Villain is a MAWG (joyless-expression, chip-shuffling, sporting the stereotypical "hand-on-shoulder-power-pose"). Have only played w/ eachother about an hour. Rest of table playing pretty ABC/loose. My image is likely tight/ABC.

I'm at about $430. Straddle is in effect OTB.

Flop bet/sizing reasonable? Call or fold to the raise? If we call, what's our turn plan? Thanks a lot.

Hero (SB): J J

BTN straddles $6, Hero raises $31, BB calls, fold x 2, call x 2, Villain (CO) calls, BTN calls.

Flop ($180): T 8 8

Hero bets $60, fold x 3, Villain raises to $150, fold, Hero ???

I often just limp at loose tables like this, cuz otherwise we're just building a bloated multiway pot OOP which can get us in some gross spots (where really we're almost setmining and yet we likely won't play like that postflop). Here thanks to the lol 5 calls (standard, imo) we've created a $186 pot and only have $400 left; so really no room at all to figure things out postflop and will likely be put to a commitment decision on the flop.

And here's that spot. I'm fine with the smallish bet on this fairly drawless board, but now we're facing that raise which is pretty much asking us if we want to play for stacks. It's a weird spot because you'd think he woulda raised bigger overpairs preflop with all this dead money, and with this low SPR on a fairly drawless board you'd think he'd just flat the flop with an 8 (entice Button to common along and prevent a hero fold from us, knowing that he can trivially get the chips in on later streets) and slowplay TT. But on the other hand, he also knows exactly what we have (we just raised preflop in EP and bet into eleventeen players, might as well just table our hand, imo), so maybe he's just raising his ~nuts here to make stacks go in even easier. I think it's a tough spot, but perhaps others don't.

Gcreatebetterspotsforourselves,imoG

Unless I have a particular read on V that he semi-bluffs, I think it is a fold. It looks very much like he wants to play for stacks and even if he is semibluffing you'll likely be put all in on the turn. Plus, there is no flush draw out there, so J9 would really be the main hand a villain would semi bluff and we have two blockers.

I think we are slightly ahead or way behind and that makes me fold this.

Again, this is bananas bad advice with a big pocket pair and, at worst, 70 bb effective stacks after the straddle. This is a crazy obvious raise, and the only real shock is it's 5 ways.

The solution to this is raise more if that's what it takes, not limp.

Back to the OP: I think I'd rather check or bet/fold for slightly more on the flop vs. what we did. What are we trying to accomplish with the mini bet?

It's 90 more into 390, yeesh, it's kinda crazy to fold, although calling here is basically committing.

I kinda wish we'd bet a little more to where bet/fold didn't seem so nitty.

Teeny flop bet is asking to get raised and you probably shouldn't have made it if now you're asking what to do. It's like there's no plan for how the hand is going to go down.

Prob need to bump it up bigger pf too since you're oop and there's like $10 in dead money already. $40 or higher would do better. Alternatively I don't mind limp/rr in this spot if players behind like to attack dead money. Being in sb with a narrow range and everyone knows it is a really undesirable situation.

I'd probably just fold and kick myself for being so easy to play back at. You can potentially get owned like 100% of the time in this spot, I think V is printing money by raising atc here.

This is where I constantly disagree with the forum. Our raise size, so long as it is reasonable, has no bearing on whether we end up 6ways or not. We're in EP and thus have no clue how many people want to see a flop. You think whether we raise it to $15 vs $35 has much difference on this? Mostly all it will take is one speculative call in EP and then everyone else who has what they consider a playable hand will think themselves priced in. I mean, what sizing are you advocating? $50? $75?

And now, simply cuz "I haz JJ", we are now likely playing the only pot that will matter tonight. Better hope we make the correct decision here, because we will have trouble winning overall if all we do is get decisions like this incorrect in huge pots. And, imo, it's a tough decision, so very easy to get the decision incorrect. If you're confident in your decision making in these spots, then the preflop result won't be of much concern; otherwise, I'd attempt to avoid it.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Figured a smaller bet would get more calls from his 99/77-22/QJ, & I didn't want to turn my hand completely face-up by blasting here & possibly let Tx off the hook too. I didn't figure to get raised light per se, but then I realized that Tx isn't necessarily a "light" raise here for certain players, & some guys definitely bump it for protection/information, even on dryish boards. Like you said, we're basically in commitment territory, and I don't know how we fold 90% of rivers w/ only half a stack & two streets left if we decide to call flop. I guess if we're really, really certain that he shuts down on turns/rivers w/ a Tx we can call, but that seems to be hard to say for certain

But people will make less speculative calls when we limp???
You do realize that everyone of those speculative calls makes us money on average, right? And since when we raise the pot is bigger on average also, we are just giving away heaps of EV when we limp vs when we raise.
Essentially, when someone calls $6 with a speculative hand, it's a small mistake that makes us a bit of money, if they call $35 with that same hand, it's a big(ger) mistake that makes us a lot of money.


AP, i really like our flop sizing, and i really hate folding here because it sooooo exploitable, but this is probably the bottom of our cbetting range and we block J9.... so yes, sigh fold.

I think you are turning your hand face up with this bet sizing, it reads like a scared bet.

If you're not enamored with this line in a five way pot on this board, then maybe it's a check with the knowledge that that is a give up play against a number of V.

I lean towards the bet/fold, though, because you are ahead a fair amount of the time, and we're going to hate a lot of turns

This is terribly wrong in most games in 2018, and it's why your posts consistently keep missing this point.

I agree with a lot of this, we just have to acknowledge that this is probably a huge bet sizing tell, and it is super exploitable to anyone with a brain.

I think it's perfectly fine to adjust JJ to be your set-mining hand at tables where flops are frequently seen 4-5 ways even after a sizeable preflop raise. Then it would be to your benefit to limp or raise smaller.
Do these conditions arise often? Probably not. Have I been at such tables? Definitely.

Some hypotheticals:
We're not actually deep, we're at 140BB or 70BB if you consider straddle as halving stack depth. But we're also not shallow enough to say "Boy I'm fist pump piling chips in the center with JJ"
Let's say we use a larger sizing here and make it $45 pre. We get 3! by someone to $150 and another short stack shoves (we aren't given stack depths in this hand, wonder why?)
Are we stacking off with JJ now? This is LLSNL, so the bottom of their 3! range is like TT & AQs. What's short stack's stack off range? Probably some suited overs and pocket 9s if we're lucky.

Ok, so let's say everything went our way, and now we have OP's hand history. If we call, we're playing for stacks. And we have no reads. And we're OOP. And we have no idea if we're still ahead if an overcard comes on the turn.

I'm not sure about your flop bet. Are you trying to induce? If that's the case, then you should be fist pump re-shoving on him.

Thanks for your input. In response:

A) Some people size the opposite of what I'm doing here -- blast w/ overpairs, block w/ half-hearted bluffs -- so not sure my hand gives anything away based on that. Also, if I am contemplating a CB bluff (w/ QJs, etc.), I might size similarly anyway @ this SPR, as I can set up a shove on many turn cards w/ this bet sizing whether I hit or miss.

B) Most people play their hand/range more than ours @ this level, & they generally play ABC, so I'm more worried about making them comfortable calling lighter w/ their pocket-pairs/Tx than I am trying to disguise my hand perfectly in-a-relative-vacuum @ 1/3 -- hence the sizing. However, in hindsight, I didn't really consider how often smaller-sizing might induce Tx to raise for info/protection (as overplaying medium made hands IS a thing @ 1/3 & lower), & got a little tripped up in real-time over that possibility.

With that said, obviously I see the benefits of larger sizing & your logic generally, as it buys us alot more clarity now/later & we don't potentially give anything away to astute opponents who want to level us.

Sometimes I read your posts and think we play in the same game GG. (Although I know that's not the case since, if I remember correctly, you play in the great white north, eh?) But this hits the nail on the head for a lot of the games I play in at my local casino. Just tonight I was in a 1/3 game where I open raised UTG to $38 and saw a 5 way flop, first to act after the flop...all aboard the variance train! But had I limped with the intent to reraise in the same hand, there's a good chance everyone would be seeing the flop for $3. I go back and forth in my opinion of what the best way to approach these games is. This poker concept has been around a long time though. It's called schooling. The first fish makes a rediculously unprofitable call vs us, but with each additional fish added to the school, their individual decisions become less bad. Anyway, sorry to derail the thread, just wanted to let GG know you're not alone here.

Almost every single 1/3 NL HH thread I've responded to in the last week or so involves the OP raising and going like 5way to the flop. It's a totally standard result in any game I've played; if yours differs, that's fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't think your bet turns your hand face up - it looks like your hand is weaker than it is... most of us probably wouldn't be c-betting this board into a crowd with AK/AQ but due to the small betsize, it's possible V thinks that's what you have. So he'd feel comfortable raising with a Tx hand or maybe 99 or the aforementioned J9.

Regarding the size of the flop bet, even though it's a small 1/3 PSB, I'm not convinced anyone is playing back at it any more than they would a 2/3 PSB.

First, we just continued OOP after making a big raise preflop into 5 opponents; this is like *never* AK, right? Everyone knows we have an overpair, so now it's just a matter of whether we can fold it. I don't see how $60 vs $150 makes any difference in that regard.

Second, what does everyone bet here with TT? About $60?

GcluelessNLnoobG

I was re-reading T+P last night. Everyone should check out concept#26 in the Concepts part (if I remember the # correctly), where it addresses the concept that is constantly coming up here lately, which is basically: The worst preflop sizing you can do is one that likely commits you postflop while at the same time offering a bunch of opponents great IO. Here we offered 5 opponents 19+ IO where we'll be facing a commitment decision on the flop. And, BTW, for those who hate PNLHE and it's concept of SPR (where it addresses the exact same thing), T+P was published before the SPR concept was even conceived (and yet recognized the exact same issue).

Gpreflopthinkingonthisforumisincorrect,imoG

The average person has a stack smaller than ours and is getting implied odds nowhere near that

I don't think it says that anywhere?

Admittedly, OPs write up is a little unclear on this, but the only stack size I see mentioned is ours at $430. Unless told otherwise, I'm making the reasonable assumption that's an effective type stack.

Yeah, if everyone (except one other guy) is sitting at like $150 or whatever, sure, preflop is a lot more acceptable.

GcluelesseffectivestacksizenoobG

Its a mix of stacks. MAWG villain has me covered. Rest of them are hovering somewhere between $100-$300. I'd estimate the avg BI for my games is about 60-70BB, but capped @ $400 BI.

Results?

Looks like fold is the consensus? This is probably why I try not to get myself in these spots, as I think I'm leaning towards a shove (with the thought being that monster hands typically flat here to not allow us to fold plus invite others along on a fairly non-drawy board). And not necessarily shoving cuz I think worse will call, but simply because if I'm continuing I feel committed and yet will hate a bunch of the deck.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Agreed. But if he has some Tx here, are we calling flop & expecting him to check those back on brick turns or continue firing? Seems that if we call now we can't fold later given stacks.

That's the way it seems, especially on blank turns (K/Q possibly included). It's a tough raise size to evaluate because it looks equally like an extraction raise with 8x or a feeler raise with Tx/99/semi-bluff.

I think we'd need a little more info on postflop tendencies - willingness to put in stack, double-barrel, etc. and even preflop - would he coldcall kk/qq?

Where I would go back and question, somewhat results-oriented, is whether betting 1/3 pot is best. We could check-and-see or bet larger (so you'd feel more confident you're not being attacked for a weak bet).