I think that's OK. We're going to have position on the turn and can decide to get it in or not depending on action, card, etc.

We're going to conditionally commit on the turn. There are a lot of cards and actions that make life easy. Like if turn is a Q and villain(s) ships anyway, it's an easy fold, and we can expect a straight a lot. If turn is a blank and we get two checks, we can ship ourselves. If it's a blank and someone else ships, we're getting it in a lot, etc. I'm not articulating every action/card here, but you get the idea.

On the flop, we're getting ~4:1 on a call, we're going to have position on the turn, and people are going to play pretty straightforward on most turn cards. That said, yes, we will be committing on a ton of turn cards and actions, but there will also be some situations where we will appropriately fold on the turn.

In terms of ranges, I'm less worried about UTG+1 - he didn't 4-bet on this texture, so it's hard to think he has a real monster. T9 is likely, QJ, 98 are possible, any number of draws, etc. BB's c/raise is more worrisome, but there are still plenty of draws, weaker made hand possibilities, and tons of pair + draw possibilities (QT, KT, QJ/KJ with or without spades, etc., etc).

I think people are rushing too quickly to "raise or fold" - calling is OK as long as we're conditionally committing to the hand.

This is a 6 handed game, and you're putting both players on monsters? I'm definitely not folding top 2 pair on a super wet board when starting stacks were less than 100bb.


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FWIW, I think UTG's table talk is highly indicative of a draw (probably spades + maybe a straight draw). He just put in alot of money to see if he can hit the turn and now the punk on the button is taking forever. If he had the nuts he'd probably let you take 10 minutes to call if you wanted to.

I do like calling here in position for $70, seeing the turn card and action and re-evaluating. Willy explained why effectively in his post. They should be playing pretty face up on the turn most of the time.

I also don't mind shoving. You'll get it in enough against flush draws, QJ, KJ, J8 to make it +EV. Plus you have 4 outs twice when you're wrong.

Folding is meh but acceptable is you happen to be playing under-rolled for the game, as its a very high variance spot.

I really hate calling here.

Folding>Shoving>>>>>>Calling.

Four outs really isn't that much against two players.

If you don't have solid reads on these players, why are you isolating with JTo?

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Calling is the right play.

I agree with this. People tend to play their buttons too aggro imo, the button shouldn't give you the freedom to raise any 2.