Hero $600 - been playing pretty straight forward - not showing down any garbage, and did lose a few hands getting coolered where I flopped the nuts and got out drawn but all the money went in on the flop.


Villian - $500 - Older lady who hasn't gotten out of line too much. She did 3b to $80 with 99 over a bunch of over callers of a $12 open which I did not think she would show up with that, but not out of line - but she did play pretty passively after the flop.

I get KT in the HJ and she goes $15 from UTG+1
I like 3b or call here but I choose call because it was a 5bb open
BTN over calls with a $100 stack (this guy plays way too many hands)

$48~
T54

She goes $40
I had some alarm bells going now because of the sizing but I don't see how I could possibly fold
BTN over calls too which is kinda annoying

$168
Turn 3
She checks
Hero???

I wasn't sure if I should just check back - getting check raised here would be a disaster but I could set up a pretty nice bet/bet and get her off an over pair.

Check back. Take your free draw to the backdoor flush. You may not need to bluff as you may have the best hands. And getting her off an overpair is optimistic.

Would be better to take the lead and potentially bluff river if you had clubs with no pair.

Would definitely bet turn - we are still 3 handed, correct? Feel like it gives us more options OTR.

I missed that this was 3-handed

Feels like JJ that didn't like the turn card (3 straight). Bet. I'd go $75.

Fold or 3bet pre

As played i would check

This is not the spot to try to get her off an overpair. First of all, she is almost certainly not going to fold an overpair. Overpairs in the hands of a recreational player here are very often going to bluff catch correctly for stacks or go broke vs a cooler.

When you bet here, you are betting for value, a little bit of protection, and to build the pot if you hit a flush. Vs this lady who I think can have a lot of very strong hands here, JJ+, who I don't anticipate is just cbetting every flop, I lean towards checking. If the villain is the type who will overcbet flops multiway OOP, then I think betting is probably reasonable.

Also, the button is left to act. Let the button think you are weak, maybe he jams, she folds, you call. Or button jams, she calls, you call. If button jams and she raises, then alarm bells should go off and we need to consider if we have odds with what I would guess are with 14 outs.

the type of person that bets 40 into 48 oop into 2 w an overpair on t54r isnt the type of person u want to bluff vs on a 3 turn imo

Button is super short. Just check and let him jam and see what she does. It’s fine if it checks around.

Just check back. We might have the best hand already, and can improve to a flush/2P or possibly bluff on a 2 or an A.

BTN might stab turn. She might fold. If BTN stabs, and she folds, we can check-raise jam on him.

I Check Turn and BTN checks behind

River 9

She leads for $50

I just think i'm always running into JJ+ here but i'm getting such a good price.

Part of me wants to just wants to fold. I think calling almost always loses as I doubt she turns a hand like AQ into a bluff on this run out.

I could raise or jam river but that would be pretty insane to turn this hand into a bluff.

Feels like a spot to fold.

Seems close. There’s a small chance we beat some value. I might call it off.

Don't think I get away for 1/3 pot. Could be a worse T. Even something like, "betting 9s to see where I was at on the flop, everyone checked turn so I thought my 9s were good." Seems like people will barrel overpairs a lot on the turn. A gutter did come in on the turn though so she may be pot controlling.

Turn - X back, unless you have a read, extremely doubtful she'd fold an OP on turn or river. Bet 80% pot into two others on flop.

River - fold. 1/3 players valuing river vs two opponents usually have it. Could've X turn to control pot, concerned about 76s, etc.

Not folding for that price, this is live poker after all and ive seen people turn up with enough weird things even if they are perceived tight.

99 would be a set on the river.

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I’m pretty indifferent to river. I probably call. V has some QT/JT as value we beat.

True. Still not folding for that price.

I dunno. She's an older lady who doesn't get out of line much. She opened UTG+1, and c-bet almost full pot into 2 opponents, from OOP.

Her turn check is a little weird, but maybe she was worried about A2 or 76. When the turn checks through, she bets less than 1/3 pot on a 9, possibly giving hero or BTN top 2.

Doesn't seem like she'd be betting worse than KT for value very often here, and that sizing doesn't seem like she's trying to buy it with AK.

ya for $50 really hard to fold and probably a bad fold considering the odds you are getting. I mean you lose 90% of the time but meh

I did end up folding though which is a mistake imo, but she always has it here right?

I still like the idea of entertaining a raise but not sure it works that often as i'd be betting the turn with those hands.

My reasoning is you don't call pot on the flop with top pair good kicker to fold river with TPGK to 1/3 pot after turn checks through. Does she always have it? Not necessarily.

This is a check. Youre probably well ahead, but betting the turn folds out a lot of cards you want to call, you dont need to protect as much because a K is an out for you, as is Jc Qc Ac, so only 9 cards you wouldnt be too pleased with. Board isnt too draw heavy, and its fine to get sucked out on sometimes. Im checking turn and betting smallish otr to value bet mid pairs.

I think you oughta call, but its close. I cant imagine JJ+ check the turn all that often, even if she does some, and she could at minimum have JT (and AT which beats you). You also cant overvalue your old lady read, especially if she 3b with 99, theres some low but non zero chance shes bluffing or doing something wonky. The guy behind kind of sucks to have, ebcause i think he folds QT JT once you call, so he only calls behind with better, but i still think youre good >20% of the time.

Id definitely be looking for folding or calling reads on the guy behind. (But he might be planning to call with QT JT before you end up calling

This is a marginal spot where i expect your equity to be close enough that this is only like a $3 error in either direction so i wouondt beat myself uo too much about which way i went with it.

Agree with this. OP, don't forget: it's OK to call the river and lose. If you never call the river and lose, that means you are folding too much. For this price, even if we lose 80% of the time, it's still a winning call. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if Villain showed up here with a hand like JTs, 88, or even AK.

While this sizing looks like value, it's been my experience that players are far more likely to bluff for small sizings than large ones (especially after we show weakness by checking back turn). And, again, we can even beat some hands that take this sizing for thin value or because they don't want to check and face a bet.