Hi all,

2/5, rec opens UTG $25 and you have AA UTG+2 and 3! $85, SB (old rec WG) cold calls, UTG folds. HU $900 eff.

Flop ($190): 4-5-6r. You bet $125, SB calls.

Turn ($440): 2r. $300, call.

River ($1140): 7. Your move and why, based on V's range pre that gets to the river? Results later.

Thanks,
DT

Shove.
Based on description I expect this guy to have JJ-KK almost always.
If I’m wrong, I don’t get too worried about it.

Are the positions described correctly? We seem to be acting before the Sb post flop. Thanks!

AI for remaining $390. There are 6 combos of 88, which I don't think the opponent is checking, but many more of over pairs.

I'd X flop at some frequency, and use smaller sizing at other times.

+1 - SB x to us all three streets after cold calling UTG open and UTG+2 3b. He shouldn't have any sets or 88/78s. Our hand is face up, if Hero thinks V can have a set or 78s/88 then V is letting him x behind too much. There would need to be tons of reads between these two to x/c river by V with a set or an 8.

Its a close one. I think villains 3bet calling range is mainly pocket pairs and AJ+, KJ+. By the river Hero has about 57% equity against 44-QQ so a shove would be best EV

SB checked all three streets.

So I was counting combos and I assigned V range of 66-QQ, AK (I think even this V will 4! KK) and by the river it's looking pretty good. I can see 77-88 continuing more often with their straight draws, and both of those got there otr, I think V folds 99 and some TT/JJ ott for our sizing. So we beat some TT and JJ, QQ (12 combos), lose to 66/77/88 (12 combos). It's closer than I though.

I guess the point of this example was, in general when you only beat about half of V's range by the river, do you jam anyway, check, or (if it were an option here - it isn't) bet small? Personally I prefer to bet smaller to get calls out of the weaker part of V's range with the ability to fold if it turns out he has us beat. Anyone else?

No, you dont jam in this situation. If you beat half of the hands that get to the river, and if you shove, then he'll fold some portion of hands that you beat (TT will probably always fold). So you beat less than half of his continuing range. For the jam to be +EV you need to beat more than half of his continuing range.

Bet small is 0EV at best, so that's a nope. If you don't beat more than half his calling range you should never bet. Check and take your showdown.

This range analysis is way off. Not all overpairs make it past the huge turn bet, so river range is way off. As for preflop, a typical Old WG isn't cold calling a 3! with KJ, KQ, or AJ. Maybe AQs is the bottom of his range. 2/5 players are usually aware enough to recognize the strength of 3bet ranges at the LLSNL level. Even Dumbos range is too wide in my opinion. In my games this is AK and 88-QQ (with 88 and 99 folding some of the time). For tighter OMC types this is just AK and JJ-QQ.

After their river check, I would range Villain on JJ/QQ and a reduced frequency of 88/TT. Not all 88 (if any) are represented preflop, some of those 88 which are represented preflop will donk jam river, and not all TT call turn. Given those assumptions, I expect us to be good 90%+ of the time on this river. It's a pretty clear jam to me, and I expect we'll be looked up by QQ a decent chunk of the time.

What ended up happening?

Results.

So most people say jam, we beat most of V's range. Okie-dokie.

Well, turns out V cold called w/A8hh and got there. V jammed, SB snapped. Loser of hand had just lost a big flip AKs v. QQ and was probably a little steamed because he said "what were you doing calling? Pre, flop?" I told him V could have had 88 too. No matter how tilted you are, not nice to berate the rec players!

In these spots instead of a verbal reprimand I prefer a well-timed Phil Ivey jaw drop:

Wow. Forget postflop tendencies (draw chasing). If he's this wide preflop then he has all 12 combos of sets (44-77), and 6 combos of straights (33). River shove is clearly way too ambitious. Would it have been possible to develop a few reads on this dude in the prior hours of play and ascertain that he gets out of line pre or post? Just one or two showdowns should be enough to tag this guy as a maniac.

Berating this guy is way OOL. The worst thing for the game is if the player feels ashamed and racks his chips and leaves. I would drop my jaw, look to my neighbor for sympathy, and just say "nice hand".

I mean, funny hand, but I dont know what value there is in reviewing hands like this. We've all seen it, but when deciding on whether or not we jam river, I dont know how much we consider A8 here. Of course they can have it. I tend to agree that its usually an overpair. Occasionally a set. Once in a blue blue moon its A8, or even dumber like Q8s. A3 also shows up ya know...doesnt mean we still dont ship river with the sights on JJ, QQ etc.

:grunch:

Is this not an easy shove? Shove and get called by TT-KK?

By the time you get to the river you have to call if he donk shoves anyway so the decision is on the turn imo. I guess i can see an argument for checking the turn since betting again might fold out some of his overpairs, but I still think you probably make more by bombing it. I have to do the math when i get a chance but overbet might be optimal.

On the one hand you say he's folding some of his overpairs when we bomb turn, on the other hand you say he's donk shoving with some of his overpairs? Both assumptions can't be true. Lol @ you have to call if he donk shoves river. No LLSNL player is donk shoving with worse than a set/2pair and all his draws get there. You think he can have any bluffs in that spot?

Player with AA should actually be happy for the action he got. You make money from hopeless chasers taking the worst of it.

Why can’t V fold his 88,99,TT to a bomb but then donk shove his JJ-KK when no overcards hit the river?

Also, as someone upthread mentioned, the order of action is all jacked up. Preflop has hero in position yet post flop has us acting first each street. Clarity on that is important.


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As I mentioned upthread, sb checked all three streets.

I saw, thanks for clarifying. I don’t see how H is doing anything but shoving this river. Checking Seems like giving up a lot of value for the rare time some weird V wants to try and Johnny Chan you.


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I would shove for sure, the results make me want to bet thinner for value not tighten up

Far too many check back these spots instead of going for some value.