Had an interesting one this weekend in NH. Forgive my notation.

Hero has JdJc UTG+1 in 8-handed play. 1/3 NL. starting with ~$430. Opens to $15 (the standard, table is populated with 2/5 regs waiting for the 2/5 to start).

rolls to SB, a thinking player with ~$700 behind. SB 3! to $65. hero calls.

Flop 8h 3h Qc. SB leads, sizing down to $40. Hero calls.

Turn Qs. SB jams for ~$300 eff.

Is this a call pre? I mean he put in 65 pre here - I can't imagine he's doing this with 88/99/AJ/AT/etc. Furthermore by calling you're now in a very tough postflop spot where I don't see how you make money - you basically have a guessing game. Would fold pre.

I could see maybe 99+ and AJ, maybe ATs+. It's certainly close. I had been opening a little wide and had snap-folded to some 3! in front of this guy. I put a bit of stock into recent history for tendencies, maybe more than some budding GTO wizards do.

Yeah, could be a fold. Not an omc, a young guy with some moves.

I would fold pre if he's never or rarely 3bets, even a thinking player.

The results need to be posted at least 24hrs later, otherwise you get a lot of results oriented advice mixed in with real advice.

Also, take what players tell you later with a grain of salt. They will probably just tell you whatever they feel will help them in the next big hand you're in with them.

Please don't post results for 24 hours, even in a spoiler -- it biases replies.

I probably fold to the huge 3bet. We are pretty much set mining at this point. Fold is fine.

Even vs that range you're basically 50% - if you happen to be wrong you're 36% against a nutty range. Think its a clear fold without some extremely specific info and also take into account his sizing. Maybe this is his standard sizing but it could be unbalanced towards nutty hands.

Preflop, the 3bet is actually not huge, it is about 4x the open raise, which is the standard size from the SB.
What is on the larger size is perhaps your open raise.
Anyway, unless V is a nit, you have to call.

Flop is standard.

Turn is interesting. I don't see V shoving ~1.5 pot with KK or AA. On the other hand, he has also very few bluffs, basically some AXhh.
Unless he takes this line with 1010, I agree with the fold.

Set mining / calling down in weird situations like this.

Sorry about the results... as you can see I barely have posted here.

Thing is, we really can't set-mine with 415 back, facing another 50 to call. Still calling, as we will have position, we're closing the action, and I think H is ahead of an aggressive SB 3b range. I think floating this flop is fine.

At the turn, we have 325 back, with a pot of 210 ish, and then SB open-ships for 1.5x pot on the 2nd queen. 325 to call a total pot of 860, so we need to be good about 37-38% of the time.

Weird hand. Commitment at your 430 stack PF was about 150-180 or so. You've only put 105 in, so if V did have a Q, why not bet something you can call, like 70-90 or so? Still commits you, but it's a much easier bet to call. Are they that freaked out about a heart or a J on the river? Assuming you even open T9s UTG1.

I would want a read that SB is aggressive and tenacious with their 3b blind defense, but if they are, there's enough junk/heart draws vs Q-combos in their range, plus my belief that a typical V would be value-betting a Q smaller, that I think we're good more than 40% of the time.

Dgiharris would be adding my skull to his collection, admittedly.

Any live reads on the SB to help in making decisions here?

PRE - SB's 3B range could be wide or polar. I could argue for 4B'ing JJ if he's overly aggro. But flat calling with some stronger PP's and for pot control seems okay.

FLOP - I think we could raise-fold when he c-bets this flop, which wouldn't seem to smash his pre-flop 3B'ing range. He's not likely to have very many 2P or sets, but we could have QQ, 88, AQ and KQs. Doubtful he'd be c-betting QQ with this sizing when we could also have some over-cards + flush draws here.

TURN - Gross. My first instinct would be to fold.

But then again, it's hard to imagine he'd be jamming AA/KK/QQ or any Qx here, when we really don't have any AA or KK in our range, and most of our range that isn't trip Q's or better is going to fold.

I doubt he's 3B'ing pre with 33 or 88, rather than flat calling to set mine. Not sure if he'd want to jam turn if he did, as he'd only be targeting our QX for value.

I think he could have some bluffs here when he jams 1.5x pot, which is pretty polar. But his bluffs are mostly just AK. Maybe he's over-playing a worse hand for value, but I'd think that would only be TT when he 3B's pre, unless he's also 3B'ing 99.

JJ isn't much different than 99 or TT here, as we'd basically be bluff-catching. If we think he could play TT or even 99 this way, we're at the top of our range with JJ, so I think we can call if he's an aggro 2/5 reg.

If he's tight/passive, it's an easy fold.

Preflop, I call the three-bet without much thought. I would fold against a nit.

On the turn, it all comes down to how many value hands can the villain have, and how many bluffs. For value hands, there is one combo of QQ, one of QsJs, and two each of AQs and KQs, six combos total. The only natural bluffs I can see are the heart draws. If I were the villain, AhTh would also be in my range as well as AhKh and AhJh. For the price we are getting we need to be good 3/8 of the time, meaning that the villain theoretically ought to have three bluffs for every five value combos. There is one value combo too many, and so we are not good often enough to make the call.

Easy fold.

you dont count value and bluff combos facing a turn jam, thats a river thing where equity is static / binary

Keep in mind frequency as well - he's going to have value frequencies 100% of the time, but won't bluff 100% of the time.

Right, so on the turn the villain need even more bluff combos, and they just aren't there.

When do we find out what happened here?

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/s...87&postcount=3

Hmmm...I must have overlooked that. Thanks.