So Im playing at a different location from my normal casino. I kinda think I messed up my read and got myself in a bad spot with JJ against a player i knew little about.

Villain:Older Greek or Italian looking guy, $400-450 ish stack no real clue about his play, Im sitting for 30 min and he hasnt shown any real aggression. a few calls, and a few raises which people folded to him.

Im in MP and have JJ folds to me I raise to $12 my effective stack is about $240
Villain OTB calls everyone else folds.

Flop is 446:

Pot is $27 I Cbet $16, Villian calls making the pot $59

Turn is a 7

I decide to fire another barrel putting him on possibly 2 overs, AX and possibly a heart or diamond draw. Im thinking my JJ is almost always good here, so I go for some value and bet out $26 making the pot $85. And Villain raises it to $100 making the pot $185.

I have about 1/2 pot sized bet behind if I call here. Im kinda narrowing his range to medium pairs, possibly 99,TT or a big ace flush draw, possibly a set. There are 2 flush draws out there as well as gaped connector straight with 58 or if he has a 5 hes open ended.



What do we do here????

Haven't read spoiler: Vs an unknown who's probably not a lagtard, I'd fold OTT. My ranging would be much different than yours. Seems like we get beluga'd way to frequently here. I don't see any hands with showdown equity like 88-TT raising here & the nut FD's are more likely to semi-bluff flop as they have more equity there. If we're ahead here, it's usually by a lot, but I think we're mostly behind FH or random trips.

edit: calling here and folding rivers is awful.

Dont post spoilers man. Its a 1-2 game i assume? I dont think jamming makes much sense here as the only time your called is when your behind. You dont provide much of a read and its still early in your sesh. No shame in folding a winner here but i dont mind a call and reevaluate river. Your turn bet seems small which makes his raise seem a bit big. As played wo some read i can prob find a fold here and look for better spots

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Didn't read spoiler, but flop bet and turn bet need to be bigger. Bet/fold for value IMO so when he raises turn you pitch it. As played I don't honestly know if your half pot bet didn't induce a turned flush draw to make a play on you. I'd fold but I would've been more confident of my fold if I bet more on both streets.

If you don't know how you're going to respond to a c/r, I don't like betting so small on the turn. Sometimes you will have induced a bluff but without reads you're just guessing as to when. Also he has a lot of pairs that picked up a straight draws, so I like to bet bigger and expect to get called down often. $40ish looks good to me.

Haven't read spoiler, but I probably sigh and release against him without a read.

Checking/calling and reevaluating isn't awful against and unknown either


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Hero oop

So like 3/4 pot? I did half / half. Hindsight 20/20 A check call on the turn would have been good also.

Flop bet is more acceptable than turn bet. Flop we are probing to see if villain has anything and trying to get value. Once he does call and the turn brings straight draws and flush draws we need to go for value against diamond draws, 5x, heart draws, and overpairs you still want to get value from 88-TT.

Most people would argue that if villain is calling 16 on flop then he's calling 20. Turn is the bigger grievance IMO, we should be making this at least 35+.

I read the spoiler. I have no self control. Just wanted you guys to know.

sorry, my mistake. I still think a non-inducing bet size is best.

Me too. I actually read it before finishing the OP.

I didn't read the spoiler but these raises usually crush one pair hands, and with two FD's, he wants to end the hand.

Edit: TBWT at it's best

..and then fold ya?

You overplayed you JJ, - No good!

Preflop OK
Flop still OK with an overpair

Going into the turn without improvement you got to think how to protect your stack. No matter how good and expert you are, and I'm not sarcastic here, I'm just saying that no matter who we are even a WSOP champion needs a hand at some point to take the pot away.

There are only 4 starting hands that perform excellent the more money goes into the pot early in the hand even if they must go from the preflop to the river.
AA, KK, QQ and AK. Excellent money makers. Of course with QQ and AK we got to be smart and read the situation determined by the sequence of action. (who's raising and how many bets he's making in a specific situation), the other 2 hands AA and KK makes no difference because we will push as much chips as we can to get away with. The more the better, and as early as possible.

grunch (haven't read thread or spoiler) this is a turbo-fold, it isn't close or marginal or difficult, calling and raising are both massively -EV.

how many combinations of 4x are in villain's range? against a rando live otb, at least 16 combinations of A4 and 54.

there are 13 combinations of 44, 55, and 77.

there are a sprinking of AA, KK, QQ, it's possible but very unlikely with this line.

what do we beat? some very weird spazzes/draws, but those are unlikely given the line, and they all have 30%+ equity against a bare JJ anyway.

villain raised into a two barrel, he wants to get the money in - against a live rando, that says he's pretty sure he has the best hand, which is minimally trips.

you really need to enumerate combinations of hands you think you beat to continue to put money into the pot. try to put actual odds on a semi bluff or a spaz (there's always a fuzz factor live, but... not really enough of one here to think about anything but folding). his range crushes your hand, he's never folding to a bluff, it's a very straight-forward fold.

edit: just a general point to take away from this hand - assume that your opponent is telling you exactly what they have with their actions until proven otherwise. Villain's actions are like, reaching across the table, grabbing you by the shirt, and yelling in your face that he has a hand he thinks is the nuts. There's no subtlety here, at all, until you see him play way out of line, fold in a weird spot after taking an aggro line, or table a bluff. Just get it out of your head now.

When people put in more than a min raise in live low stakes poker one pair usually isn't good.

Didn't read spoiler. Hand is played fine if you folded. No reason to think V is getting out of line here with 6x or 7x or Ax.

The reason why the turn bet is fine as sized is because we're targeting hands that can call that we're dominating. Is 6x really calling $60 here? Is an old guy gonna float 2 streets with naked overs? Probably not, get value where you can

Checking is terrible. This is LLSNL hold em. Do you think V is betting here with 6x often? Most times we check, V is checking right behind us

I didn't see the spoiler ?? where is it located ???

with a pair on the board and it being a raised pot the only hands I would put him on would be a low pair that flopped a set witch is a raising hand on the board, flush draw is also a raising hand possibly ? some people play them like that...maybe AA, KK or QQ

so only a flopped set or flopped quads and AA, KK, QQ beat your TT's so I actually would just gamble it up because he could be on a flush draw some of the time and will brick, he even could have over cards like AK and just jammed hoping you fold or he hits on turn or river

I kinda think its a call since not to much have us dead and we can crush a good amout of hands

Grunch: WP to turn, now fold. Didn't read spoiler, but please don't include them in the future.

I put the spoiler cause I see everyone doing it. i wanted to be one of the cool kids.

But ya, I butchered the hand at the turn.

I tell everyone I see with a spoiler that includes results not to. People just can't resist reading it and it biases advice. Plus even the folks who avoid reading the spoiler end up seeing references to it in other replies...