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I have a full boat ... I have a full boat ...

06-10-2014 , 12:06 PM
9 handed Live game at the RIO during WSOP.
500 NL 2-5 blinds.
Villian young 20ish kid seems solid.

Villain has me covered over $1000.
Hero $950.

Hero Kd10s

5 handed see a raise of $15 before flop 10h10c5h
Villian bets $45
Hero Calls , Everyone else folds, Heads up to the turn.
Turn Kh
Villian checks
Hero bets $100.
Villian Calls.
River Ad
Villian Checks
Hero bets $200
Villian thinks about it then raises $800 effectively puts me all-in.

Hero pukes and tanks.

Is the river bet/fold? or bet/cry call?

Is there another line?
I have a full boat ... Quote
06-10-2014 , 09:30 PM
You need to give more info on PF action
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06-10-2014 , 09:35 PM
Call. Given description, this can be a bluff with JJ-QQ, also some value shoves with flush. Your hand looks like an overpair, which makes A a great scare card. I think V reps your hand often and overplays lower tens too.
I have a full boat ... Quote
06-10-2014 , 09:40 PM
This is a really tough spot.

I'd click call.

Every villain value hand beats you - AA, KK, AT. 7 combos.

I think KK and AT are discounted a bit because of the turn check/call. AA makes a bit more sense as a turn check/call because it's a bit of a bluff catcher vs. your range.

You're getting a bit more than 2:1. I probably can't fold. I do think this is a line he might take in turning a showdown value hand into a bluff given that he cannot bluff catch the river and it's very unlikely you have a very nutty hand (maybe you have an absolute monster, but you probably never have AA or KK after calling pre-flop, TT unlikely obv).

QhQx and JhJx are a good 6 combos of worse made hands I see check/calling turn with the pair + draw and seeing if you can check down the river and then bluffing.

No idea if he'd bluff with those, but either way, this is a really tough spot.

I'd just click call.
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06-10-2014 , 10:22 PM
This is so gross. This feels a lot like AA or AT...COULD be 55 or a bluff.

I would need a lot more information about pre flop but damn, i think i puke call
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06-10-2014 , 10:37 PM
Whether V was the one who opened pre will play a big role in whether or not to call. If he just called a raise pre and didn't 3-bet, we can discount AA and KK from his range here which means we only lose to A10 and since we have a blocker to a 10 I'm never folding here.

If he opened to $15 though is a different matter. I'm not saying I'm folding even if he did open but it makes the decision a lot easier IMO. Also any previous hand history you've seen of V would help.
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06-10-2014 , 10:37 PM
You don't describe your own image here, but in this case I really don't think it matters. You can't fold here. All the hands that beat you are extremely likely to bet the turn, so it's a little weird that he'd check. Also, most of the hands that beat you raise the turn with a decent frequency. Not to mention that KK and AA probably bet out more OTF and would often size a little larger PF. I don't really like this spot either but there's no way I'm gonna seriously consider folding here against a young solid player.
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06-10-2014 , 10:39 PM
Pre flop action is completely crucial here.
If villain raised pre flop 55 is discounted and AA makes a lot more sense.
If he didn't raise pre flop I would say that he has AA here never.

No matter if he raised or not AT can be very possible here. And if we are beat, I'd really say that's the only hand.

Did he donk out? What position is he in? These are all crucial to getting a good analysis on ths situation.
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06-10-2014 , 10:48 PM
I assume villain is not the pfr'er.

I guess we have zero reads either from before the hand nor physical reads in the hand.

Could he bet 45 on 75 with a heart flush draw, maybe with oc's? I guess, but why just check call the turn hitting and then risk a river check though to check raise now that more boats are possible. Maybe but only with the nut flush while he puts you on a smaller flush.

Could he do this with any full house putting you on a flush. I think doing this with pocket 5's is pretty adventurous. He has played this just like AT(a little less like KT but still possible), slowing on the turn scare card, rivering boat and going for a cr.

550 to win 1365 I guess? ~2.5:1. In the moment I don't think I can get away from this but it's probably a fold. If there is any history of him making big bluffs this is never a fold.

I don't know why Willy discounts AT, flop trips top kicker and bet to check call when a flush draw could have gotten there on the turn, he rivers boat and goes for a check raise. AT seems pretty standard to me.

Edit: I don't know what RIO is but if "during WSOP" increases the likelihood of him being a tourney player then we have to call river.
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06-11-2014 , 11:15 AM
Reads: he was sitting next to his girlfriend at the table coaching her. Which makes me even more think this is never a bluff so only value hands. If that's the case I'm only chopping or losing. As I think he never raises with a flush.

Villain wasnt preflop raiser also.

My image probably solid we haven't tangled so he has no reason to think I'm capable of big folds. So I have to have a hand here trips or better.

Feels like I'm tieing or losing here given analysis but so hard to fold lol.

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I have a full boat ... Quote
06-11-2014 , 11:30 AM
Long term though by making this call would it be profitable cause these situations don't come up too often and if there is still small percentage of time they are bluffing or value raising wider folding boats in a cash game is just considered bad?

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I have a full boat ... Quote
06-11-2014 , 11:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gametime
Reads: he was sitting next to his girlfriend at the table coaching her. Which makes me even more think this is never a bluff so only value hands. If that's the case I'm only chopping or losing. As I think he never raises with a flush.

Villain wasnt preflop raiser also.

My image probably solid we haven't tangled so he has no reason to think I'm capable of big folds. So I have to have a hand here trips or better.

Feels like I'm tieing or losing here given analysis but so hard to fold lol.

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I think he had a flush. Does he have any reason to think that YOU have a boat? I am sure by the river he puts you on a ten, possible he did so from the flop. But it seems like you assume that a shove means he has your boat beat. I think since you had K-10 and two tens came down that makes AT really unlikely. I could be wrong but it also seems like a weird line for Aces.

Based on that I think he had a flush. I actually think the fact that he was at the table with his g.f means hes more likely to try to bluff or take down a pot where a lot of his money is involved. I keep thinking he raises the turn with A-10 being scared of a flush.
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06-11-2014 , 11:56 AM
this is most likely not a bluff. But he did check the river to an OP who he doens't really know... would he value lead out on the river with tens full of aces? I know I probably would, instead of risking a check-check.

Since he flatted fp A10 with his line makes sense, if he flopped a full house with 55 I don't think he would c/r 4x with that run-out. To me I would be calling hoping to chop which usually ends up losing. I know if I was hero I would find a call especially since he checked the river and 4x raises are sometimes looking to fold people out on a scary board compared to a 2.5x value raise.

Knowing if he donked out on the flop is crucial in narrowing his range a bit.
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06-11-2014 , 11:59 AM
I was about to write fold but then you clarified villain wasn't the preflop raiser
I'm snap calling here and feeling good about it
If villain is capable of ch/raising the river with the goods, he most certainly can also take a ch/ raise line on the flop with AT
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06-11-2014 , 12:02 PM
Also there are No ATss and I doubt he plays ATo preflop...he folds or 3bets some percentage of time
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06-11-2014 , 12:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
Also there are No ATss and I doubt he plays ATo preflop...he folds or 3bets some percentage of time
Dude 1-2 and 2-5 players limp/call w AT off all the freakin time lol
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06-12-2014 , 12:24 PM
My actually read at the table was he had either AA, KK or A10 more towards A10 with the lead bet on 10 10 board.

So on the river Ace I can't check a full house here he might have a flush or just trips. But when he came over the top I was now pretty sure he had the goods. But I couldn't fold it after thinking for a bit.

Villian shows A10 but not to sure how I feel about folding such strong hands in cash game as there is some percentage of time they are bluffing and maybe be value betting wide or we are tieing. I would hate myself if some wizard was just bluffing here and made me fold a full house.
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