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1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling 1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling

01-28-2014 , 09:06 PM
1/2 9-handed table. CO is a semi- loose reg who limps/calls many weak speculative hands, raises with premium hands and sometimes overplays worse hands..SB is table mark who calls 80% hands and seems very stationy postflop if he got any piece of the board.CO has about $ 350,SB $600 and hero has $360. Everyone folds to CO (villian1 )who raises $12,SB (villian2) calls,hero has JdTd and calls in BB.
Flop($36): 9c 4d 6d villian 2 (sb) checks,hero checks,villian2(co) checks.
Turn($36): Qh villian 2 checks, hero bets $25, villian1 calls,villian2 calls.
River($110): Kd villian2 checks,hero bets $100, villian1 raises to $200,villian2 calls $200. Hero folds,calls or shoves?which line is more +ev mathematically?

Last edited by maplestar; 01-28-2014 at 09:12 PM.
1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling Quote
01-28-2014 , 09:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maplestar
which line is more +ev mathematically?
I know one thing, I'm not folding a flush getting 6-1 odds. So my choice is between calling and shoving.
1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling Quote
01-28-2014 , 09:31 PM
Call or shove here. I don't think villain 2 ever has you beat here, Qxdd should bet turn and Axdd is obviously raising. You have the third nuts but look at the board and your hand. If villain 1 has a smaller flush, it would likely be a combo draw on that flop. Unless he is known to check combo draws, it's hard for him to have a smaller flush. Qxdd and Axdd make perfect sense with his line though and that's a lot of combos. Call me a nit but I'm probably flatting here. In game I probably shove for value though.
1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling Quote
01-28-2014 , 09:33 PM
CO can only have AQdd, A9dd, A8dd, A7dd, A5dd, A3dd, A2dd, Q9dd, Q8dd, Q7dd, Q5dd, Q3dd, Q2dd as the hands that beat us. There's a pretty good chance AQdd bets flop with 2 overs and NFD or raises turn when bet into. A9dd/Q9dd bets flop most of the time. A8dd/A7dd/A5dd/A3dd/A2dd/Q8dd/Q7dd/Q5dd/Q3dd/Q2dd are possible but V is said to limp speculative hands and raise premium hands so I'd remove Q8dd-Q2dd. So we're left with A8dd/A7dd/A5dd/A3dd/A2dd as the hands that beat us. But which is more likely, V checking behind the NFD after being the preflop raiser or V overvaluing his JTo? I would say that based on player description it's more likely he has JTo than the nut flush.

As for SB, he isn't flatting the nut flush on the river and it's pretty unlikely he check/called top pair + FD on the turn. And he is the stationy table mark so he has a hand worse than ours almost always.

So I'm shoving for value.
1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling Quote
01-28-2014 , 09:35 PM
Villain 1 obviously thinks he has a monster here and is never bluffing. If you think he can raise for value often without a flush here, then it's a shove for you. He could have JT, KQ or a badly played QQ, KK. I'd expect 9xdd and combo draws to bet flop
1/2 river flush facing raise and cold calling Quote

      
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