I'm not bluffing, I hit top pair FFS !
12-13-2015
, 03:25 PM
Quote:
This hand can play so many different ways. Let's start over and ignore the c/r.
A c-bet does many things. It can get value from 43s, 54s, 33-55, 6x, 77-99, Ax. Those hands are much less likely to give us value on so many turn cards - so targeting value on the flop is optimal. A c-bet can also get folds from some of those hands. We prefer a call, but if villain won't call, then a fold is next best. We don't want villain to freeroll us. For example, if he'll fold 33 to a c-bet and will only put chips into the pot on a later street if he binks a 3, then a c-bet that folds 33 is a fine c-bet. But yes, a call is even better.
Like I mentioned above, the c-bet also gets villains to fold some Ax and probably all disconnected Kx and Qx. Getting villain to abandon some % equity is a good outcome, and again, if villain has K9s or w/e, he's usually giving up on the hand on a later street anyway unless he binks a K. Allowing him to get to the turn with those hands doesn't do any good, and getting him to fold the flop with his overcard equity is good.
J7s isn't much more than a bluff catcher here. At the time we see the flop, we do almost always have the best hand with top pair. But it's not a hand that can get much value vs. worse or call bets against villain's "value" hands. So I'm particularly inclined to c-bet, which does have a value component but also has an important bluff component.
There are many similarities with A4 with A62, but that is a spot where I'd almost always check the flop. In that spot, we also very likely have the best hand, and we also can't get much value vs. worse. We also can't call off multiple bets vs villain's "value" range.
However, A4 on A62 is quite different for a few key reasons. For one, people fear the A-high flop, and I don't expect a c-bet to get value from hands like 33-55, etc. We also (of course) can no longer get value from unpaired Ax. For another, and also important, the turn can never be an overcard to our top pair hand - in other words, if we have the best hand on the flop (and again, we very often do), villain very rarely has any meaningful equity. A4 on A62r is very similar to KK on A72 - both are textbook WA/WB.
The J7s hand is not WA/WB especially because we can get more value vs. worse on this texture in this dynamic and because of the dynamics associated with turn cards (A,K,Q).
Another benefit of the J7s c-bet is that it gives us a ton of options on the turn in position. I expect villain to fold to our flop bet often, call it sometimes, and c/r it very rarely (hence, let's ignore the c/r for now). When he calls, a lot of things can happen on the turn. We can turn a flush draw if we have the back door draw. We can bink two pair or trips (debatable whether trips is a cause for celebration or not). The turn can also come an overcard to the board, which may or may not also give us a flush draw.
On the turn, we can consider a) checking back blank cards; b) value betting when we (rarely) improve; or c) even barreling as a bluff on scare cards, especially ones that give us draws. Barreling is a bit tenuous because overcards can improve the hands we want to fold (i.e. a turn K improves KJ), but I'd want to consider it, and we can in position.
As played, it is an easy fold to the c/r. If you saw villain do this in the past with a weaker hand "for information" or w/e, that's different. But until you have such a read, I don't think it's that close. I think the 3x raise sizing is also important. Sometimes you see a smaller raise to "see where they're at," which can be a bit weaker and of course gives you better odds to peel one bet. At this time, I'd assume villain wants to play a big pot.
A c-bet does many things. It can get value from 43s, 54s, 33-55, 6x, 77-99, Ax. Those hands are much less likely to give us value on so many turn cards - so targeting value on the flop is optimal. A c-bet can also get folds from some of those hands. We prefer a call, but if villain won't call, then a fold is next best. We don't want villain to freeroll us. For example, if he'll fold 33 to a c-bet and will only put chips into the pot on a later street if he binks a 3, then a c-bet that folds 33 is a fine c-bet. But yes, a call is even better.
Like I mentioned above, the c-bet also gets villains to fold some Ax and probably all disconnected Kx and Qx. Getting villain to abandon some % equity is a good outcome, and again, if villain has K9s or w/e, he's usually giving up on the hand on a later street anyway unless he binks a K. Allowing him to get to the turn with those hands doesn't do any good, and getting him to fold the flop with his overcard equity is good.
J7s isn't much more than a bluff catcher here. At the time we see the flop, we do almost always have the best hand with top pair. But it's not a hand that can get much value vs. worse or call bets against villain's "value" hands. So I'm particularly inclined to c-bet, which does have a value component but also has an important bluff component.
There are many similarities with A4 with A62, but that is a spot where I'd almost always check the flop. In that spot, we also very likely have the best hand, and we also can't get much value vs. worse. We also can't call off multiple bets vs villain's "value" range.
However, A4 on A62 is quite different for a few key reasons. For one, people fear the A-high flop, and I don't expect a c-bet to get value from hands like 33-55, etc. We also (of course) can no longer get value from unpaired Ax. For another, and also important, the turn can never be an overcard to our top pair hand - in other words, if we have the best hand on the flop (and again, we very often do), villain very rarely has any meaningful equity. A4 on A62r is very similar to KK on A72 - both are textbook WA/WB.
The J7s hand is not WA/WB especially because we can get more value vs. worse on this texture in this dynamic and because of the dynamics associated with turn cards (A,K,Q).
Another benefit of the J7s c-bet is that it gives us a ton of options on the turn in position. I expect villain to fold to our flop bet often, call it sometimes, and c/r it very rarely (hence, let's ignore the c/r for now). When he calls, a lot of things can happen on the turn. We can turn a flush draw if we have the back door draw. We can bink two pair or trips (debatable whether trips is a cause for celebration or not). The turn can also come an overcard to the board, which may or may not also give us a flush draw.
On the turn, we can consider a) checking back blank cards; b) value betting when we (rarely) improve; or c) even barreling as a bluff on scare cards, especially ones that give us draws. Barreling is a bit tenuous because overcards can improve the hands we want to fold (i.e. a turn K improves KJ), but I'd want to consider it, and we can in position.
As played, it is an easy fold to the c/r. If you saw villain do this in the past with a weaker hand "for information" or w/e, that's different. But until you have such a read, I don't think it's that close. I think the 3x raise sizing is also important. Sometimes you see a smaller raise to "see where they're at," which can be a bit weaker and of course gives you better odds to peel one bet. At this time, I'd assume villain wants to play a big pot.
12-15-2015
, 03:01 PM
