Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
JJ | 46.88% | 268,395,396 | 12,224,796 |
AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQ | 53.12% | 304,987,776 | 12,224,796 |
With $440 effective, calling the 3! Pre is bad. For a pure set mine I would want effective stacks to be at least 1K giving us 12.5/1 to hit. You have $20 invested in this pot. Your last read was loose passive. Unless he flipped his game in the past 6 months, you are behind and it's OK to fold and move on to the next hand.
And AP calling flop and folding turn is horribad.
With that said and at this stack depth against a reg thinking player, an option is to 4! To $240 pre. Most people only do this with AA or Kk and V should know that this size bet commits them post, so they have virtually no calling range. They either jam or fold. And most times they will fold QQ- AK. Hell, not long ago a guy folded KK face up to me.
Even if they jam, again at this stack depth, we need 22% and have 20%. Close enough. When you lose to AA just grumble something about kings always running into Aces as you muck. I also think this sized bet is better than jamming ourselves because it screams value.
Again, just fold or rely on FE and 4! pre. Then the rest of the hand plays itself.