Live 2/5, good game, getting late. I am getting back into playing live NLH after a long detour into mostly PLO.
Villain in this hand is a spewy gambler who hates to fold. He is on his fourth or fifth rebuy in two hours. I have seen him continue flops with nothing, make desperate multistreet bluffs, etc. I recently beat him in a huge pot where I flopped top set and he turned under-trips on a flush board and got 200bb in without filling up.
I have been running pretty good and I think table probably sees me as a solid player, aggressive but not nitty.
I have J
J
in SB. There is a $10 straddle, villain limps button, I raise to $40, only villain calls. He has a little over $1k and I cover. At this point villain can have any two cards but he has been raising a lot pre-flop so he should be pretty weak here. I would expect him to raise any ace, any pair, any broadway and a wide range of suited or unsuited whatever. Would not totally rule out him limping a big hand, but I would be surprised.
Flop is T
6
4
I bet 50 into 90 and he calls immediately. Again, I'm putting him on almost any two cards worse than top pair here.
Turn K
At this point I check, planning to check/call twice. I expect him to bet when checked to here with almost anything. He quickly bets 100 and I call.
River 8
I check, he quickly bets 250, I call.
I am discounting Kx and sets, but his value range definitely includes any two pair, 57, 79 and backdoor flushes. Since I expect him to bluff almost any other hand, check-call seems best.