Background

We opened the 2/5 table in local casino with two weaker players and tight reg (2000 buyin) and me - I am recreational but might seem as reg to people. We played sometimes 4 handed - I bought in for 500 only cause was not sure if I can handle 4 handed against the reg, out of position at the beginning. Now table is full (8 handed) with other two regs and 4 weaker players. There was not much crazy play, regs try to not play against each other and get money from weaker players, and so did I. Made my stack to about 1400.

Main villain in the hand is the reg on the CO, who we opened table with. He plays always with about 2k even in 1/3 games. He sits always with big headphones, his vpip/pfr was probably lowest on this table. He is on the tight side, seems to know basic ranges and does not get out of line much - I have not see it yet, but played with him only twice for about 5 hours total.

Action

Preflop
Weaker players limps 5, winning reg makes it 25 on UTG+1 (1000), other reg thinks for a bit and calls on LJ (100), HJ folds, reg I described above 3bets to 100 on C0, BTN folds, I am in SB with KcKh and make it 325, everyone folds and CO calls. He covers me, I started with 1400.

Flop
Pot: 700, Qc 9c 7s, I cbet 175 into 700, BTN thinks and shoves. I have 900 to call into 1950 now.

Action? And also what range do I have here do you think in his opinion and what range can he have after that small 3bet against good reg from EP and overcall and then after calling big 4bet from me?

You have to call.

His range: AA, the other KK, QQ, AQs, 99, JTcc, JTss, AJcc/ATcc/ A5cc/A4cc/A3cc/A2cc.

His guess as to your range: AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, AQ, AK, A5

Since we don't have the diamond in our hand I usually lean towards a call, and if we had the diamond I would probably fold but AKdd does makes sense. These overbet jams in 4bet pots are hardly ever bluffs. It's either AKdd, or QQ, the bottom of his range is AA which we still lose too,

I'm alil confused about his read, you say he always has 2K in front of him in different games, then you said you only played with him twice for 5 hours total which isn't too strong of a read either way to justify calling or folding.

Another important factor is what's his read on you? What has he seen you play so far? Did he ever see you 4bet or at least 3bet? Does he think you know he 3bets light and therefore your 4bet would be lighter? It's the little things that make a bid difference.

This 3b range is too wide for the player described.

I saw him play on 1/3 tables I was not part of always with 2k+ in 100 chips mostly, which he did not get at that point from other players and couple weeks ago at another 2/5 which I left because was short handed and not good to play on in my opinion.

I think he sees me as not crazy and that my 4bet range is very tight herw especially with limper bad player with about 400 who can shove over and good tag reg on UTG1 who iso raised. So I would see me as JJ+, AQs, AKo. Nothing else to be honest.

Well I wouldn't expect that he thinks you would fold aces there (or even kings) so assuming he thinks you have aces or kings (it's gonna be the majority of your range otf besides AK, plus you can also have QQ in your range and he still jammed) I would just fold. He probably doesn't even think you'll 4bet with AK pre anyway.

Seems like an easy fold, especially considering you hold the K.

One of the few hands you were ahead of PF are now beating you and he could also have 99 some of the time although not sure how often he calls that spot w/ TT/99.

And imo he's never playing JJ this way.

The only scenario where you are ahead is if he goes HAM w/ AQ here, but you would probably have a better sense of that.

And the odd time he has the same hand as you so you fold to the chop.

Vs the villain you described I don't think I'm ever calling here.

Yeah he probably doesn't shove QQ like this, but probably not out of the question and he seems heavily weighted to AA.

The thinking I use in these spots goes like, "Do I look very strong? Yes. Villain is still shoving. Does he have any natural bluffs? Very few? With this combination of factors I favor folding."

I need to remember that last sentence every time I play. Every once in awhile I forget and it always stings.

Holding Kc and Qc on the board there are no bluffs in his range. AJcc /ATcc sounds unlikely given you saying he is kind of snug.
This looks like AA/QQ a ton. I'd fold. He could be bluffing with AQ hoping you'd fold AA/KK, but I'd need a much firmer read on the player that he is capable of this level.

Without looking at other posts I would say this is a call. The board favours him but its too draw heavy. I don't know about the cbet either, I mean I know you're supposed to cbet more frequently in 3-bet pots but less so from OOP, I'd almost rather x/r AI or have it go x x and see a brick turn before putting in stacks.

Nice analysis so far. One thing no-one has mentioned is the cbet sizing. Some players will consider your down-bet on the flop as a sign of weakness and try to exploit it. This is may be more probable if the reg perceives you a weaker rec plays who telegraphs their strength by their bet sizings.

In theory this is a call but in live practice I'd bet fold and feel great about it. You're beat here.

Lol.....If he is calling this size 4bet with Most of those hands you described he's just bad.

May I ask, what is the significance of having vs not having a diamond on this particular board?

Sorry I meant to say club. Since there's two clubs otf, if we had the king of clubs in our hand we would block/discount FD's to less combos, so he would be more likely to have sets/two pair vs a draw. If we don't have the club, he has more FDs in his range.

I agree with this and was reason why I folded. Just felt a little if it was not weak.

My thinking of his range was very tight and did not see a lot of cc combos there, perhaps AJcc/ATcc but nothing else. So I put him on AA and QQ. Only problem with QQ I have is that I dont understand why he would not just call and then call or shove on the turn.

Table broke after few hours and he told me he had QQ, but I do not get it as I mentioned above. So still not sure if it was or was not good fold.

Thanks for replies to everyone.


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