Playing 1/3, 9 handed in Houston

1k effective, villains mostly unkown, Hero is effective stack

Main V is 50's asian male, seems passive, and possibly tight post but Hero has only been at the table about an hour.

OTTH:

UTG+1 raises to $20 (standard)
UTG+2 (the spot at the table) flats
Hero in LJ jooks down at JJ and 3 bets to $105
BTN (main villain) cold calls
Blinds fold
UTG+1 calls
UTG+2 calls

Flop ($424): 992
Check
Check
Hero bets $135 for protection from overs and value from lower pairs and flush draws
BTN calls
UTG+1 folds
UTG+2 folds

Turn ($694): 9924
Hero checks
Btn checks back

River ($694): 99243

We have a little over a pot sized bet behind,

Hero?

I don't think V will have to many flushes in what ever range he cold calls 3!s with other than a few suited broadways, but there should be a decent amount of pairs. Is it worth bet-folding for thin value, or are we done putting money in with one pair?

This is one of those situations where you need to figure out a game plan on how to play it on the flop. You don't have any room to maneuver. The first is whether you want to stack off or not. With an SPR of about 2, you don't want to be betting if your plan is to fold to any pressure.

As played, one of the draws got there on the river. If you were going to bet, the turn would have been better.

Yeah, turn is a great spot to bet. He has no 9x after he cold calls a 3bet (I think he just has suited broadways and mid pps 88-TT). You actually look stronger with the bet flop, check turn, bet river line. Just bet flop/bet turn/ and expect to get called by pps putting you on AK.

Only argument against betting turn is if you think he’s so tight pre that his cold 3 flatting range is more concentrated on QQ-99. Then turn bet is getting a bit thin.

As played, it seems like a fine spot to bet/fold for a small amount on the river. Like 225 seems fine, targeting TT.

FWIW there was a plan in place but I didn't want to make the post extraordinarily long.

Plan:

The 3! was to iso the spot which had worked once so far. Btn cold calling the 3! started the calling cascade.

C-bet was to target the hands for value that the UTG+1 & +2 (mostly +2 the spot) would have like PPs and flush draws and fold out the BTN who I thought was least likely to have a flush draw and would most likely not float w/ small and medium pocket pairs with two players left to act. I figured he had a lot of ace high he could fold as well like AK, AQ etc.

Once the BTN called and +1 and the spot folded, things obviously did not go as planned and I had no plan for the situation that developed.

To me it became a matter of ranging him for hands he cold calls 3!s with and then calls on that flop with two left to act. I had a hard time with that in the hand especially once he checked back the turn.

I really couldn't decide between bet folding or check folding because if I checked, he didn't seem like the type to stab with ace high or bet worse for value.

Range of cold calling 3bets is gonna be fairly well-defined, like AJs-AQs, KQs, maybe QJs/KJs (less likely). Then AKo. Maybe AQo. Plus small to mid PPs.

Range of cold calling 3bet and then calling a 1/3 pot flop bet is gonna be all pps (like 24-30 combos of 55/66-JJ/maybe QQ.) plus all flush draws (just the 3 combos of AKs/AQs/KQs) in his preflop range.

Dunno why you’re so worried about river decision when you’re good so often. Bet seems fine if you make it small, and you think he’s betting off his QQ on turn (reasonable). Only reason against river bet is if you think he has a bluff button, which it sounds he does not.

If you don't put him on a flush (even though the front door flush draw got there) and you don't put him on a nine, what can villain have that beats you? Conversely, what can he have that will call a value bet that doesn't?

I don't see any merit in checking the turn. Surely we're not going to check fold? Even if we are beat there is no getting away from our hand at this point. So why should we give a free card if we are ahead? More on the flop and all in on the turn. As played, all in on the turn.

Preflop and flop obviously fine

On the turn you have the virtual nuts with JJ and need more protection vs. a hand like KQhh than KK does. So I would pretty much pure bet JJ-QQ on turn and then if you want to mix in checks would do it moreso with KK/AA on the turn. I strongly disagree with the previous commentator on the sizing, I would look to bet around 30% pot again setting up around half pot river shove, I think setting this up for 3 streets makes it much harder for villain to play against.

As played on the river I strongly lean to betting and would shove, you block a couple of the flush draws and you want to put TT/88 types in a tough spot when you have KQo with a heart and go for it

Looks pretty good, imho.

Would've gone maybe $160ish OTF.

Once V cold calls the 3B, then calls flop with two checkers to the PFR yet to close action, I'd X river, heavily leaning toward a X/F.

Pre is good. I normally like flop sizing, but at this SPR I'm looking for how to get the money in on the turn, so I go just a little bit larger so that shoving the turn wouldn't be an overbet.

Even with our flop sizing I would still shove the turn. It's a slight overbet, but we need a lot of protection and we also frequently have the best hand. We'll value own ourselves versus QQ, maybe KK, but we can also get value from worse pairs, and can also deny equity/get them to put money in bad with A K/ A Q/ K Q/ K T/ Q T. I really don't expect 9x to be in villain's ranges.

I don't like checking the turn. As played I expect to be good here almost all the time given villain's check back on the turn. Even though it was a heart, it's still a good card for getting value from villain's worse pairs. I would still shove here.

Pretty much this. We have to fade 22 cards otr so I just don't see the point of checking the turn. We're turning our hand into a bluff catcher.

The main question is: How do we balance this line? Are we jamming our entire 3b preflop range in this spot? At what frequency?

Seems like you found the most straightforward outcome possible, OOP against an extremely strong range while near the lower portion of yours. Checking turn and/or river is about as routine as it gets, river is a supremely easy check when the FD arrives.

It's also kind of bad not to be aware (maybe you are and it hasn't been discussed) that IP is fully aware of you and the other 2 in the hand thus far and has zero interest in having any 4b range here. QQ+ is absolutely part of his range heading to the turn.

Those of you shipping turn and or riv are out of your minds, unless you're far cooler than I realize bc you're turning JJ into a bluff.

There is also nothing to suggest IP is going to be betting worse than JJ on this river often/ever.

So-far-passive Vs turn ck back range changes nothing in my eyes other than less 22 and unlikelier 44/9x now - but that's just a sliver of our concern. He easily can be protecting himself against our KK+ or reducing any FE he might create the times he has us near-dead.

Given everything you've suggested about Vs range I have no idea how you've come to the conclusion that the plussest EV is now to ship. Nothing suggests FDs and UPs are calling, so we're getting cry called by QQ+, snapped by quads, 22, and a some ambitious 44, seems horrendous. Yes, he likely has 22 always and 44 sometimes.

This was exactly my thought process in Xing turn and river. Well written.

Ranges for V ITT are a bit all over the place, with some fairly significant disagreements among posters. I find myself disagreeing with almost everyone.

First, I note that Villain flatted a 3-bet from the BTN. He never has any 22/44 or 9x. I’d stand by this read even for the crazy HTX games.

At the same time, I’m wary of saying that Vs preflop range is capped. A lot of players won’t have a cold 4bet range. So he does have QQ+ in his range pre, as well as TT, and to a lesser extent the mid pps 88/99. Then he has suited broadways, AK, etc. Probably AQo gets ditched pre (esp. if V seems like a cautious player).

For this reason, I don’t really understand the suggestion to jam turn. I think we’re running into QQ+ far too often.

I think it’s safe to eliminate KK/AA getting to the river, since both of those hands are going to raise flop some of the time, and when they don’t raise flop they’re going to bet turn for protection after Hero checks, given the flush draw.

The key question in this hand, which I don’t have a good answer for, is how often is QQ going for pot control and checking back turn? All I know is, if I were in Vs shoes against a standard opponent, I’d never check QQ on turn. I just don’t see a lot of Heros checking turn with KK/AA in this spot, and I’d reason QQ is the nuts. I’d jam QQ on turn along with whatever flush draws as bluffs.

If Hero were playing against me, he should think he’s usually good by the time he gets to the river. Holding the Jh Hero blocks a lot of the Broadway flushes. Idk whether the correct response is to check or bet river. I still don’t hate a small blocking bet against a cautious Villain who isn’t capable to turn a pocket pair like ThTx into a bluff.

If we do decide to check river, it does seem like a crystal clear check/fold. Don’t expect anything worse to bet for value, and V is never turning an underpair into a bluff since Heros hand looks like AK that has given up.

Yeah, we value own ourselves, but you're gonna have to do that if you want a high winrate. I expect both underpairs and flush draws to call the turn based on experience and population tendencies... If he folds a flush draw that's really not a big deal, it's a pretty big win to just take the pot down.

Right, so if we're betting turn why not just jam it? We are uncapped also. V can't feel great with QQ, especially if he has QhQx. Don't we want the fold equity against his FDs and AK, which constitute a decent % of his range here? It's possible we need FE more often than we value own ourselves here.

Also, we would be jamming our KK and probably our non-heart AA ott here in most cases. How do we balance our turn line given our uncapped range? Doesn't checking this turn cap our range and make it easier for V to play the river?

I agree with your river thoughts.

I have a far different experience to the point where a pot+ turn shove has an EV in the neighborhood of -100BB.

KK+ is entirely different.

Not capped? Yes we are, or at least we should be on 992 - checking turn doesn't cap us, it's the other way around.

That's a bit unfair for me to say bc I'm not accounting for the EV of our full turn shoving range. However, I just don't have IP guys stacking themselves w 88 and FDs in 700bb pots in any games I play. If so then by all means rip in TT+ FDs and print -- just so foreign to me.

I also think there is still this ridiculous misunderstanding to how powerful checking ranges are. All I see in this hand is that some people are ready to stack off 350bb on the turn near their bottom, fully capped... I don't see 'you'll never achieve a high winrate' ... it's the stone opposite.

Try to imagine if the exact same hand was played except the stacks are shallower but the open was to 2.5bb so the postflop SPR is the same: what is the difference?

It's not trivial to transpose the situation and we have to make some assumptions, but basically it comes down to: "facing the 2.5bb open, they should be wider preflop". However, since the open was to ~7bb and villain is probably continuing with a range that is wider than a theoretical one facing a 2.5bb open is, SPR is much more important than the absolute value of bb here. Thus, I absolutely can see lots of players calling off 88 here with SPR 2 on the flop. But live poker is all about adaptation, and as you said if that is not the case in your games, then bluff more here and value bet less.

But I'm talking about the turn that some guys want to pot+ in a spot where IPs range (as best we can guess from info provided/info OP has) is awfully strong if continuing against such a bet and we're capped.

Also, did you miss it's a 3b pot and V CC 35bb IP?

You're right about the BB to SPR importance, I was overexaggerating about the BBs to make a point about how it's still possible that this hand is considered 'deep' by the player IP that's been tight-so-far. It's de facto 2/5 but I'm still going to play my range correctly and 3b 1/4, pot+stackoff OOP on 992 w JJ is basically saying that I'm range betting turn, I just cannot imagine any of this is conducive to making money irl, let alone in theory.

No, again I still feel like you are attached to the absolute value of big blinds. Imagine this hand is literally the exact same, except it is a 5/10 hand 100bb online where it's a min open and a reasonably sized squeeze. Again, what is the difference? In theory the ranges are tighter for the 7bb open, but in practice they are usually quite a bit looser than the equivalent 5/10 scenario.

Must be talking past each other a bit. No matter the open, someone cold called a 3b, called a flop bet, and now we’re shoving into that guy? I won’t battle here I just am missing what you’re saying a bit — ultimately it’s not about anything other than actual dollars in this type of game anyway “eight hundred dollars” means more than ‘pot sized bet at 1 ish spr’ … I still think this plays deep idk

Results:

I decided to bet $190 to target curious smaller pairs and fold to a raise.

Villain thinks for a few seconds and calls with KK

It felt like an over play at the time where I kind of threw positional awareness out the window. I knew I might lose to QQ sometimes but I never expected to get shown KK.

Thanks for all the replies everyone.