1/3 Graton, Saturday night. Table is pretty passive full of OMC's except for one crazy lazy to the left of me.

Villian just say down to the right of me, no reads except he looks like your your typical OMC. Villains stack is about 325.

Hero has been playing ABC poker, probably seen as a TAG up about 25 bucks from initial buy in, stack is about 325.

To the hand.

Hero OTB with JJ

UTG folds
UTG+1 raises to 7 (typical passive OMC)
Folds around to villian in CO calls
Hero OTB reraises to 20
UTG +1 folds
Villian calls
Pot (51-5 for rake=46)

Putting villains range about 66+ suited connectors/unsuited connectors 10J+

Flop Ks7sJ

Villian checks
Hero bets 30
Villian calls 30
(Pot=106)

Turn: Ks7sJ9

Villian checks
Hero bets 60
Villian reraises to 135

Hero?????

Flat and gii on every turn. He's probably got AA-KK (at least some if the time), 77, or AK. We want him to commit w/ AA and AK.

Hmm. Against a villain who just sat down I think we call/eval. There are OMCs and there are "OMCs with moves." This guy looks like the latter (given the action), so we may be able to range him a little wider.

Even if his range is very tight there are 8 combos of AA and 12 of AK vs only 3 of KK.

If we loosen it up a little we get to add KJ and flush draws, which is great. I don't think he calls worse preflop, but if he plays T8 then he also plays J9. Adding both if those hands only hurts our equity a little. (Or does it? We have outs vs. T8 and J9 is drawing dead to us.)

Can't fold a set here. 99 and 77 are more likely than KK, especially given preflop action.

You're sitting at a table with a bunch of OMCs and only one crazy person, and you selected the seat to the right of the crazy person (the only person in the game who could give you a tough time OOP)? Seat change, imo.

Any read on UTG+1 who just raised $7? When an OMC raises in EP, we shouldn't necessarily be pumped about 3betting yet (imo). However, his raise size certainly is small (perhaps indicating a small hand), and with some other dead money already in the pot plus us in position, I'd be cool with a 3bet if our read is leaning towards a weak hand. I'd probably make it a lot larger, perhaps even upwards of $55ish so I could stack off easily with an overpair postflop. I also don't think there is anything wrong simply seeing a flop here.

Our preflop 3bet size has actually set up a fairly gross spot postflop. We have a inbetweenish SPR where we can't really feel too comfortable stacking off postflop to an OMC, and yet we just gave this guy over 25x implied odds to stack us with a hand that might be a little face up. My initial plan postflop would be to pot control a street.

Oh, we're planning on flopping the ~nuts, that makes things easier.

I'd pot the flop. The board is drawy, he's an OMC that either has something or he doesn't, so let's just get the maximum out of him when he feels he has something worth continuing with.

Tough spot on the turn. A couple of draws did just get there. And OMCs don't check/raise without hands they consider the best. We are getting the required odds to chase, but if we call, could we ever fold the river to a shove if all the draws bust? And are we ahead of enough hands that an OMC could check/raise with that we are actually ahead of? In the end, I guess we're ahead of enough, can suck out enough if not, with a set in a "3bet" pot with ~100bbs, so I probably just jam and live with results.

Things would have been made much easier had we sized preflop and flop better (where we could more easily commit here).

GcluelessNLnoobG

Easy jam IMO...if he is willing to have Q10 and 108 he has several Two pair combos in is hand were ahead of...highly doubt he has KK or AA here given he flats the open and the 3 bet.

1) 3B higher

which will in turn make us

2) Bet more on flop (I'd make it around 3/4-PSB in this scenario)

which sets up stack sizes better to

3) Jam overtop.

Are you really going to flat this and have to think about calling villains river ship???

He most likely has AK, KJ, 77, or 99. I don't think he'd bet and call a 3bet with QT or J9. I'm shoving here all day.

grunch: shove

no draws are there yet except 8T so the only real fear is KK and if he's got that exact hand, good for him. his range is still draws (though if he's an omc this is discounted) and 2 pair that's trying to protect. he obviously likes his hand, and probably sees you as wild, so i shove for value.

To those saying shove: wouldn't it be better to just call here with a street to come and only one bet left? This would keep our range wider and keep him from correctly laying down a pair or even two pair. There aren't that many river cards that we hate. I think it's unlikely that he's on a FD.

Almost half the deck is a scare card which could kill our action or our hand (any spade for the flush, and Q/T/8 for the four-to-a-straight).

I think this is an easy shove. Even if we assume the worst we still have some outs. Villain is still unknown to us.

AA and KK seem less likely given pf action of flatting small raise then re flatting your small 3b. So it's KJ, 77 or QTss most likely. Combinatorically KJ less so since we hold blockers. And yes these guys occasionally show up with the less likely aforementioned AA and KK.

I seriously doubt this is AK from an OMC. I mean waiting until the OESD comes in to chk raise (and he doesn't have AKss) isn't the typ OMC move w/ TPTK.

I agree that our sizing has created awkward stacks. Any raise less than a shove leaves us pretty much forced to call a shove that is likely beating us. We just aren't deep enough to b/f 2nd set.

I'm searching for hands we beat that would c/r here. 77 is it unless he is spazzing or flatted AA then flatted AA again pf then flatted AA OTF then decided to c/r which I would never assume from an apparent OMC who just sat down.

Vs a range of only QTs and 77 we are actually a favorite. Even adding KK we are 40%. Since KK is prob less likely we can discount that a bit and figure we are somewhere between 40-50%.

So we are never folding. The question is how best to get all the money in with the hands that we beat. I think we have to do it here ott so let's just ship it in and hope we look a little bluffy.