Hand: Hero raises $25 with Ks7s in HJ in $2/5 game. BTN and BB call. Flop As10s2h. BB checks, Hero cbets $25, BTN calls, BB (a ghetto fish) raises $150. Hero jams $700, BTN snap folds, BB sighs and calls with A10o. Turn and river brick out.

Is jamming the nut flush draw okay here? I figured I'd jam sets and top 2 and would fold out a lot of Villian's bluffs (3s4s, QsJs) that often stab like half pot and take it down on the turn. I guess making this play on AK2 would be better? Granted, bb is most likely a fish (was first 20 minutes) and probably only has value on this flop raise. Also, I guess BTN can be flatting with like 22 here at some frequency. Is this jam a punt or a profitable high-variance play?

Cheers,
ringring088

Not sure if I like the pre flop raise, but I don’t hate it if stealing the blinds can happen often enough. If the BB and button are calling stations, “fish” as you indicated, I don’t know if I like this flop bet or the pre flop raise. I don’t favor inflating pots against players who don’t fold especially once you get x/r on the flop by BB. If button is decent, he’s probably fast playing a big hand, so it’s more likely a weak ace or broadway cards that called your flop bet.

I think more of a read is warranted on BB. A Fish to me is mostly opponents who call down with weak holdings, and if he’s never folding an ace on this flop, I think the 3 bet shove is bad. Fish who x/r the flop after a bet from the PF raiser and a button flat usually have big made hands. You would need evidence of this player x/raising flops with air or 2nd pair a couple of times or weak draws. And more evidence the fish is capable of folding.

Not sure I like your logic of getting 43 or QJ suited to fold is great as you are ahead of those hands. I would suggest hiding the results of the hand as well, maybe just end the readout of the hand at Hero jams $700, so it doesn’t influence answers.

I think I see what you were trying to do but you just picked the wrong circumstances to do it. Personally I wouldn't raise with K7. Your first to enter the pot so you want to bring it in for a raise but this hand I think is just too weak. You can hit the second nut flush but you can't hit a straight. If I'm doing this I would rather it be K9. After the flop I don't hate the Cbet but once you get check raised its time to be done. The player you described as a "fish" just c/r you. He's not folding. Your hand at this point is a semi bluff that already didn't work on the flop. Just can't bluff at fishy players. You have to play for value.

i mean just call ip. most people are not going to xr too much here and your hand really doesnt do that well if he wants to get it all in. if u want to jam over the xr i think you need a combo draw. also pre is too loose and you dont need to cbet the flop all of the time

I don't think this is a profitable jam here. You block spades and vs the player described it is not clear he raises less than 2 pair or if he is ever folding. Vs ATo, ATs, A2s, TT, and 22, we only have about 31% equity and need him to fold 44% of the time yo break even our bet is so large. Even if we had say KsQs and had 39% equity, we need him to fold 26% of the time to break even. What better is folding? I don't know that he even raises AQ here, but if he does, I also kind of doubt he folds. As played I would just call his raise on the flop.

I think this hand is good enough to open preflop from HJ, but I don't like the 5x sizing. I prefer 3x in 2/5, I think 4x is also defensible. 1. Give yourself an opportunity to cheaply steal the blinds. 2. Make BB calling range as wide as possible.

You would want to play K7s very cautiously if you hit a hand like top pair because you are going to be dominated lots of hands in BB calling range like KQ, KJ, KT, which he likely has all offsuit combos of. If our range is going to be that wide, we probably don't want to raise so large and bloat the pot. Suited kings have more value at deeper stacks and having a high SPR is good.

I just don’t think we should ever expect anyone to fold to a jam after he’s check-raised multiple opponents.

tl;dr Don't bluff into strength, you aren't getting folds.

Fish don’t fold. That is what makes them fish. You need to best hand them. Call, you might get a free card. Terrible move vs a fish.