Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBenfer
Not a pretty spot, but I think you played it fine to this point. I think a call is in order, but I'd hate doing it.
You describe V1 as a little tilty, but not crazy, so I think we can rule out 2-pair hands and straight draws on the flop. That leaves:
AK/AQ - he might play these this way and be trying to push you off your hand here. I think I would seriously discount the number of combos of these, but it is possible (especially depending on his state of mind).
AA - probably 4-bets, seems unlikely but possible.
KK/QQ - KK maybe 4-bets but especially if he is timid right now he might have waited to see if an A flopped. QQ is very reasonable.
TT/99 - Possible, although you have to discount these a bit if he's not willing to get all-in with them right now.
88/66/33 - 88 is definitely a possibility, although on a dry board like this he might decide to slow play. Did he allow others to catch up to his AA earlier? If so, he might be trying to shut this down right now. 66 and 33 are less likely PF, but if he gets to the flop the same reasoning would apply.
Bottom line for me is that I think you are beat more often than not, but your pot odds dictate a call. I don't have access to pokerstove from here, but I'm sure you can plug in the options and figure out a decent equity number here.
I decided to run the math using this range. Specifically:
2 combos of AK, 2 combos of AA, 5 of KK, 6 of QQ, 1 of JJ, 3 of TT, 2 of 99, 3 of 88, 3 of 66, and 2 of 33. Here are the results:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.178% 28.18% 00.00% 7532 0.00 { JhJs }
Hand 1: 71.822% 71.82% 00.00% 19198 0.00 { AdAs, AhAs, KcKh, KcKs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, QQ, TdTh, TdTs, ThTs, 9d9s, 9h9s, 88, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, 3d3s, 3h3s, AcKc, AdKd }
You have less equity than I would have estimated. You're getting 2.3:1 and if this range is close you need 2.4:1, which makes it a close fold. Obviously, you can alter how much you discount some of those combos and get a different percentage. If you assume he's playing tighter PF, for example, and eliminate 66 and 33, plus assume that he'd always 4-Bet AA, you get 34.7% equity and only need 1.9:1 to call. Feel free to check my math, because I'm a bit sleepy right now.
So, it really depends on exactly what range you assign to villain, but this is closer than I thought it was.