2/5 game with a couple of really weak spots.

2 bad players in EP limp. They each have about 1000 and I have them covered. They will call down with 2nd pair, make hopeless bluffs, overplay showdown strength hands, etc...
I make it 25 to go with KdTd from MP to try to buy position and isolate the bad EP limpers.
Button, both blinds, and both EP limpers call. I have no read on the SB but he is shortstacked - started the hand with about $320.

5 to the flop.

Flop ($125)
7d 9h 3c

SB bets 25. One of the EP limpers calls. I decide to peel one since I'm getting 7:1 odds and I think any of my 5 outs are good and I should get paid on my BD flush. Button also calls.

Turn ($225)
Ts

SB bets 70. EP limper folds. It's on me.

Should I raise here to knock out the button and get it all-in against the SB? Should I just call and let him keep betting into me? Make him think I'm on a drawy 78 type hand? Did I peel too loose on the flop and should I be kicking myself now?

Ugh. These are exactly the kind of hands that I used to end up going broke on. I'd make one weak peel, semi-hit the board and end up calling down with one pair and end up hanging myself.

More reads on the SB would help - including how aggressively he plays his draws - but even without the info, step back and think about it. The SB has put in over a third of his stack already, with pretty much zero prompting from anybody. We have to assume he'll put the rest of it in if we raise. So we probably don't have any fold equity.

So the question is, do you think he's bad enough to commit his entire stack with a hand *worse* than a pair of 10s?

If so, raise away. Otherwise it's a very clear fold and wait for a better spot.

Just fold. I would call turn if he bet those ridiculous amounts, like $30. $70 is almost 3x the size of the flop bet, so I'm guessing he has it.

Fold, I think you peeled too loosely OTF. I think PF is good.

You have no read on SB, whose PF call probably is weighted toward a pp due to stack size. The only reasonable pp we are ahead of is 88, which I can't see playing this way.

He lead light into multiple opponents perhaps hoping to induce a raise OTF, then lead the turn. He has put $120 of $320 in, so we can assume the rest goes in OTR.

Pre, if we're getting 4 callers, bet more to really isolate the fish.

Flop I probably just fold. No guarantee you have any clean outs (KQ, 10 9, etc have you hurting right now), you have no draw, and you are definitely behind. Why put yourself in a tough spot? Also backdoor draws have rather limited value against a short stack.

My read is V is shoving river given stack sizes, so your play should probably be a shove or fold. Call is bad. I agree your hand strength is hidden, but I'm not sure I want to stack off here.

Given zero read on SB (and I mean zero) that means he probably hasn't been too wild. Harder to put on air/draws.

Fold. That short stack is on a milk run, and you caught just enough to self-trap.

CLIFFNOTES: Don't like the float, as played, call turn and call river. If V checks river V bet 1/3 pot.

So here are the problems with your float.

#1 If you hit a King your kicker sucks
#2 If you hit a Ten, the Ten also hits the range of hands that bet/call flop.

I'd be more supportive of a float if you had AK, AQ, KQ or even JT, J9, J8 type hands because you can hit a gut shot or two pair and stack a weaker two pair (only need 6:1 implied odds to chase a gut shot).

The problem with KT here is that its not like someone is going to stack off with J9 vs your KT unless they are just an ubber drooler. So, what this means is that if someone is willing to stack off, odds are you are up against two pair or straight...

The pot is pretty big and the SB donk bets out into you so this comes down to post flop play.

There have been plenty of times where i've floated in this situation and the key factors were:

I have a good read on V
V will fold to escalating pressure
There are plenty of draws on the board I can rep on turn/river
V will fold to any scare cards
V is partially scared money
V will only put me on AK and will stack off light if I hit a T

Overall, floating in this spot with KT is meh at best. The SB donk bet is weak so there is potential to steal later but by calling you've also signalled that you are weak.

SB $70 donk bet on turn is interesting as its right on the line between a weak value bet and a probe bet. I suspect V has at least a 9. Since you floated and hit your card might as well call. I wouldn't raise because you don't want to fold out hands you beat.

River is also a call. I wouldn't get cute on river and raise for value or anything like that. If SB checks river then bet 1/3 pot

but overall, meh, don't like the flop float for reasons I've stated, but since you hit your ten and EP folded, call down is okay.

Thanks for the responses. I feel like I've been playing a bit weak-tight in spots like this and not peeling enough in position when I miss flops and someone bets weak into me.

Your arguments have convinced me that this was a poor spot to do so.

But on with the hand:

I call.

River: ($365)
2c

SB shoves all-in for about $200.

uggghhhh

Too much equity to fold now for less than a PSB.

Make the crying call and pay him off.

If you trust your read on the flop, you should now call.

However, it seems like a bad read to me, especially since the T also makes a straight for 86.

Furthermore, your pot odds should be playing an extremely small role in your thought process.

I don't like your peel because you need runner runner for a straight (which isn't concealed), your backdoor flush draw isn't any good vs Ad9d, one of your outs completes an up and down straight draw, and most importantly K-10 is dominated by 9-10 here.

One of the best things I implemented in my game was to fold whenever I need runner-runner to win

I can't tell you how much money that has saved me.

Winning poker isn't about winning every single situation, but rather picking the right battles.

But once you call that turn bet, you are stuck.

dgi, I'm really confused, because I can't for the life of me figure out why you are advocating a call on the turn when we know there is a very high likelihood that the rest of the villain's stack is going in (and we'll be pretty much forced to call) and we still have the button behind us. Especially when your reasoning kinda comes down to, "well, you floated and hit your card, so...".

If we call and button raises what do we do? Even if button folds we still face a likely shove on the river - do we want to stack off with TPGK? Against the SB with no reads, that has bet into multiple people twice now? Surely there has to be better spots to stack off.

so this hand is giving me a headache.

DGI - you're advocating a call on the turn with the intention of calling a <PSB on the river. Given that he only has approx $225 behind when the pot on the river will be about $270, this means our plan is turn call, river call and river bet if checked to.

We're doing this because we think we're ahead of his range?

If we think we're ahead of his range, why aren't we re-raising the turn, betting for value? Solely because we think there's more value in keeping Villain in and then calling the river shove?


As I analyse the hand, it's hard to think of hands other than sets that Villain holds that called pf and then donked the flop which now are ahead of us on the turn so I think that we probably have the best hand

Hmmmm....

sorry if i'm coming off as confusing.

My point is simply Hero has this awesome plan he put in place, float to hit his card...

So, when we make our awesome plans then we need to follow through with them.

Its my belief that not following through with our plans is more -EV than this particular situation.

Imo, once hero calls turn he is committed to calling river and paying off this villain. Hero only needs 27% equity to call this river and I think KT has the amount of equity required to call here. So, we only have to be good here about 1 in 4 times.

TO be clear, I think the turn and river call are awful and I did state that flop is a fold. But just because something is awful doesn't negate the equity, and I think we have enough equity to call here.

As I stated, its a crying call followed by a well deserved KITN.

You cant call on the flop with two overs and then fold to a turn bet when you hit. Either fold the flop or call/raise the turn. Your choice depending on reads.

(obviously sometimes a plan fails, and you get a read on the turn. If that's the case, you should be folding turn based on the read)

Basically my exact point but much more succinct

OK, I get the point of 'sticking to the plan'. Except that I don't think the OP's plan was 'float the flop and take the pot away on the turn'. From the OP:

(I might actually be missing something bleedingly obvious, but if he thinks any K or T is an out, doesn't he have 6 outs?).

Anyway, if he thinks hitting the K or the T was 'good', and he hit a T on the turn, then he should have -raised- the turn for value.

I think just calling the turn is a mistake especially with the button behind us. I think the only play that makes sense here is raise/fold.

Once we get to the river it's probably a puke call due to pot odds, but I think we put ourselves in a really difficult position for no real reason.

yes Dragon, I'm with you - thanks DGI for explaining reasoning.

interesting example of how a seemingly meaningless $25 float/mistake on the flop ends making Hero pot committed for an additional $300 by the river