Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepStack bMAC
Ok so since the A is a non heart there are a lot more TP+FD hands that may call you raise ott. I've also included hands that are unlikely like 66-77 that if he had he severely misplayed. I wanted to get a conservative equity number.
PokerCruncher-iPhone V.6.2.2
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 66.9% 63.9% 6.06% [AcQc]
Player 2: 33.1% 30.0% 6.06% {KK-66, Ah8h+, Ah5h-Ah2h, 9h8h, 7s6s, 7c6c, 7d6d, A9o+, 76o}
Board: [As 6h 7h 2c Kd]
Deal To: River
Dead Cards: {}
Monte Carlo Simulation: 250000 trials
So you are def way ahead of his range.
I think the A being a non-heart pushes it more towards a fold than a call. Now there are a lot of Ahxh hands that have showdown value and are not betting the river.
Your range seems a bit off to me too. Does KK-66 mean it includes 88 thru QQ? If so, I think those should be taken out. The only Ace high flush draws that should be included are AhKh and Ah2h, imho (and I think AhKh usually bets the turn). A9o to AJo should be taken out as well. I can see the possibility of AQ being played this way by BB.
I missed the info in the OP that BB might be a grinder. In that case, I'm assigning BB a tigher preflop range. I'd estimate his range on the river to be roughly 10 value combos (a couple sets, and mostly 2 pairs), and 5 bluff combos (mostly missed flush draws with an inside or open ended straight draws). So it looks like your getting the odds to call.
tl;dr - I'd call, but it's close.